Tim Scott for Vice President?

Tim Scott for Vice President?

https://uselectionatlas.org/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/11/20/in-a-rising-number-of-u-s-counties-hispanic-and-black-americans-are-the-majority/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_majority-Black_counties_in_the_United_States

Black-Majority Counties in South Carolina: Allendale, Williamsburg, Lee, Orangeburg, Bamberg, Marion, Fairfield, Hampton & Marlboro

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/marioncountysouthcarolina,bambergcountysouthcarolina,orangeburgcountysouthcarolina,leecountysouthcarolina,williamsburgcountysouthcarolina,allendalecountysouthcarolina/PST045222 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/marlborocountysouthcarolina,hamptoncountysouthcarolina,fairfieldcountysouthcarolina/PST045223 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/marlborocountysouthcarolina,hamptoncountysouthcarolina,fairfieldcountysouthcarolina/PST045223

Counties in SC that are Black PLURALITY: Richland, Dillon & Sumter https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/sumtercountysouthcarolina,dilloncountysouthcarolina,richlandcountysouthcarolina/PST045223

Let us run the numbers for SC in every statewide election since 2016 in the BLACK MAJORITY counties first & see how Tim Scott fared vs. Republicans in general. The elections we’ll cover are POTUS (2016 & 2020), Governor (2018 & 2022) & U.S. Senate (2106, 2020 & 2022). The Senate 2016 & 2022 elections were won by Tim Scott.

2018 SC Gubernatorial, Henry McMaster: Allendale 608 (raw vote total for Republican) 20.98% (% of votes cast for Republican) 2898 (total votes cast for all candidates) *** Williamsburg 3774 * 32.66% * 11,554 *** Lee 2,174 * 34.14% * 7,608 *** Orangeburg 9,222 * 30.09% * 30,643 *** Bamberg 1,552 * 35.42% * 4,382 *** Marion 3,963 * 38.03% * 10,421 *** Fairfield 3,409 * 36.74% * 9,279 *** Hampton 2,558 * 38.62% * 6,624 *** Marlboro 3,166 * 40.76% * 7,767

Out of a possible 91,176 votes, McMaster received 30,426 (33.37%)

2022 SC Gubernatorial, Henry McMaster: Allendale 562 * 30.88% * 1,820 ** Williamsburg 3,858 * 39.4% * 9,792 *** Lee 2,116 * 40.27% * 5,255 *** Orangeburg 9,501 * 36.28% * 26,191 *** Bamberg 1,736 * 43.59% * 3,983 *** Marion 3,846 * 45.7% * 8,416 *** Fairfield 3,658 * 43.48% * 8,413 *** Hampton 2,665 * 47.34% * 5,630 *** Marlboro 3,209 * 49.09% * 6,537

Out of a possible 76,037 votes, McMaster received 31,151 (40.96%)

2016 POTUS Donald J. Trump: Allendale 789 * 21.97% * 3,592 *** Williamsburg 4,864 * 32.31% * 15,054 * Lee 2,803 * 34.37% * 8,156 *** Orangeburg 11,931 * 30.66% * 38,910 *** Bamberg 2,204 * 35.47% * 6,214 *** Marion 5,444 * 38.13% * 14,276 *** Fairfield 4,027 * 35.74% * 11,267 *** Hampton 3,488 * 39.61% * 8,806 *** Marlboro 4,267 * 41.07% * 10,389

Out of a possible 116,664 votes, Trump received 39,817 (34.12%)

2020 POTUS Donald J. Trump: Allendale 835 * 23.24% * 3,593 *** Williamsburg 5,532 * 34.61% * 15,985 *** Lee 3,008 * 35.68% * 8,431 *** Orangeburg 13,603 * 33.01% * 41,205 *** Bamberg 2,417 * 37.29% * 6,482 *** Marion 5,711 * 38.84% * 14,704 *** Fairfield 4,625 * 38.11% * 12,136 *** Hampton 3,906 * 41.98% * 9,305 *** Marlboro 5,044 * 44.07% * 11,446

Out of a possible 123,287 votes, Trump captured 44,681 (36.24%)

2020 U.S. Senate Lindsay Graham: Allendale 833 * 22.97% * 3,627 *** Williamsburg 5,409 * 33.77% * 16,018 *** Lee 2,939 * 34.83% * 8,438 *** Orangeburg 13,221 * 32.04% * 41,259 *** Bamberg 2,373 * 36.63% * 6,479 *** Marion 5,562 * 37.76% * 14,728 *** Fairfield 4,556 * 37.53% * 12,139 *** Hampton 3,755 * 40.37% * 9,301 *** Marlboro 4,775 * 41.66% * 11,462

Out of a possible 123,451 votes, Graham captured 43,423 (35.17%)

ALL THE ABOVE RACES: Out of a possible 530,615 votes, Graham, Trump & McMaster (5 statewide contests) got 189,498 votes or 35.71% of all votes cast.

