Record High Inflation Mentions, Clorox Shares Collapse 11% As "Generational Inflation" Wrecks Demand
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The US is currently experiencing a record surge of mentions of "inflatiion" on corporate earnings calls, which according to BofA calculations soared by a mindblowing 1,100% Y/Y to a record high. For those who have been hoping the inflation pressures are transitory it seems to be gaining in intensity. Many corporations have seen very strong margins due to the monetary intervention however Clorox doesn't seem to be so lucky. Clorox shares crashed as much as 11% after reporting net sales and adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed even the lowest analyst estimate. Worse, the company forecast a decline in 2022 sales as pandemic-fueled demand for its cleaning products wanes while sticky commodity prices eat into its margins.
They posted sales of $1.8 billion in the company’s fiscal fourth quarter - lower than investors’ expectations - and the clear result of a collapse in demand amid surging prices. And a testament to just how "transitory" inflation will be, for the current fiscal year, which began in July, the company expects organic sales to decline by 2% to 6%. It sure looks like at least one company sees soaring prices as quite non-transitory.
Wells Fargo analyst Chris Carey agreed with this dour take writing that "we’ve been arguing that sell-side estimates were far too high and CLX needed a reset on FY22 estimates before investors could become more constructive... the reset came, but it’s a far bigger cut than was contemplated by most."
Carey's next statement is something which central bankers everywhere should heed: warnings about “generational inflation and unpredictable” product demand, the Wells analyst warned that there is a growing need to be conservative, adding that CLX set an outlook it believes it can hit. But the fiscal 2022 forecast is probably way below most, if not all, investor models, and “low visibility on near/medium-term delivery would certainly be a key takeaway this morning,” the analyst notes.
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