GlobalForecaster

Tom Bodrovics is once again joined by global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the interrelatedness of China and Russia and the possibility of more conflicts around the world. Murrin explains the Kondratiev Cycle of economic turmoil and how it has manifested as a war between NATO and Russia over Ukraine. He warns of the dangers of lateral thinking predators like Putin and Xi and paints a scenario of what an unstable future could look like if Ukraine loses the war. He argues that the Biden administration is the root of the problem and that NATO needs to go on a wartime footing and provide essential equipment to Ukraine. Palisade Radio Links: ► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca ► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024 ► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c Murrin highlights the danger of World War Three, suggesting that it looks more like a hot war than a Cold War. He speaks of the White House's effective use of oil caps to deplete Putin’s treasury and the irony that Europe is funding Putin’s war in Ukraine. He also discusses the development of AI and quantum computing and how it is leading to an arms race between China and the United States, with the Chinese ahead. He speaks of Putin's Achilles heel- the fact that Russia’s demographics are in decline, and how Brexit was an attempted revolution in thought, but it failed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Murrin also talks about inflation, saying that it is the signal from nature that tells us that systems have become tired and old and need to be changed. He believes that the surge of inflation will decrease demand and lead to commodity constriction due to Cold War, bifurcation and conflict. He talks about the BRICS Plus alliance and de-globalization, and the idea of turbocharging growth through productivity and innovation. Finally, he gives his long-term targets for gold and silver and encourages everyone to be bold and recognize problems to create a cascade of change and demand for change. Time Stamp References: 0:00 - Introduction 1:00 - China, Russia & Conflict 6:10 - Prigozhin & Wagner 10:00 - Leadership & Thinkers 12:46 - Ukraine & Putins Goal 17:05 - World War III 24:14 - Supply Constrictions 26:26 - Europe, Russia & Energy 31:32 - Putin's Achilles Heel 35:05 - A.I. Singularity 42:30 - Better Leadership 49:10 - Cycles & Inflation 53:05 - Dollar & Currencies 59:10 - Inflation & Trade 1:02:16 - Rising Rates & Bubbles 1:07:32 - Bonds & Money Printing 1:09:56 - Ratchet Risk Model 1:12:14 - Gold & Silver Outlook 1:17:54 - Ukraine & Geopolitics 1:22:50 - Concluding Thoughts 1:30:07 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode - David Murrin warns of the dangers of lateral thinking predators like Putin and Xi and the need for NATO to go on a wartime footing to protect the West. - The arms race between China and the United States over AI and quantum computing and the need for lateral leaders to adapt and move forward. - Possible gold targets and the importance of demanding change from government. Guest Links Twitter: / globalforecastr Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/ David Murrin is a polymath with an extensive career in the oil exploration business and the finance industry. He began his career in the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands, engaging with local tribes and exploring the mineral composition of the region. At JP Morgan in London and New York, he identified collective human behavior on the trading floors. In 1991, he founded JPMs European Market Analysis Group and then co-founded Emergent Asset Management, where he was CIO and Chairman of Emvest, Emergents African land fund. In 2011, he took full control of Emergent, managing the Geomacro fund and acting as CEO until 2014. David's career has focused on understanding collective human behavior and using it to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets. He has written four books and is a sought-after speaker and advisor. #DavidMurrin #WW3 #Leaders #NATO #China #Russia #Ukraine #LateralThinking #AI #QuantumComputing #Brexit #Putin #Wagner #DeGlobalization #USdollar #Inflation

David Murrin discusses his system of forecasting global geopolitics and market trends, which takes into account the stages of empire and imperial decline. There is a rhythm and drumbeat to war which has a bigger cycle of 112 years. We're looking at a struggle between maritime (lateral) democratic governance and landpower (hierarchical) autocratic governance. Democracy is weaker than its ever been. America entered the fifth stage of decline with 9/11. Western leadership is blind and driving the world to war, we're over the brink. WWIII started with the invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East is now on fire, and the last piece of the puzzle is when China chooses to go to war. Decline (e.g. USA) means the fracturing of systems and less to go around. We will continue to see de-dollarization, high inflation, and higher oil and gold prices. Bitcoin, blockchains, and crypto are temporary safe havens that will eventually collapse. We shouldn't worry about Davos Man. View More at davidmurrin.co.uk

If you thought Nigel Farage is bullish about post-Brexit Britain, meet David Murrin. This global forecaster of geopolitics and financial markets takes us through why, and how, he believes the UK is about to boom. And let me tell you, a lot of it will come as a surprise to the rest of the world, let alone this country. Find out why Brexit was “truly the greatest escape”, how dangerous China and Russia really could be, which empires are in decline, and which industrial empires could be about to strike, in this video with Nigel Farage and David Murrin… You can find out more about David here: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/ Or head to any of our media sites

