David Collum - Rudy Havenstein - Tom Luongo: Twas The Financial Nightmare Before Christmas
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, host Tom Bodrovics welcomes David Collum, Tom Luongo, and Rudy Havenstein to discuss various topics, including the upcoming US election and the state of the economy. The panel discusses the possibilities surrounding Donald Trump likely securing the Republican Party's nomination and the opinions of Wall Street on Nikki Haley and her support from Jamie Dimon. They express fears that the 2024 election could be a disaster, with tensions within the Democratic party and the potential for an outsider like Bobby Kennedy or Michelle Obama to enter the race. The conversation also touches on the parallel interests of liberal and conservative politicians when it comes to war and money.
The discussion then moves to concerns about the concentration of power in the US executive branch, the potential for extreme actions by Trump post-election, and the hypocrisy of the Democrats in their response to election challenges compared to their outrage over Russian interference claims in 2016. The panel expresses hope that Trump, if re-elected, will follow the rules. They also predict that if the election were free and fair, Trump would win convincingly, potentially leading to a Republican majority in the Senate and House.
The conversation then shifts to the Federal Reserve and its policies. Speculations arise about rate cuts and the pivot of the Fed towards a more dovish stance. Concerns are raised about the impact of rate cuts on the economy and the need for changes in government spending and reducing deficits. The panel discusses the increasing government spending and the potential consequences, such as inflation as a form of stealth default. They suggest that the markets should be asked for their opinion on the best course of action.
They highlight the need for change and action to address the economic challenges facing the US. They discuss the importance of local communities and supporting local banks and businesses as a way to regain power from Washington, DC. The conversation also touches on the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and its impact on the economy.
In conclusion, the discussion revolves around topics such as the upcoming US election, the role of Wall Street, concerns about power concentration, the Federal Reserve's policies, government spending, and the need for change and action to address economic challenges. The panelists express their hopes and concerns for the future of the US, highlighting the importance of grassroots movements and local support.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introductions
0:50 - 2024 Election Disaster?
17:29 - Trump, Fed & Pivoting
28:50 - Something Blew Up?
37:09 - Reverse REPO Concerns
40:12 - Trust & Defaults
48:15 - Vandals & Explosions
53:42 - Unrest & Non-Compliance
1:00:28- Covid & Downstream Effects
1:05:37 - Fixing Student Debt
1:10:57 - Civil Liberties
1:15:39 - Trump & Consequence
1:23:42 - Market Outlook
1:24:30 - Commies, Debt, & Capital
1:29:13 - The Great Taking
1:35:30 - U.S. Advantages
1:40:46 - Depressing Books
1:46:50 - Generational Debate
1:54:54 - Various Pills
1:56:29 - University & Kids Today
2:07:04 - Lack of Critical Thinking
2:09:20 - Upbringings & Inflation
2:18:07 - Trans-Generation-alism
2:23:26 - Gold Interest Today
2:27:14 - 2023 Review & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Expectations and possible outcomes for the 2024 elections.
- The Fed and why Powell may not pivot for several months.
- The impacts of debt and why the entire global system needs delveraging.
David Collum Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/davidbcollum
Website: https://collum.chem.cornell.edu/
David B. Collum is an American Chemist and professor at Cornell University. He currently teaches a graduate Chemistry and Chemical biology course.
He also runs the Collum group, which focuses on how aggregation and solvation dictate the reactivity and selectivity of organolithium compounds commonly used by synthetic chemists in academia and the pharmaceutical industry.
Ph.D., Columbia University, MA Columbia University, BS Cornell University.
Rudy Havenstein Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/rudyhavenstein
Substack: https://rudy.substack.com
Introducing Rudolf "Rudy" Havenstein, a Senior Market Commentator and former Reichsbank President. As Bank President during the tumultuous Weimar Hyperinflation, Rudy was instrumental in furthuring the disastrous effects of unchecked monetary policies. Today, at the ripe old age of 166 Rudy continues his passion for monetary theory and disdain for kleptocracy. His experiences has fueled his desire to educate people about the dangers of fiat money. Inspired by the similarities between his past and the issues of today, he created a Twitter account and Substack, where he documents the absurdities of the financial world and shares his insightful commentary on the state of the economy. With a cheeky serious sense of humor, Rudy often pokes fun at the prevailing narratives and calls out the misinformation disseminated by mainstream media.
Tom Luongo Links:
Website: https://tomluongo.me
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Luongo is an ex-Research Chemist and Anarcho-Libertarian, whose work can be seen on sites like Zerohedge and Newsmax Media. He has been married for 30 years and has a teenage daughter. Professionally, he has seen an industry be created and destroyed by government fiat. He ran for Florida House and later spent 5+ years working on an electroless Nickel-Boron coating. Additionally, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats 'N Guns Newsletter. He does not believe in the man-made global warming narrative, and his political views lean toward libertarianism. In his free time, he builds, raises goats, plays hockey, drums, and plays board games. Lastly, he owns a few guns.
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Greg Weldon: The Economic Sweet Spot For Gold is on the Doorstep
Tom welcomes back Greg Weldon, a forty+ year financial market veteran, commodity trading advisor, and the publisher of WeldonLIVE.
Greg restarted The Gold Guru due to a flatlining market with low open interest, believing that the market is ready to take off. He provides conservative and aggressive portfolios for investors and has developed algorithms that rank mining shares. He aims to provide economic data and information to help people navigate the changing market landscape.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
He discusses topics such as the likelihood of the Fed increasing interest rates and inflation target in economic downturns, the impact of COVID on the economy, the rise in commodity prices, the macroeconomic implications of inflation, the difference in central bank policies between the US and other countries, and the potential risks associated with a strong dollar.
Greg suggests that investors can take advantage of the current downturn by looking for opportunities in the homebuilding market and index ETFs. He believes that gold could be a long-term buy and hold opportunity driven by inflation and central bank policies. He recommends investing in a small group or a broad-based portfolio of gold stocks.
Greg emphasizes the use of charts to identify patterns and trends for investment decisions. He encourages becoming proactive and agile in investing to avoid falling behind. He also mentions the potential for junior mining shares to increase in value and the underutilization of the commodities market, particularly in food.
Lastly, He encourages readers to do their homework, read extensively, and engage in discussions about investing.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:00 - Greg's Background
6:38 - Trend Changes & Gold
9:37 - Fed Policy & 2019/2020
12:28 - Panama Canal & Inflation
15:40 - Inflation & Fed Response
18:06 - Central Banks & Europe
22:09 - Fed Metrics & Stability
24:20 - Lag Impacts & Policy
26:45 - Gold's Recent Moves
30:44 - Volatility & Gold Markets 31:30 - EDIT?
32:28 - Gold Dollar Adjusted
34:42 - GDX & SIL ETF Levels
37:45 - Ranking the Miners
40:19 - Commodities & ETF Trades
41:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- US dollar is losing purchasing power and is providing economic data and information to help people.
- The commodities market, especially food, is under appreciated, ETFs are a good way to gain exposure..
