SpaceX SN9 Failure Analysis (with SN9 and SN8 footage comparison)

**(Please note that this analysis was posted prior to the release of information regarding the failure of the second raptor engine to ignite during the landing sequence, which was the proximate cause of the loss of the vehicle. My point that SpaceX still needs to fundamentally adjust the timing of its Flip Maneuver a few seconds earlier, and a few kilometers higher up (to allow time for contingency response) is still valid. I believe they will have to do this eventually because it costs them nothing to do so but substantially reduce potential failure points during the landing cycle.)**

This is an analysis of the likely causes of failure that resulted in the destruction and loss of SpaceX's SN9 prototype on it's first suborbital test flight. We believe main causes of failure were: 1) The highly complex and dangerous flip maneuver needs to be performed at a significantly higher altitude to allow for last minute corrections and adjustments. At minimum, the spacecraft needs to be fully returned to a vertical attitude well before the final descent burn takes place. 2) The unreasonable and overly restrictive FAA bureaucratic interference in severely limiting the allowed flight ceiling. At the allowed 10km imposed on SN9, SpaceX may simply not have had enough altitude to complete it's complex Flip Manuever and landing sequence. 3) If there was a last minute engine reignition failure prior to landing, as is now reported to be the case, then a higher altitude would have provided time to try ignition of an alternate engine to safely land the spacecraft; or in the worse case, time to abort and eject the crew (a possible future capability). You can clearly see the difference between the SN8 landing (with a 12.5km ceiling) and this SN9 landing (with a 10km ceiling). SN9 did not even have enough time to finish its swingback to reach verticality. Originally the ceiling for these flights were proposed to be at 15km+.

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Science & Technology (playlist): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLo0xLtfR_Oi0iBBuoIjudhpxSU7wPFcFJ

Credit: Original live feed and video is courtesy of SpaceX. It can be found here: https://www.spacex.com/

On the afternoon of February 2, 2021, SpaceX attempted to duplicate it's prior groundbreaking SN8 Starship prototype launch, this time to a slightly lower 10km ceiling. Starship is the proposed second-stage of a fully reusable earth to orbit launch system that would significantly reduce the high cost of orbital launches and enable the eventual settlement of Mars.

The Starship is itself only a second stage. It is to be launched above a Starship Heavy Booster. As envisioned, the Heavy Booster will return to earth and land vertically in the manner of current SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets. The second stage Starship however, will be able to reach orbit with sufficient fuel to deorbit and reland using a novel aerobraking mechanism whereby it reorients into a horizontal inclination during atmospheric reentry with the use of its four flaps, raptor engines and cold gas thrusters. Just prior to landing, it reverts to a vertical orientation, reignite its engines at the final moment to decelerate to touch down vertically.

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