Considering recent global events, it couldn’t be a more foreboding time. The volatility of this cycle has been significant. Economically, the stages have played out as expected. We’ve witnessed land prices follow the same repeating pattern, in the same sequence and rhythm, as outlined in Hoyt’s and Wenzlick’s research in the 1930s. (Both author’s publications are available for member viewing in the Member’s Publication’s section of the website.) Our forecast for the expected peak in land values in 2026, therefore, remains consistent. However, global events have created a cataclysm that is promising an end to this cycle that was hard to conceive, prior to the COVID mid-cycle panic. When I mentioned last week that I would be conducting another interview with David Murrin, to discuss the situation in detail, members flooded me with questions. I managed to get through quite a few of them. Most questions from members were focused on how involvement in war would impact Australia. Are we adequately defended? Would young Australians face conscription into the army? There were also the usual concerns regarding safe havens for investment as we approach the peak and beyond. David has forecast war with China to commence as early as this year – 2024. That’s a terrifying concept. Whilst I do not totally align with all of David’s timings - especially in respect to the peak of the Commodity cycle (noting, however, that the land cycle exhibits three peaks at slightly different times - in stocks, land, and commodity markets.) His analysis is not rash. David has conducted decades of research that considers both the timing of the land cycle (in this instance, the Kondratieff Wave, or K-Wave – i.e., 3 land cycles. 54-56 years.) and also the longer 112-year Hegemonic War Cycle. As Kondratiev noted, in the upward swing of the wave years of prosperity are more numerous than during the downswing – the stage of his cycle that some refer to as Winter. “Our investigation demonstrates that during the rise of the long waves years of prosperity are more numerous whereas years of depression predominate during the downswing..” (Kondratiev -The Long Waves in Economic Life) This is where we’re heading. The winter years of the K-wave. You need to be prepared. In our interview we delve into the situation in detail. It was conducted late at night Melbourne time, early afternoon UK time. That always makes these discussions, personally, rather challenging – and doesn’t lead to a very restful night’s sleep afterwards! However, I hope you’ll gain from the discussion as much as I did. See more of David at Davidmurrin.co.uk and https://www.youtube.com/@david.murrin or more on youtube https://www.youtube.com/@LandCycleInvestor

FSC Development Director Ron William recently had the pleasure of interviewing David Murrin, a polymath known for his blog in Murrinations. His career has focussed on recurring patterns of history and using them to try and predict the future for markets and society in turbulent times. In his 2009 book Breaking The Code of History, he predicted that the next great viral epidemic would originate in China and that it is almost “impossible for people to compute the magnitude of the disaster we are about to experience.” David’s advisory and speaking work today is based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment, and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.

Tom welcomes David Murrin to the show. David discusses his five model of empire and how he was able to predict that Russia would invade Ukraine. Western governments have pushed all the adaptive people. The United States is now in the fifth stage of decline. We live in a watershed time of transition of power and we're in a Kondratieff winter. Nation-states fight over resources and these are the main drivers of past wars. David discusses the cycles that drove the cold war and the inflation during the 70s. Excessive money printing and a reduction in productivity are creating this decline. Structures are weakening in the West and our leadership is lacking. A series of disastrous Presidents have only exacerbated the problems. This decade is going to see a huge shift in commodity markets. Putin is not a mad man. Anyone that believes this is failing to understand him. There is nothing illogical about the man. Putin doesn't play poker he follows thru on his statements. Russia's weapon systems are designed to completely thwart the West's nuclear defenses. Putin has very carefully calculated his war to completely collapse Ukraine's will to fight. His use of nuclear leverage completely threatens other European nations. Once Ukraine falls it's highly likely that Taiwan and South Korea will suffer the same fate. Should Putin fail we could see a pro-western government in Russia. Should that happen China would lose its source of resources. China's nuclear deterrent is limited but when allied to Russia it's much stronger. The longer we wait the stronger the bonds will become between China and Russia. Sanctions aren't going to hurt Russia as the West will experience a big energy shock. He believes in the importance of reducing CO2, adopting green energy, and most importantly making use of nuclear and thorium power solutions. We're now in the bubble of all bubbles and entering decline. Bubbles have created the illusion of successful markets and those in charge can't see the magnitude of what is coming. Precious metals will be the way to hedge against the coming market risks. This combined with mining stocks has enormous potential to outperform this inflationary cycle. Lastly, he discusses potential price targets for precious metals and why they will likely be astounding. There just isn't enough metal to go around and just imagine what happens when inflation is two or three times higher than today. Time Stamp References: 0:00 - Introduction 1:04 - Predicting Invasion 16:30 - NATO and Conflict? 23:57 - Europe and Energy 25:48 - China & Russia 29:04 - Russia & Commodities 31:16 - Global Energy Shocks 35:35 - Doomsday Bubble 38:24 - Dollar Outcome 40:44 - West Outlook 45:33 - Hedging The Risks 49:15 - Sector Rotation? 50:35 - Crypto Market Thoughts 52:05 - Metal Price Targets 53:35 - Gold Standard & Putin 58:49 - China Gold Reserves 59:38 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode - Putin's strategy for breaking NATO the Wests problems of dealing with nuclear blackmail. - Why the West is in decline and his thoughts on the dollar. - Importance of nuclear and reducing carbon. - Hedging the coming inflationary risks with precious metals and mining equities. Guest Links Twitter: / globalforecastr Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/ Podcast: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/media/p... David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today's turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.

