MLB Home Run Derby 2023 Prop Picks and Best Bets: First-Round Fireworks From Vlad, Mookie

MLB Home Run Derby 2023 Prop Picks and Best Bets: First-Round Fireworks From Vlad, Mookie Pleas Subscribe For Daily Sports Betting News

Bet at MGM - IF YOUR BET LOSES, YOU’LL GET UP TO $1,000 BACK IN BONUS BETS - https://bit.ly/BetMGM1

Want To Place a Bet .. Download the Best Online Sportsbook! (IOS) http://bit.ly/453YUZG

Grab Barstool Sports Apparel @ The Official Barstool Store: https://bit.ly/barstool23

Bet On All The Big Games @ Xbet: https://bit.ly/xbetnow
First Deposit Bonus Up To $500 + $10 Casino Chip

Please Subscribe!
Prop bet #1: No home cooking
This is going to be an unpopular play, particularly for those in Seattle. But I’m fading Julio Rodriguez in this year’s Home Run Derby.
Yes, I know the derby is taking place in his backyard at Seattle's T-Mobile Park. And yes, I know J-Rod was electric in last year’s event at Dodger Stadium, blasting 63 home runs in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals vs. Juan Soto.
But last year’s J-Rod is not this year’s J-Rod. Part of the reason for the Mariners' struggles is because Rodriguez looks...

Prop bet #1: No home cooking
This is going to be an unpopular play, particularly for those in Seattle. But I’m fading Julio Rodriguez in this year’s Home Run Derby.
Yes, I know the derby is taking place in his backyard at Seattle's T-Mobile Park. And yes, I know J-Rod was electric in last year’s event at Dodger Stadium, blasting 63 home runs in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals vs. Juan Soto.
But last year’s J-Rod is not this year’s J-Rod. Part of the reason for the Mariners' struggles is because Rodriguez looks like he has taken a step back in 2023.
The right-handed slugger still hits the ball hard but doing it with consistency has been a problem this year and consistency is king in a derby setting. Rodriguez has hit a mediocre 13 home runs this season and has seen his some of his other power numbers drop considerably. 
The M’s centerfielder has an expected slugging percentage of .436 which ranks in the 61st percentile and a barrel rate of 9.8%, which is in the 63rd percentile. Sure, those numbers are fine but rank near the bottom of this year’s competitors and last year they were .460 and 13.8%. 
The matchup doesn’t do Rodriguez any favors, either. He’ll go up against two-time derby winner Pete Alonso in Round 1. Now, Rodriguez and Alonso faced off in the semifinals with Julio outslugging Pete 31-23 but I think the Polar Bear has the edge this time around.
As a two-time winner, the Mets first baseman knows what to expect in this competition. No one has hit more derby dingers than Alonso. He also has the record for the most home runs hit in the first round with 35.
On top of that, he has been the more consistent power hitter of the two this season. Alonso ranks in the 95th percentile in xSLG and the 91st percentile in barrel rate. He also has the edge over Rodriguez in expected home runs, average home run distance, and no-doubter percentage (that rate in which home runs would be home runs in all 30 ballparks).
I get the hometown angle with Rodrigues here, but the fact is he’s been arguably the most inconsistent home run hitter in the field this year. I like the Polar Bear to exact some revenge on J-Rod this year, which means just one round for Rodriguez. I’m taking the Under on Rodriguez’s total home runs at 28.5. Julio Rodriguez prop: Under 28.5 total home runs (-125 at DraftKings) Prop bet #2: Vlad, Mookie put on show
For my money, Mookie Betts vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the hardest first-round matchup to predict. That’s because I believe both Betts and Guerrero have an excellent chance to lift the trophy Monday night in Seattle. 
Betts enters the Home Run Derby as the third seed after an incredible first half that saw him swat an awesome 26 dingers and lead the National League in slugging. Betts may say he doesn’t have a swing for the derby but I still believe he can put on a good show.
While his home runs don’t always go the furthest, he does a better job of putting power on the ball at a more consistent level than arguably anyone in baseball. 
The former MVP is the leader in this field in xSLG, sitting in the 97th percentile. He is also in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity and the 83rd in barrel rate. Additionally, 42.3% of his home runs are no-doubters. That’s the fourth-best rate in the field. So, while Betts’ dingers may not be the biggest bombs, they aren’t exactly Yankee Stadiu...