Guest Links:
Money_Podcast
Website: http://www.weldononline.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/WeldonLIVE
Money Podcast: https://twitter.com/money_podcast
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldon
E-Mail: sales@weldononline.com
Greg Weldon is a veteran in the global financial markets industry with over 40 years of experience. He started his career as a floor trader on the COMEX and later worked as a broker for Lehman Brothers and Prudential Securities. He then became a proprietary money manager for hedge funds Moore Capital Management and Commodities Corporation. In 1998, he founded Weldon Financial and has been producing independent research ever since. His clients include top hedge funds, banks, government agencies, and individual investors.
WeldonLIVE, his flagship service, provides a comprehensive market research report, including live commentary. The service covers global economic reports, supply-demand fundamentals, monetary trends, and their impact on stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets. Weldon combines a top-down macro approach with technical analysis to offer a broad view of market trends. He provides market recommendations in sectors such as stock indexes, metals, currencies, fixed-income, energy, and commodities.
@GregoryWeldon #Gold #Fed #Markets #Commodities #WeldonLive #GoldTradingBootcamp #GoldGuru #PreciousMetals #Inflation #ElNino #Debt #Commodities #StrongDollar #WeatherEvent #COVIDPandemic #Economy #Housing #Construction #Homes #ETFs #JuniorMiningShares #PGMs
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Prof. Steve Hanke: Dollarization - A Necessary Move for Argentina?
Tom welcomes back Steve Hanke Professor of Applied Economics - Johns Hopkins University.
In this discussion, Professor Steve Hanke emphasizes the potential benefits of dollarization for Argentina's economy. He references the country's history of economic instability, multiple currency and banking crises, and high inflation rates. Hanke suggests that dollarization, similar to the strategies implemented in Ecuador and El Salvador, could lead to a significant reduction in inflation and increase access to long-term credit. He also highlights the success of dollarization in countries like Panama and Hong Kong.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
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Hanke argues that dollarization would align Argentina more closely with the United States, making its currency more secure and convertible. He points out that the stability brought by dollarization would create greater opportunities for the demand of Argentinian goods, particularly in the agricultural sector. He also states that dollarization simplifies borrowing and stabilizes foreign exchange, which benefits the circulation of the US dollar.
He dismisses the idea of using gold or Bitcoin as unnecessary especially with a population already highly reliant on U.S. Dollar Notes.
Hanke also addresses the political challenges of dollarization, mentioning that the concept may face opposition from the political class who would lose the ability to borrow money from a central bank. Additionally, he highlights the disproportionate impact of the inflation tax on lower-income individuals, underscoring the importance of maintaining a strong budget.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:55 - Argentine Monetary History
6:52 - How To Dollarize
12:37 - Argentina Reserves
14:00 - Gold Backed Peso?
16:07 - Gold Reserves
17:05 - El Salvador & Bitcoin
18:11 - Coinage Provisions?
19:02 - Stability Benefits
24:00 - Exports & Invoicing
25:35 - US Dollar Demand
27:00 - Bond Issuances?
28:10 - BRICS Question?
28:42 - Responsible Politics?
29:12 - Citizenry & Budgets
30:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Argentina attempted to dollarize the economy numerous times but failed due to lack of votes and unsustainable monetary policies.
- Steve Hankey suggested dollarization as a viable solution which would likely cause inflation to plummet and long-term credit to become accessible.
- A dollarized system would create a 'confidence shock' and benefit those on lower incomes by reducing the impact of the inflation tax.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/steve_hanke
Website: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com
Website: https://www.cato.org/people/hanke.html
Website: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/about/co-directors/
Email: hanke@jhu.edu
Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal’s Opinion pages. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel.
In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisors in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997- 2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998.
He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro.
Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia.
#AustrianEconomics #Argentina #Menem #SteveHanke #Inflation #Hyperinflation #CentralBanking #Dollarize #TequilaCrisis #LatinAmerica #Ecuador #Peso #Dollar #CurrencyBoard #USDollar #GoldBackedCurrency #Bitcoin #BRICS
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Tavi Costa: Gold is About to Explode Higher Through a Triple Top
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to discuss the potential for a bull market in precious metals, particularly gold and silver. They believe that the current undervaluation of the metals and mining industry, coupled with various macroeconomic trends, presents an attractive investment opportunity. Tavi highlights the potential for increased M&A activity in the gold mining sector and the importance of finding major discoveries in the juniors. They also discuss the potential impact of ESG policies and green agendas on gold production.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Tavi Costa suggests that silver is worth paying attention to, citing factors such as increased imports from India and declining production from Peru and Mexico. He sees silver as a monetary and inflationary hedge.
They discuss the macroeconomic indicators pointing towards a potential recession, as well as potential opportunities in the commodity space.
Tavi Costa offers insights into the Argentine and Brazilian economies and suggests potential solutions to currency and investment issues in Brazil.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introductions
0:33 - Bullish Technicals
2:45 - Confirmation Levels
6:00 - Majors & Mine Reserves
9:23 - Miners Diversifying?
11:32 - Mining Seasonality
13:26 - Capital Rotation
16:24 - Setup For Silver Miners
18:00 - India Silver Imports
19:38 - Fundamentals Vs. Technicals
23:00 - Commodities to Equity Ratio
28:23 - Commodities & Inflation
33:20 - U.S. Bond Issuances
38:10 - Inverted Yield Curve
41:30 - Recession & Soft Landings
43:45 - Politics in Argentina
49:08 - Inflationary Eras
51:38 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Tavi discusses the opportunity for investors in the metals and mining industry.
- Macroeconomic developments and market changes indicate a potential recession in the near future, and further inflation appears to remain an issue.
- The cost of capital will be an important question if inflation remains high, and that in five to ten years, the changes in the market will be more obvious.
Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
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Rudy Havenstein: Lessons From The Reichbank's Raging Beast - The Need For Monetary Restraint
Rudy Havenstein is a senior market commentator and former Reichsbank President who currently runs a Twitter parody account where he documents what's going on in the world of finance and educates people on related topics. He is inspired by the similarity between the issues of his time and the issues of today, such as inflation, and hopes to warn people about the dangers of fiat money.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Havenstein believes that this generation is like a group of grandparents taking the whole family out to dinner and skipping out on the bill. He quotes Thomas Paine, who said, "If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my children may have peace," to emphasize the need to address and resolve issues now for the sake of future generations.
Havenstein discusses the difficulty of having civil discussions about polarizing topics, as people tend to become overly emotional and divided over even small issues. He calls for logical and calm discussions and warns against the influence of cable news and clickbait in pushing people to extreme viewpoints.
He criticizes the current administration for picking the wrong people for positions, regardless of party affiliation, and emphasizes the importance of being aware of tribal emotions and discussing issues in a meaningful way.
He discusses how quantitative easing (QE) and low interest rates benefit asset owners and the wealthy while leaving the average person vulnerable to price volatility. He expresses concern about the decline of the middle class into poverty and the reckless spending of the government.
Havenstein believes that the Federal Reserve has an abysmal track record as a big bank regulator and blames Congress for not thinking about the long-term consequences of their actions. He also expresses concern about the potential for deflation and the unchecked money printing power of the Federal Reserve.
He touches on the issue of wealth inequality and how quantitative easing has exacerbated this problem. He mentions various experts who have commented on this topic and believes that the government's priority has been to bail out the stock market and benefit the rich.