Tom Bodrovics is once again joined by global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss global conflicts and the cycles that lead to them. Murrin believes that China is currently challenging the U.S. in a hegemonic battle, influenced by the Kondratiev cycles that have been playing out for centuries. He sees war as a natural selection process that arises when an empire reaches its peak, and describes it as entropic. Murrin believes that war is inevitable and that China is using hostile actions such as the release of COVID-19 and IP extraction to challenge the U.S. The ongoing Ukrainian-Russian conflict is described as a "bloody stalemate" due to the U.S.'s lack of support for Ukraine. Murrin argues that until America provides Ukraine with the necessary resources and confronts Putin with strength, he will continue to gain ground. He also discussed the role of leadership in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, the complexity of the Middle East conflict, and the need for Western countries to create coherence and order in order to present a strong front against external challenges. Palisade Radio Links: ► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca ► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024 ► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c Murrin also discussed the Kondratiev cycles, to explain the potential for a third world war. He predicts an escalating conflict in the Middle East, with Iran potentially using its nuclear power for regional dominance. He warns of hypersonic cruise weapons and the need for the U.S. to maintain a military capability on par with its challengers. Murrin also suggests that the West must learn from the mistakes of the past, particularly in the Middle East, and avoid the hubris of thinking that one nation is exceptional. He emphasizes the importance of lateral thinking and adaptability in facing hegemonic challenges, and urges Western societies to demand more from their leaders and prioritize strategic thinking. Murrin stresses the importance of understanding the cycles of history and learning from past mistakes, as well as the need for strong leadership and lateral thinking in navigating through these conflicts. Time Stamp References: 0:00 - Introduction 0:47 - Conflicts & Cyclicality 10:40 - Russia & West's Approach 16:23 - Outcomes & Inevitability 21:33 - U.S. Power & Hubris 22:48 - Hamas/Israel Conflict 34:20 - Chess Moves & WW III 39:47 - Constriction & Commodities 45:22 - Coming Commodity Cycle 51:53 - Treasury Exits & China 54:28 - Chinese Demographics 58:10 - Conscription 1:03:26 - Concluding Thoughts 1:07:30 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode - The cyclical nature of global conflicts and the current hegemonic challenge between China and the U.S. - The importance of adaptability and lateral thinking is emphasized in facing these challenges and avoiding past mistakes. - Strong leadership and strategic thinking are necessary for Western countries to confront external threats and maintain stability. Guest Links Twitter: / globalforecastr Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/ Lateral Vs Linear Thought: • David Murrin: The Fed Needs to Own Up... David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior. In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014. Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions. #DavidMurrin #HegemonicChallenge #Autocracy #KondratievCycles #Entropic #UkrainianRussianConflict #Stalemate #WeaponSystems #Putin #MiddleEast #ThirdWorldWar

David Murrin has been described as a polymath. His 30-year career has been focused on finding deep-seated patterns in history and using them to understand and accurately predict the future in both todays’ turbulent geopolitical dynamics and financial markets. To achieve this, he has developed a unique model for human systems and their cyclical behaviour that is applicable to empires, nations, military organisations and companies. This five-staged roadmap enhances understanding and decision making and has a remarkable track record of predicting events over the past two decades. For more - davidmurrin.co.uk #economists #work #davidmurrin #financialadvice #shorts #news #information #geopolitics

David Murrin has been described as a polymath. His 30-year career has been focused on finding deep-seated patterns in history and using them to understand and accurately predict the future in both todays’ turbulent geopolitical dynamics and financial markets. To achieve this, he has developed a unique model for human systems and their cyclical behaviour that is applicable to empires, nations, military organisations and companies. This five-staged roadmap enhances understanding and decision making and has a remarkable track record of predicting events over the past two decades. For more - davidmurrin.co.uk #economists #work #davidmurrin #financialadvice #shorts #news #information #geopolitics

David Murrin is an acclaimed economic and geopolitical forecaster, whose uncannily successful predictions about the future have been informed by a unique career - from the jungle of Papua New Guinea to the trading floors of Wall Street. Using a combination of economic cycles, military history, and human behaviour, David has created a model for the rise and fall of empires, which he describes in detail in his fascinating book, "Breaking the code of history". In this deep-dive interview with Boaz Shoshan, David elaborates on what the future holds for the UK and the world. Amid American decline, Chinese ascendancy, and a British resurgence, investors will face crisis and opportunity in equal measure. To learn more about David's work, or to get a copy of his excellent book for yourself, check out https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/