2016 U.S. Senate Tim Scott: Allendale 796 * 23.45% * 3,395 *** Williamsburg 5,138 * 35.5% * 14,473 *** Lee 2,727 * 34.66% * 7,868 *** Orangeburg 12,256 * 32.12% * 38,153 *** Bamberg 2,159 * 35.55% * 6,073 *** Marion 5,500 * 40.48% * 13,586 *** Fairfield 4,265* 39.37% * 10,832 *** Hampton 3,265 * 39.34% * 8,299 *** Marlboro 4,132 * 41.26% * 10,015

Out of a possible 112,694 votes, Tim Scott received 40,238 votes (35.7%). Virtually equal to the above races I covered.

2022 U.S. Senate Tim Scott: Allendale 585 * 32.34% * 1,809 *** Williamsburg 4,047 * 41.53% * 9,744 *** Lee 2,209 * 42.16% * 5,240 *** Orangeburg 10,024 * 38.35% * 26,136 *** Bamberg 1,820 * 45.86% * 3,969 *** Marion 3,952 * 47.18% * 8,377 *** Fairfield 3,883 * 46.59% * 8,334 *** Hampton 2,825 * 50.21% * 5,626 *** Marlboro 3,308 * 51.0% * 6,486

Out of a possible 75,721 votes, Tim Scott received 32,653 votes or 43.12% of all votes cast in 2022.

For Tim Scott’s TWO SENATE races (2016 & 2022) he received 72,891 votes of a possible 188,415 votes (38.68% of all ballots).

Granted, one of Tim’s elections was a midterm, which always has lower turnout, but he did slightly better in 2016 than Trump did & much better than McMaster did in 2022 in those Black Majority Counties.

Tim Scott moved the needle among Black voters in South Carolina (mostly in 2022), can he do the same thing if he was Donald Trump’s Vice President in places like Philly, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Detroit, Pontiac, Flint, Grand Rapids, Atlanta/Fulton County?

How about Tim Scott’s performance in those Black PLURALITY counties (Richland, Dillon & Sumter) vs. other Republicans in statewide races?

2018 SC Gubernatorial, Henry McMaster: Richland (total votes for Republican) 41,793 (% for Republican) 29.55% (total votes for all candidates) 141,438 *** Dillon 4,052 49.45% 8,194 *** Sumter 14,578 42.35% 34,426

Out of a possible 184,058 votes, McMaster received 60,423 (32.82%)

2022 SC Gubernatorial, Henry McMaster: Richland 41,008 32.2% 127,368 *** Dillon 4,341 54.85% 7,915 *** Sumter 14,292 46.59% 30,677

Out of a possible 165,960 votes, McMaster received 59,641 (35.93%)

2020 U.S. Senate, Lindsay Graham: Richland 58,894 30.33% 194,187 *** Dillon 6,297 48.08% 13,096 *** Sumter 20,524 41.92% 48,960

Out of a possible 256,243 votes, Graham received 85,715 (33.45%)

2016 POTUS, Donald Trump: Richland 52,469 31.1% 168,722 *** Dillon 5,637 48.19% 11,698 *** Sumter 18,745 42.52% 44,086

Out of 224,506 votes, Trump received 76,851 (34.23%)

2020 POTUS, Donald Trump: Richland 58,313 30.09% 193,822 *** Dillon 6,582 50.24% 13,101 *** Sumter 21,000 42.93% 48,920

Trump received 85,895 of 255,843 votes (33.57%)

In all the elections above, Trump, McMaster & Graham received 368,525 votes out of a possible 1,086,610 votes (33.91%)

2016 U.S. Senate, Tim Scott: Richland 66,736 40.35% 165,408*** Dillon 5,743 52.59% 10,921 *** Sumter 19,462 45.08% 43,173

Tim Scott received 91,941 votes out of 219,502 votes (41.88%)

2022 U.S. Senate, Tim Scott: Richland 46,989 37.19% 126,355 *** Dillon 4,456 56.53% 7,882 *** Sumter 15,100 49.4% 30,566

Tim Scott received 66,545 votes out of a possible 164,803 votes (40.37%)

In both those elections combined, Tim Scott received (158,486 of 384,305 votes) 41.23% of the vote.

In the TWO Senate races I covered for all the above counties (Black Majority & Plurality) Tim Scott received (231,377 out of a possible 572,720 votes) 40.39% of the vote.

In ALL the counties I covered above (Black Plurality & Black Majority) McMaster, Trump & Graham received (558,023 votes out of a possible 1,617,225 votes) 34.5% of the vote.

If Tim Scott could move the needle half that much nationally among Black voters in the right places (Fulton County & a few other counties in GA, Philly, Pittsburgh, Pontiac, Grand Rapids, Flint, Detroit, Milwaukee, maybe some cities in Virginia, which could put that state in play perhaps), Donald Trump would cruise to his 3rd POTUS victory.

Most of the time, the VP selection is a lot of pomp & circumstance, a lot of show but it doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. Tim Scott could be a difference maker indeed.