Havenstein concludes by discussing gold as a potential hedge against instability and the trend of Indians, Russians, and Chinese buying gold to protect against local currency instability. He also discusses his own experiences with investing and offers advice on taking risks and not investing essential funds.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Internet discourse has become very divisive, and it's important to permit disagreement while remaining civil.
- The Federal Reserve should be a target of criticism, but the public is often kept from getting an accurate picture of their activity.
- The American people must acknowledge the problems of the Federal Reserve and hold them accountable in order to reclaim their power and financial freedoms.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:31 - Rudy's Staid Pedigree
4:14 - History & Polarization
7:45 - Nuance & Verbal Skirmishes
8:25 - Online Discourse & Wars
12:34 - Janet Yellen's Bubble
16:31 - Inflation & Real Costs
19:46 - Manipulating the Verbage
21:20 - Absurd Financial Angles
25:30 - Central Bank 'Purpose'
30:50 - Deflation & The Fed
34:32 - Leverage & Bond Auctions
36:39 - No Fiscal Restraints
38:41 - Gold as Insurance
40:28 - Gold & Argentina
41:50 - Gold Equities & Volatility
45:19 - Picking Tops/Bottoms
47:38 - Infinite Money & Defaults
49:22 - CPI Vs. Cost of Living
53:00 - Elections & Vapid Politicans
57:24 - WEF & Global Malignancy
1:00:43 - Other Secret Clubs
1:01:13 - Reasons for Hope
1:06:05 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/rudyhavenstein
Substack: https://rudy.substack.com
Introducing Rudolf "Rudy" Havenstein, a Senior Market Commentator and former Reichsbank President. As Bank President during the tumultuous Weimar Hyperinflation, Rudy was instrumental in furthering the disastrous effects of unchecked monetary policies. Today, at the ripe old age of 166 Rudy continues his passion for monetary theory and disdain for kleptocracy. His experiences has fueled his desire to educate people about the dangers of fiat money. Inspired by the similarities between his past and the issues of today, he created a Twitter account and Substack, where he documents the absurdities of the financial world and shares his insightful commentary on the state of the economy. With a cheeky serious sense of humor, Rudy often pokes fun at the prevailing narratives and calls out the misinformation disseminated by mainstream media.
#RudyHavenstein #CentralBanking #Politics #Hyperinflation #FiatMoney #Emotions #Polarization #MiddleClass #BailOuts #Equities #TooBigToFail #WealthInequality #Gold #Investing #Risks #Sentiment #GoldEquities
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Jim Welsh: Debts and Deficts Surge As Fed & Fiscal Policies Fail
Tom welcomes back, Jim Welsh, founder and publisher of Macro Tides. Jim shares his perspectives and charts on the current state of the market. He discusses potential coming economic challenges and is concerned about the markets focus solely on CPI metrics.
Note: For those interested in Jim's offerings he provides a special offer for his subscription in the guest links section below.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
One of the major concerns discussed was a significant increase in inflation recently. This prompted the Federal Reserve to respond by increasing the funds rate. However, Welsh cautioned that people should not disregard Fed policy of the 1970s, as they could influence future actions by the Fed.
Welsh believes that the cause of the recent inflation surge is related to consumers entering the post-pandemic period with substantial savings, leading to rising wages over the past few years, which are now manifesting in higher consumer prices. Banks have tightened lending standards, making borrowing costlier for small businesses, while credit lines decline, indicating signs of strain. Although the GDP grew significantly in the third quarter, there are cautionary indications not dis-similar to those preceding the 2008 crisis.
Jim stresses the importance of analyzing multiple factors to evaluate economic activity accurately. He notes that corporate bankruptcies have reached record highs, hinting at hidden issues despite seemingly positive growth. Moreover, it takes time for macro-level changes to impact behavior, leading to questions about the true significance of GDP as an indicator of real economic growth.
Welsh's outlook is that the economy will likely slow down over the next six to nine months. The Federal Reserve aims to handle the situation cautiously, learning from the mistakes of the 1970s. He highlights the potential for financial markets to misjudge or discount the future, creating investment opportunities.
Lastly, Jim discusses why the current U.S. political system is not up to the task and will remain polarized for some time.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
- Economy may enter a new 'lost decade' as economic growth wanes and market risk a further downturn.
- The Fed's approach may resemble that of the 1970s.
- Increasing political polarization may lead to economic downturn, making it difficult to pass fiscal and monetary policy that is beneficial.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:51 - CPI Numbers & Markets
3:43 - Lag Times & Fed Policy
9:05 - Rates & Mechanisms
13:15 - Growth Vs. Prices
14:48 - Past Monetary Policy
19:53 - Fed Targets & Rate Cut
24:43 - Secular Bull & Bear Mkts
29:26 - Bonds/Yield Curve Charts
32:10 - Economic Indicator Chart
33:12 - Faster Hikes & Lending
35:35 - TLT ETF Trend Chart
38:32 - 2024 Dollar Decline
42:12 - Gold A New Bull Market
45:13 - S&P & US Bond Chart
47:23 - Tech Stock Outlook
49:56 - Secular Bear Market
51:05 - Stock Mkt. Valuations
53:56 - Fiscal Spending Power
56:40 - Fed's Balance Sheet
57:57 - Political Polarization
1:01:57 - Wrap Up
Jim's Links and Special Offer
Website: https://macrotides.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JimWelshMacro
E-Mail - Offer: jimwelshmacro@gmail.com
Jim says, "I want to offer your viewers a 50% discount off their first month", so those interested can check his work out. This discount applies to monthly subscriptions to the "Weekly Technical Review". This is normally $35.00 so it would be $17.50. The promotion code is: GOLD
Jim Welsh is a student of the financial markets and a seasoned veteran of investing with forty years of portfolio management experience, including security research & analysis, model building, portfolio construction, asset allocation, and is a specialist in technical analysis and macroeconomics. Did we mention he is also an all-around good guy?
As a nationally recognized financial expert, Jim has been quoted in Barrons, the San Diego Union-Tribune, Consensus, the Big Picture, Econintersect, and Market Views. Mr. Welsh has been interviewed on Fox Business News and CNBC, CBS radio and given more than 3,000 interviews on TV, radio, and internet business shows since 1988.
An example of Welsh's impressive market calls includes the major sell-off in world markets in 2007. That year, Jim correctly anticipated the housing & credit crisis and predicted the bear market in stocks in 2008. In February 2009, just before the market bottomed, and economic statistics improved, Welsh identified the signs of a turnaround in the stock market and economy.
#JimWelsh #MacroTides #Fed #YieldCurve #LagTimes #CPI #Rates #Credit #Loans #Risk #Economy #Recession #GDP #Growth #Prices #Inflation #Dollar #Euro #Europe #YieldCurve #Gold #Trends #BearMarket #FiscalSpending #Politics #GDP
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Robert R. Prechter: Peak of All Peaks - A Market Top Of The Ages & Why The Bear is Here to Stay
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show Robert R. Prechter, the founder of Elliott Wave International. Robert believes that social mood shapes events, not the other way around. He argues that human beings go through cycles of positive and negative moods that have an impact on the stock market and other areas of society. He has observed that conflicts tend to break out when social mood is declining after reaching a peak. This correlation has been seen in the recent events in the Middle East. Bob explains how the human brain is conditioned to think linearly, which makes it difficult to understand the fractal nature of the stock market.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
He gives examples of how regular explanations for market changes often fail, while predictions using the Elliott wave model have been more successful. He also discusses how the recent mania for tech stocks and cryptocurrencies is a reflection of the positive social mood that has been prevalent since the end of the COVID-19 lockdowns. However, he believes that this is coming to an end, and the world is entering a negative mood phase.
