Rays vs Mariners Predictions, Picks, Odds: Slugfest in Seattle

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The Tampa Bay Rays (57-28) made history in Game 1, storming back from a 4-0 deficit after three innings to win a 15-4 blowout. How will the Seattle Mariners (38-42) bounce back in Game 2 on Saturday?
Looking at the MLB odds, Game 2 is anticipated to be a pitchers’ duel between Tampa’s Tyler Glasnow and Seattle’s George Kirby. Check out why I’m dubious about that expectation for my best bet, and read on for my full MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Mariners on Saturday, July 1. 
Rays vs Mariners odds Rays vs Mariners predictions
To my eyes,...

The Tampa Bay Rays (57-28) made history in Game 1, storming back from a 4-0 deficit after three innings to win a 15-4 blowout. How will the Seattle Mariners (38-42) bounce back in Game 2 on Saturday?
Looking at the MLB odds, Game 2 is anticipated to be a pitchers’ duel between Tampa’s Tyler Glasnow and Seattle’s George Kirby. Check out why I’m dubious about that expectation for my best bet, and read on for my full MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Mariners on Saturday, July 1. 
Rays vs Mariners odds Rays vs Mariners predictions
To my eyes, Rays starter Tyler Glasnow is a player whose on-field production has not matched his significant off-field hype.
I understand the hype — he’s a special talent that will be a force to reckon with . . . if he ever puts it all together. He’s struggled tremendously with injuries, however, and his return this year has been unremarkable after missing half of the 2021 season and nearly all of the 2022 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The tall right-hander is electric on the mound, ranking 13th among starters with a 117 Stuff+ metric over at FanGraphs. He had a terrific 30.5% career K-rate, but his 4.03 career ERA does not meet expectations for someone who is talked about as an elite pitcher. Everyone loves the swings and misses, but what happens when opponents make contact?
While Glasnow has no trouble making batters miss, he has one huge flaw — surrendering an exorbitant amount of hard contact. 
The 29-year-old hurler ranks dead last among all players with a gargantuan 17.4% barrel rate — yikes! He ranks in the seventh percentile in hard-hit percentage, too, so it’s no surprise that his BABIP is all the way up at .328. While his ERA (4.46) has only suffered so much, his 5.26 xERA does indicate darker days are ahead if he doesn’t fix this issue. 
For a pitcher that relies on blowing away batters so much, it’s concerning that his average fastball velocity of 96.2 mph is way down so far in 2023. That’s the slowest his fastball has been in over five years and is well down from the 97.6 mph he averaged in a small sample last year. 
On the other side, Mariners starter George Kirby’s 3.33 career ERA over his first two seasons is very promising. Most of his underlying metrics aren’t so rosy, however. The right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in nearly every metric other than velocity, chase rate, and walk rate. 
Kirby’s in the 21st percentile in xBA, 33rd percentile in xSLG, and 16th percentile in Whiff%. While he’s been able to compensate for those deficiencies against lesser teams, he’ll have a more difficult time doing so against Saturday’s opponent. 
Tampa Bay has had the best offense in the league this season by most statistical measures. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Rays have been an Over team this season, mashing their way to a 47-34-4 O/U record. They’re in fine form, ranking sixth in wRC+ (127) and seventh in wOBA (.345) over the last 10 days. 
I think this Over can be reached in a few ways. Glasnow’s profile is circumspect, while Kirby faces the best offense in the league. I therefore will be playing the Over considering the total is all the way down at 7. My best bet: Over 7 (-120 at DraftKings) Rays vs Mariners same-game parlay Over 7.5 Glasnow 4+ hits allowed Rodriguez 2+ TB We’ll use our best bet as outlined above for the first leg of our SGP. This format requires...