Bob also talks about the potential for a deflationary crash and how investors can protect themselves by investing in safe assets like gold, silver, and floating rate notes. He recommends having an offshore bank account and a second passport as a backup. He also offers a special landing page for listeners of Palisades Gold, which provides free resources and discounted options for his book "Conquer the Crash" and various subscription services.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Social mood drives market trends, not news events.
- Debt and speculation have caused a bubble in real estate and other investments.
- Take precautionary measures such as investing in gold and securing an offshore account to protect against potential market crashes.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:30 - Socionomics & Moods
4:45 - Movement & Fractal Thinking
6:00 - Commodities & Covid
9:00 - Current Outlook & Optimism
15:00 - Lockdown Effects
18:30 - Supercycles & Trends
20:00 - Bitcoin & Currencies
24:30 - CBDC Concerns
27:00 - Bond Rate Bomb
29:20 - Feds Control Illusion
32:40 - Politics & Sentiment
34:30 - Real Estate Debt
38:35 - Dollar Outlook & Gold
41:00 - Deflationary Impulse
43:45 - Zero-Day Derivatives
45:50 - Banks & Bail-Ins?
48:45 - Safety & Gold/Silver
50:45 - Metal Storage & Passports
52:30 - Africa & Passports
54:30 - Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.elliottwave.com/PGR
Twitter: https://twitter.com/elliottwaveintl
Robert R. Prechter has authored 20 books on finance, including a New York Times bestseller. Since founding Elliott Wave International in 1979, Bob has focused on analyzing financial markets from a technical perspective. Prechter writes the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist, one of the longest-running financial publications in existence today. Prechter has developed a theory of social causality called socionomics, whose main hypothesis is that waves of social mood prompt social actions, including trends in fashion, entertainment and the overall pricing of stocks. Prechter has co-authored several academic papers, including one demonstrating that the stock market can predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections when an incumbent is running. Bob has been a lifelong advocate of real money as opposed to fiat money.
#RobertPrechter #Socionomics #ElliottWave #Finance #Conflict #Cycles #Technicals #Fundamentals #MiddleEast #Deflation #VIX #Trends #SocialMood #ElliottWave #Bitcoin #Debt #RealEstate #USDollar #Gold #Silver #BailIns #Bitcoin #Crypto #CBDC #NFTs #Gold
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Out-Of-Africa Special with Francis Hunt - Record Private Debt is Crushing the Productive Economy
In this special edition of Palisades Tom details his recent visit to Africa where he met up with Francis Hunt of "The Market Sniper" for a motorbike adventure across three countries.
Francis, who was born in South Africa and has lived in the UK for 20 years, shares his insights on the history of diamond and gold industries in the region.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
They also discuss the role of Cecil John Rhodes, a well-renowned national hero of South Africa who was funded by powerful financiers and used this power to establish a monopoly on the diamond and commodities industry in the region. They also touch upon the historical context of how the British empire had a continual need due to their nursery banking lending system and the coming of an American era.
The interviewee's experience in Zimbabwe highlights a struggling infrastructure and the effects of devaluation on the population. They discuss the rapid devaluation of the Zimbabwean currency
The lack of maintenance and investment is derelicting the organization and infrastructure in many African nations. The two then explore the economy of Zimbabwe where others said infrastructure had been broken and stolen. The country's inflation created a notorious bank note of $100 trillion symbolizing its depreciated currency and the challenges faced by the people due to this.
They discuss the controversal interplay between gold, long-term US treasury rates, and national debts. Francis discusses and the potential for a demand-destroying event in the future.
They also discuss the importance of taking a break from the markets and appreciating the beauty of nature.
Although the trip may not have been comfortable, they discuss the importance of being prepared and self-reliant in any crisis.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
2:36 - Francis's Background
4:30 - Cecil Rhodes Impact
12:10 - Derivative Beginnings
15:50 - African Contrasts
19:14 - Infrastructure Failings
26:05 - Levies & Fiat Trillions
33:45 - Dollar & Bond Yields
42:13 - Private Debt Hoarders
50:50 - Yields & Inflation
56:45 - Japan & Rate Peg
59:50 - Bitcoin & Malfeasance
1:05:30 - Commodities & Ratios
1:08:12 - Africa Trip Details
Talking Points From This Episode
- Tom and Francis traveled 1,200 miles through South Africa, Botswana, and Zimbabwe to record an special edition of Palisades Gold Radio.
- They discussed Cecil John Rhodes and his role in bringing Southern Africa under the City of London cartels.
- They highlighted the current low interest rate environment and how it is driving people up the risk curve to find yield.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
#FrancisHunt #CecilRhodes #Africa #DiamondMines #Zimbabwae #Fiat #Dollar #Gold #Yields #Bonds #Taxes #FinancialCrisis #Japan #Rates #BTC #Commodities #Oil #Adventure #Safari
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David Hay: The Fed is Going to Overwhelm the Bond Market with Supply
Tom welcomes back David Hay author, Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal. David discusses various economic indicators that may signal the beginning of a recession. Tightening of credit conditions, with credit spreads expanding rapidly, and how the recent events in the Middle East have affected the safety trade for US Treasury bonds. David expressed concern about the current federal fiscal funding situation and its potential consequences. He also mentioned the conflicting views in the market between short-term investors and long-term investors, which is creating tension in the bond market.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
They discussed the Federal Reserve's policies and how they have continued to increase interest rates despite the slowing economy, which is starting to impact the real economy with higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions. David also shared his observations about the job market and the economy, noting the strength of nominal GDP but attributing it to the large deficit spending.
They also talked about the current trends in the nuclear energy industry and how China and Russia are leading the way with new technologies, while the US is lagging behind. Environmental policies and the importance of separating fact from fiction in the green energy transition. Additionally, they touched on the current state of the oil industry and how it has managed to maintain record levels of production despite lower drilling activity. Lastly, David highlighted the importance of having dry powder, or cash, to take advantage of opportunities during market crashes.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - Credit Contraction
3:36 - Bonds As Safe Havens?
5:41 - Treasury Demand
10:28 - Investor Sentiment
12:34 - Policy Lag & Labor
15:30 - GDP Strength/Deficits
18:25 - Fed & More Q.E.
21:20 - Dollar Strength & Gold
27:16 - Tech Bubbles & A.I.
30:00 - Energy & Nuclear Outlook
36:56 - SMR & Public Opinion
40:20 - Renewables & Realism
45:29 - Oil Industry & Drilling
50:40 - Natural Gas
52:49 - Bonds Now & 1987
55:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
- Evidence of a slowing economy with nominal GDP growth slipping, inflation cooling, and earnings, GDI and tax revenue falling.
- Increased borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions having an affect on housing and retail markets.
- Unexpectedly high oil production in the U.S. despite decreased drilling activity, which could lead to higher prices in a recession.
Guest Links:
Website: https://http://evergreengavekal.com/
Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0
David Hay is a longtime investment advisor and financial author from Bellevue, Washington. He and his wife, Mindy, now split their time between the Northwest, Southern California, and a few places in between (their two dogs love long road trips). They have six grandchildren, three of who live on the West Coast and three on the East Coast. Dave is desperately hoping for a better world for his grandchildren to grow up in than the one we have right now. In that regard, Dave is an ardent supporter of No Labels, a bipartisan political movement that currently includes roughly 70 members of Congress. He is the recently appointed Co-Chairman of No Labels’ Washington State organization. You can find his financial writings on his substack linked above on a weekly basis.
#DavidHay #Fed #Bonds #Labor #Jobs #CreditConditions #Recession #Treasuries #Deficits #NominalGDP #Inflation #Earnings #QT #QE #Nuclear #Uranium #SMRs #MoltenSaltReactors #Fertilizers #Oil
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Nevada King Gold - “Hole 44 - The Hole of a Lifetime” (TSX-V: NKG; OTCQX:NKGFF)
On October 2nd, 2023, Nevada King Gold intersected bonanza grade gold at the Atlanta Gold Mine with 37 g/t gold over 29 meters within an overall intercept of 11.64 g/t Gold over 108.3 meters. In Part 1 of “Hole 44 - The Hole of a Lifetime,” Cal Herron, Exploration Manager, and Collin Kettell, Founder & CEO, discuss how the reinterpretation of the geological model at Atlanta led the company down the path to this discovery.
The pair discuss the potential for finding more “Jewelry boxes” at Atlanta, not just in the immediate area of the pit, but throughout the Atlanta district. One such example is at the South Quartzite Ridge Target, where exploration is underway in search of a monster deposit.
Learn more at: https://nevadaking.ca/
Follow us on twitter at: https://twitter.com/NevadaKingGold
#Gold #Exploration #Nevada #NevadaKing #Mining #Silver
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Alfredo Pinel: The Dollar Wrecking Ball is Having it's Way with Gold
Tom welcomes Alfredo Pinel, the head of research at Game of Trades to discuss current macro trends. Pinel explains taylors good data with actionable strategies for their subscribers.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
One trend in the markets that has been grabbing attention is the risk rotation and the Fed pivot. This has caused an increase in S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratios, higher than those seen in the past few decades. Alfredo mentioned that Game of Trades can assist investors by reducing market noise, providing data-driven research, and simplifying complex information.
According to Alfredo, there has been a clear rotation towards defensive stocks, such as healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples, since July. This shift is due to concerns about potential structural rises in interest rates. These defensive stocks have seen outperformance due to their compelling valuations and the potential for rates to stay high for some time.
Currently, bond investors are pricing in a high level of volatility, while equity investors are remaining complacent. This could mean that equity investors should pay more attention to concerns around rate hikes and look into investing more defensively.
The topic of banks and their exposure to monetary policy tightening was also discussed. Alfredo mentioned that due to government intervention in March, the impact of rising short rates has been avoided, but the mismatch of assets is still a risk for these banks. They have been implementing strategies to manage this risk, but regulators are also pushing for them to raise capital and adjust their hedging. If lending growth takes a hit for these banks, it could have a negative impact on the job market.
Alfredo also discussed the potential impact of higher interest rates on the average consumer. With credit card debt continuing to rise and default rates increasing, it is important for consumers to be mindful of their spending habits in light of the economic pressures. The economies of the US and Europe are linked, and the effects of higher rates in Europe could have a spillover effect on the US.
In terms of commodity markets, uranium prices have been on the rise due to increased demand from utilities and potential supply cuts from China and Russia. However, uranium ETFs and miners have not yet caught up, as the risk sentiment needs to improve.
Lastly, Alfredo shared his views on oil prices and its inverse relationship with recession. While the price of oil may increase up to $100, anything beyond that could have serious ramifications for the economy and may not be priced in the market yet.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
3:05 - Equity Market Risks
7:45 - Rotations & Opportunity
11:12 - MOVE Index & the VIX
13:14 - Rates & S&P Earnings
15:43 - Rates, Metrics, & Recession
21:30 - Banks & Future Impacts
25:13 - Lending Standards
28:40 - Defaults & Credit Risks
31:40 - Global Economic Risk
35:21 - Dollar Performance?
40:38 - Gold & Silver
42:12 - Uranium
46:22 - Oil Price Shocks
51:52 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The markets have seen a rotation into defensive stocks since July due to increasing valuations and rising interest rates.
- Small businesses reliant on regional bank lending are expected to drive the job market, however, higher rates could take a toll on lending growth.
- Game of Trades provides actionable trades and strategies to members, ensuring the highest return possible.
Guest Links
Website: https://www.gameoftrades.net
Blog: https://www.gameoftrades.net/blog/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AlfredoJPinel
Newsletter: https://newsletter.gameoftrades.net
Alfredo is the Head of Research at Game of Trades. In this role he leads efforts in managing the direction of the research and investment strategy, while overseeing the production of various institutional-level quality research products.
Prior to joining the firm, Alfredo operated AJP Capital Management, an investment entity where he managed a global macro portfolio strategy. He was responsible for idea generation, research, trade execution and risk management in efforts to maximize absolute returns.
Prior to that Alfredo was the global strategist at Empirical Research Partners, an independent equity research boutique in New York City. In this role, he produced and marketed global portfolio strategy and stock selection research to institutional clients worldwide.
Alfredo Pinel holds an MBA from the University of Chicago and a Bachelor of Science in Industrial and Systems Engineering from the University of Florida. He is a CAIA charterholder.
In his spare time, Alfredo enjoys hiking in the beautiful state of California, alongside spending quality time on the beach with his family and perfecting the art of grilling.
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Keith Weiner: The BRICS have a Bigger Problem Than the Dollar
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, to the show. Keith is the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals.
Keith discusses the stark contrast in attitudes towards gold between the West and countries in the Middle East, India, Turkey, and Australia. He notes that in these countries, there is a high level of activity in the gold market, with investors buying gold for wealth planning and intergenerational wealth purposes, rather than just as a hedge or speculation. This is partly due to cultural factors, such as the Koran's command for Muslims to have gold, but also due to the impact of US monetary policy on these countries. They are more conscious of the US dollar and their own currencies, as they do not have access to dollar swap lines like other countries. This forces them to be more aware of the risks of currency pegs snapping and the importance of owning real dollars.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Weiner also discusses the role of the US dollar in the global economy, noting that it is seen as a safe haven and a means of exchange in many countries, giving it a strong position in the world. He also talks about the rise of the BRICS nations and their desire for an alternative to the US dollar, but argues that they lack the necessary trust and stability for a gold-backed currency. Instead, he suggests that they may settle their trade deficits in gold, but this would require a neutral jurisdiction and the involvement of companies like Monetary Metals.
Weiner also discusses the current state of the US economy, especially the recent rise in interest rates and its impact on the financial system. He criticizes the Fed's actions of propping up certain institutions and prolonging the boom, which could lead to a major crisis in the future.
In his recent series on the anti-concepts of money, Weiner explains how these concepts are used to deliberately confuse and obfuscate reality. He argues that the government has propagated these concepts to reinforce their own paradigm and that the victims are actually voting for their own harm. He also discusses the concept of inflation and how it is linked to honesty in financial dealings, and advocates for the gold standard as a better system that puts the saver in charge and forces honesty in the financial system. He encourages people to opt out of the banking system by buying gold as a way to protect themselves from the coming train wreck.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:36 - Global Gold Sentiment
8:22 - BRICS & The Dollar
14:37 - Trust & Confidence
18:52 - Bifurcation of Rates
31:02 - Anti-Concepts of Money
38:48 - Defining Inflation
41:50 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold is valued differently in the West compared to countries in the Middleast, India, Turkey, and Australia, where it is seen as a means of intergenerational wealth planning.
- The US dollar holds a strong position in the global economy, but the rise of the BRICS nations may lead to settling trade deficits in gold through a neutral jurisdiction.
- The government's use of anti-concepts of money and inflation to reinforce their own paradigm is harmful, and the gold standard is a better system that puts the saver in charge.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01
Website: https://monetary-metals.com
Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.net
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
#KeithWeiner #MonetaryMetals #GoldStandard #BRICS #Gold #GlobalGoldMarket #USMonetaryPolicy #Dollar #GlobalEconomy #InterestRates #Fed #FinancialCrisis #AntiConceptsOfMoney #Inflation
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Mike McGlone: The Generational Financial Reset is Here and the Fed Can't Help
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Mike discusses the key indicators signaling an upcoming recession such as tight liquidity which points to a hard landing. The stock market is also at an all-time high relative to GDP since 1936, a sign of a possible recession. Additionally, Europe is in recession, and China is facing declining growth. This recession is a result of a combination of human nature and external factors, such as the autocratic leadership in China and the overbuilding crisis. Mike cautions against speculation surrounding potential escalations with Taiwan or Russia, but notes that the leadership in China may look to place blame for the country's woes outside itself.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Mike also discusses the tensions in the South China Sea and the role of the US dollar and US power. He believes that the dollar is seen as a reliable partner in the international community due to its security and willingness to do business. In contrast, the Russian and Chinese models do not involve the US dollar, which could lead to a global economic reset. The push for electric vehicles onto Europe by China is seen as a deflationary force due to the advancement of technology.
Mike is optimistic about the strength of the US dollar and resists the idea of a global depression, instead stating that deflationary forces are kicking in. He expects the Fed to not hike rates in November and cautions that the market may be overvalued given the current economic situation. Ultimately, he advises investors to focus on the returns offered from US Treasuries and limit exposure to high-risk assets. He also encourages investors to look two years ahead to make informed investment decisions.
In terms of commodities, Mike discusses the surge in US surplus of liquid fuel and crude oil, making OPEC less significant. Gold is the best performing industrial metal and is expected to perform well during the recession. Mike expects the stock market to drop significantly and gold to reach $3,000 per ounce as the US heads towards recession.
He cautions traders to define their risk, protect their stops, and accept when they're wrong, in order to be successful. In conclusion, Mike emphasizes the importance of objective analysis and avoiding confirmation bias in trading and investing. He also mentions his commitment to helping Miami Dade College students understand trading and prove that markets will always do what they should, it's just a matter of time.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:56 - Markets & Soft Landings
4:43 - China & Demand
10:35 - Eastern Concerns
13:21 - ECB & Europe Concerns
15:35 - Winter & Energy
17:58 - US Dollar Strength
20:30 - PPI & Fed Hikes?
25:40 - Cyclical Inflation?
29:09 - Big Reset Ahead?
32:50 - Dr. Copper & Oil Demand
36:09 - Gold & Currencies
38:39 - S&P To Gold Ratio
40:16 - Wrongs & Rights
44:45 - Thinking Clearly & Exits
46:20 - Crypto & Bitcoin
51:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points:
- The precautions and strategies needed for investment decisions during a recession.
- Tight liquidity has pushed markets to a recession with most indicators signalling a severe downturn coming.
- Bitcoin is serving as a reliable leading indicator due to its 24/7 global liquidity.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/
Mike McGlone is Senior Macro Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures.
Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor's of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation.
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Justin Huhn: The Uranium Bull Run is Here
Tom welcomes back Justin Huhn to discuss the uranium markets which recently hit a 12-year high. Justin explains that this is significant because it is happening during the slow season for the market and without much involvement from financial players. He also notes that the spot price has been steadily rising on small volumes, which is unusual and could be a sign of a tight market.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Justin also mentions that there is uncovered demand for 200 million pounds of uranium in the next five years, which is a concern as there is not enough supply to meet this demand. The only entity with enough uranium to satisfy demand is China, but they are also increasing their nuclear capacity, which could deplete their inventories. He predicts that by 2030, China alone will require 70-80 million pounds of uranium per year. Justin also addresses the concern that China may sell their uranium inventory into the market, but he believes that they are more likely to acquire more uranium due to their plans to become a nuclear powerhouse. He points out that the evidence shows that China has been buying uranium this year, not selling it.
The situation in Ukraine has caused uncertainty and supply risk for utilities, leading them to be more cautious in their contracting. China will likely increase their acquisitions of uranium projects in Africa to meet their demand, as their domestic production is insufficient. The price reporters have started to warn utilities about the supply shortfall and to expect higher prices. The market is facing a near to midterm supply shortage, and it is uncertain if or when this situation will be resolved.
The US remains heavily reliant on Russian uranium deliveries in the near term, but efforts are being made to secure more domestic supply, particularly through developing enrichment capabilities for future SMR demand.
The spot market has changed significantly in recent years, with utilities now primarily turning to the term market for their needs. Justin also discusses the impact of a broader market sell-off on the uranium sector, stating that while it could cause a temporary dip, his confidence in the market's long-term potential remains high.
Justin's personal approach to trading involves holding long-term positions and avoiding chasing all-time highs. He believes that while the sector may be overbought at the moment, dips are likely to be short-lived if the price of uranium continues to rise. He also emphasizes the importance of understanding the physical market and the fuel cycle when making investment decisions.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:47 - Uranium's Performance
5:40 - Low Volume Big Moves
9:24 - Supply/Demand Situation
17:33 - Incentives to Sell?
22:50 - China's Energy Plans
30:05 - Clear Uranium Picture
34:44 - Russian Uranium
36:23 - U.S. Domestic Supply
39:17 - Grand Canyon Deposits
43:32 - Markets Shifting?
48:45 - Recession Risks?
51:25 - Long-Term Trades
53:57 - Sprott SPUT News
1:00:40 - Coming SMR Demand
1:05:48 - Educate & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Uranium market hits 12-year high during a slow season, driven by supply shortage rather than speculation.
- China's increasing nuclear capacity and demand for uranium could deplete their inventory, creating potential for future supply shortage.
- Despite recent price increase, uranium sector remains insensitive to price and utilities will continue to buy to keep plants running.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/
Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletter
Twitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsider
Nuclear Now - Oliver Stone: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21376908/
Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin's thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro's "Focus List," as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.
Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uranium shares. Regrettably, the Uranium Insider Pro subscription letter's subscriber growth and breadth no longer allow him to provide this tool.
@UraniumInsider #JustinHuhn #Sprott #Uranium #Nuclear #Energy #Utilities #SupplyConcerns #FuelCycle #SPUT #Russia #China #SMR #SPUT #Utilities
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The Great Taking - The Elite Class Plan to Leave the Rest of Us With Nothing
Tom welcomes back, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content.
In this interview, they discuss the book The Great Taking by David Rogers Webb. The book explores the potential for a protected class of elites to take assets from the general public, such as stocks and bonds. Mike explains the importance of understanding property rights and how they are being eroded in the financial system. He also discusses the concept of dematerialization and harmonization and the impacts on property ownership.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
The book presents evidence that the current financial system is set up to benefit a select group of secured creditors, leaving individuals vulnerable in the event of a market crash. Mike and Tom discuss the possibility of a planned seizure of assets in a financial crisis, citing changes in legislation and the deliberate underfunding of a central clearing party. They also discuss the potential for a global reset and the importance of tangible assets, such as physical gold, in a time of zero trust.
Mike believes that gold will serve as a wealth preserver and silver will be valuable for trade and barter. They also touch on the importance of building communities and preparing for potential changes in the global financial system. The interview ends on a positive note, emphasizing the importance of relationships and living in the present moment. Mike encourages listeners to think about parallel structures and alternative ways of living.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
- The Book 'The Great Taking' explores the erosion of property rights in the financial system and the potential for a select group of elites to seize assets from the public.
- Mike and Tom discuss the historical timeline of how physical assets have been replaced with intangible book entries, leaving individuals vulnerable in the event of a market crash.
- The importance of tangible assets like physical gold in a time of zero trust and potential global financial change.
- The importance of finding fulfillment beyond material possessions.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:03 - The Great Taking
6:58 - Property Rights
9:02 - Legal Constructs
14:50 - Securities & Certificates
16:20 - Shares & Ownership
20:12 - Depository Trust
23:30 - Not Your Assets
27:45 - Scary Scenarios
32:10 - Central Bank Hubris
38:00 - No Stone Unturned
40:20 - Share Certificate Risks
44:20 - Inevitable Collapse
46:00 - Recovery or Stagnation?
49:42 - UBI & Managing Poverty
51:23 - Physical Gold
52:52 - Silver's Importance
54:24 - Parallel Systems
55:50 - Back to Simple Systems
57:20 - Everything is Prepared
58:34 - Controlled Demolition
1:00:50 - Risks & Taking Action
1:09:16 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYt8UcqG2wvkehnmiF_9Akw
Twitter: https://twitter.com/parallel_mike
Patreon: https://patreon.com/parallelsystems
Book Reference: https://thegreattaking.com/
Mike is a precious metal's investor, organic farmer and host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares content relating to finance, geopolitics and personal liberty.
#Ownership #PropertyRights #TheGreatTaking #Securities #Legal #Collateral #Default #Harmonization #Globalism #MonetaryVelocity #Stagnation #CyberPandemic #AlternativeLiving #GlobalReset #AssetSeizure
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Bob Coleman: Decoding the Silver Industry
Tom welcomes Bob Coleman CEO of Idaho Armored Vaults back to the show. Bob discusses some of the shifts and patterns in the precious metals market this year. He explains that the increase in SLV shares by authorized participants does not necessarily reflect an influx of new investors or a rise in silver purchases. Rather, it could simply indicate the moving of existing supplies. Due to low physical volume, borrowing costs, and short positions in the futures market, sentiment levels have been fluctuating and frustrating investors. Bob also identifies factors such as rising interest rates and competition for assets as key contributors to the lack of physical demand. He notes that as the current trading range for metals continues, the potential for a significant breakout or breakdown also increases. Bob advises investors to stick to buying physical metal and paying in cash rather than using leverage or options, as the market often holds unexpected surprises.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Bob reminds listeners to let the information come to them instead of trying to predict the market. He notes that the past months have seen little significant news, leading to a stagnant market. Some investors may not be fully aware of what goes into the digital silver representation of certain financial instruments, presenting a problem for the market. As money shifts away from one asset, it must find a new place to go, and this process takes time to understand. Bob also mentions the current trend of central banks buying gold and how this could impact the market during a crisis. He believes that the silver market, in particular, is oversimplified with an emphasis on paper investments, and that current physical support is growing, but many investors have lost interest due to the absence of news.
Bob also mentions the rise in production costs for silver, potentially contributing to its current price compared to other assets. He suggests that rising costs, specifically for copper and gold, could be future factors to push up gold and silver prices. Bob's technical analysis of the silver and gold charts leads him to predict that September could be an interesting month for precious metals, as it tends to be seasonally weak for both metals and the stock market. He also speculates on the possibility of informal controls in China to curb imports and support their currency, leading to a disparity in premiums between the Chinese and Western markets. Bob concludes by noting that physical premiums have dropped significantly in the past year, with American Silver Eagles being the only product with enduring pricing power. He believes that this could lead to a balancing of the market and a potential surge in new buyers, and comments on the Silver Symposium's history of marking low points for silver prices in the past two years.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:55 - SLV ETF & New Shares
3:51 - Futures Positioning
6:56 - Borrowing Costs & Shorts
10:18 - Metals & Market Signals
14:12 - Digital Metal Risks
16:58 - Trends & Instabilities
22:09 - Tax Revenue & Miners
25:16 - Silver & Gold Patterns
33:16 - China & The West
36:48 - Physical Premiums
41:40 - Silver Symposium
45:45 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The shifts and patterns in the precious metals market, including low demand, rising production costs, and central bank gold purchases.
- Bob advises investors to stick to buying physical metal and paying in cash, rather than using leveraged or options, as the market continues to hold surprises.
- September may be interesting for precious metals and notes potential factors that could push up gold and silver prices.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.
#BobColeman #Silver #Gold #PreciousMetalsMarket #SilverMarket #PhysicalDemand #BorrowingCosts #ShortPositions #InterestRates #CentralBanks #TechnicalAnalysis #SilverSymposium
607
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Michael Gayed: Junk Debt Could Topple the Markets
Tom welcomes Portfolio Manager Michael Gayed, author and publisher of the Lead Lag Report, back to the show.
Michael highlights the current market situation and why it is challenging to make accurate predictions about the near future. There is overconfidence amongst investors that the economy will avoid a recession, despite increasing default risks. Additionally, most believe that stocks will continue to outperform, even though the charts are not indicative of a new bull market.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Michael also shares his concerns about Treasuries and the rising possibility of bank failures. He believes that the Fed is more reactionary and less anticipatory, and they will most likely take a longer time to respond to the current economic situation. We are approaching a crucial turning point, and something must be done to address the mounting issues.
Michael explains the importance of the Gold to Lumber ratio, which acts as a leading indicator for the housing market. He has faith in this ratio as it has proven to be an accurate indicator of market trends.
Finally, Michael discusses the irrationality in markets and its possible outcomes. He believes that the market is in a state of euphoria, which may lead to a severe downturn in the future. He also highlights the need for more rationality.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - Complacency Risks
3:54 - Market Concentration
7:00 - Irrational MeltUps
9:02 - Crypto Thoughts
11:15 - Treasury Concerns
15:42 - Bank Failure Risk
17:42 - Central Bank Reactions
24:43 - Refinancing
26:10 - Housing Concerns
28:34 - Consumers & Oil Prices
30:10 - Japan & Oil Imports
33:29 - Japan Treasury Holdings
35:03 - Gold/Lumber Ratio
38:18 - FOMO & Equity Bubbles
41:30 - Anxiety & Confusion
44:15 - Safe Haven Trades
45:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Weeks Episode
- Market overconfidence despite increasing default risks and absence of new bull market indicators.
- Concerns about treasuries, bank failures, and Fed's reactionary approach.
- Importance of Gold to Lumber ratio as leading indicator and irrationality in markets leading to a future downturn.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.leadlagreport.com/
Website: https://www.tidalfinancialgroup.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreport
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/theleadlagreport
Michael A. Gayed, CFA, is Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management, an award-winning author and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report.
Michael is a well-respected results-oriented Investment Manager showcasing 15 years of successfully executing initiatives that result in significant revenue growth. In addition, he is known for identifying and implementing various investment strategies to capture market anomalies while maintaining a business mindset beyond portfolio management.
Michael offers a proven track record of evaluating business/investment opportunities, quickly understanding market dynamics and relationships. He is also an out-of-the-box thinker committed to strengthening organizations' financial performance through dedicated hard work and a passion for investing.
He is a graduate of (Cum Laude) NYU Stern School of Business with a Double Major in Finance & Management and has a Bachelor of Science in Finance & Management. In addition, he is a Chartered Financial Analyst from the CFA Institute.
#MichaelGayed #Complacency #Risk #Leverage #Meltups #Equities #Bonds #Banks #Housing #Consumers #Oil #Lumber #Gold
453
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4
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Christopher Aaron: Gold and the Miners - Why Isn't There More Interest?
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron to discuss his perspective on the markets. Gold and miners have seen an extreme lack of sentiment leading to prices down fifty plus percent for major companies, and even worse for exploration companies. This largely is a product of psychology and current price action, with investors waiting for a potential catalyst to decide where gold is headed.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
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► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Chris explains his approach to metals markets, noting it's important that investing should not be focused on fundamentals alone, since they can lead to blinders when markets do not perform the way expected. He uses charts to demonstrate the flat Dow-Gold ratio in the past few years, signalling that we have entered an uncharted area with regards to freely traded gold. An impulsive move is likely to occur in the coming months in favor of either stocks or gold. Christopher also talks about possible technological advancements, as well as his expectations for gold's movement in the next one to two years.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:53 - Metals Sentiment
3:30 - Catalysts & Gold Price
9:00 - Narratives & Vision
11:50 - Price & His Approach
13:05 - Charts Dow to Gold
20:18 - Saving Vs. Investing
27:20 - Future Opportunity
29:10 - Gold Outlook
31:20 - Dollar Strength
33:33 - New Frontiers Vs. Savings
37:00 - Euro Vs. Dollar
42:23 - Dollar Index
45:30 - PM Investing
48:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold and miners have seen an extreme lack of sentiment, leading to major drops in prices.
- Investing should not be focused solely on fundamentals to avoid blinders when markets don't perform as expected.
- There is likely a to be an impulsive move in the coming months in favor of either stocks or gold.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGold
Website: https://igoldadvisor.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.
Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.
Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business, with advanced Department of Defense training in intelligence analysis.
#ChristopherAaron #Gold #Silver #Miners #Sentiment #InvestorInterest #Conviction #Debt #Technology #Optimism #FutureTrends #Commodities #Energy #Diversification #Dollar #Euro
609
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2
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Patrick Karim: Gold and Silver Reveal Fiat Fraud
Please, welcome back to the show, Patrick Karim! To start, Patrick asks, "Why is gold going up if it's so useless?" He shows a yearly gold chart which reduces a lot of the noise and remarks that we have been consolidating above the 2012 neckline for some time and are in a period of purchasing power decline even more acute than that of the 1970s. The chart he shows compares housing priced in gold for a single family home and reveals that in terms of gold ounces, houses are actually flat or perhaps slightly cheaper, thereby destroying the illusion of value in terms of fiat currency. By contrasting commodities against each other, much more stable patterns can be seen.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
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Karim outlines the bullish outlook for uranium and highlights the past outstanding performance of Cameco, but emphasizes the importance of taking time to do personal research to interpret technical charts - emphasising that these can be spun in various ways with different time frames. He maintains that technicals can give one an edge, but it's necessary to do your own work.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:20 - Self Censorship
4:05 - Gold Long-Term View
10:52 - Gold The Bear Case
17:37 - Housing in Gold
21:03 - Fiat/Silver Vs. Crude
23:20 - Different Perspectives
27:33 - Heat Map & Sectors
31:40 - Energy Vs. Tech
34:30 - Uranium Outlook
41:00 - Cameco Vs. Nasdaq
44:26 - Technicals & Volume
52:00 - Trends & Exits
58:14 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold consolidating above the 2012 neckline, indicating increasing purchasing power.
- Comparing commodities reveals more stable patterns.
- Always do personal research to interpret technical charts.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1
Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/patrickkarim
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.
#PatrickKarim #Gold #Silver #Nasdaq #Crude #Technicals #Charts #Trading #Uranium #Cameco #Housing #Inflation
738
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Michael Pento: Market Meltdown will Intensify Inflation & Ignite a Currency Crisis
Michael Pento returns to the show to discuss the bond market and the possibility of a recession. He believes we should experience an official recession by the end of the year, based on metrics other than just GDP that already show flat or declining activity. The recent actions the Fed took to boost banks by changing the Discount Window is similar to a very quiet bailout. This will allow banks to continue to lend recklessly. It appears Powell doesn't know what he's doing. Money supply should be determined by a tangible like gold so it can remain steady and only increase with economic activity.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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Inflation is likely to come back and will be treated with the Fed re-targeting it's inflation goals. This can result in the public losing credibility on the Fed. Furthermore, there is a risk of the U.S. gradually losing reserve currency status. Entitlement programs are estimated to reach 100% of government income by 2040, leading to a freefall economy. The only solution is a depression and a corrective period in which people can understand why it happened. Government will do its best to keep the party going though, which will destroy the dollar's value.
Everything is looking increasingly like a banana republic and we aren't headed towards more freedom. The Fed introducing its own cryptocurrency could increase control mechanisms and give it tremendous power. These are very real dangers.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:08 - Equities & Bond Outlook
6:16 - Fed Policy & Q.E.
9:40 - Japan & Bond Volatility
15:27 - Inflation Outlook & Targets
17:08 - Recession & Equities
20:53 - Deficits & Entitlements
23:32 - Untenable Choices
26:26 - Global Problems
28:15 - Sectors & Outcomes
32:20 - Investing Approach
35:38 - Collapse of Faith
37:18 - Freedoms & CBDCs
42:21 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
- Recent Fed actions point to an impending recession and have created a quiet bailout of the banking system.
- Inflation is likely to return and cause the value of the US Dollar to drop.
- Entitlements will reach 100% of government revenue by 2040 a mathematical impossibility.
- The Fed introducing a CBDC could give it tremendous power over the population with increased control mechanisms.
Guest Links:
Website: http://pentoport.com
E-Mail: mpento@pentoport.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, with over 27 years of investment experience. He was the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios that raised over $3 billion, distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. He is the author of the book "The Coming Bond Market Collapse" and has a weekly podcast called "The Mid-week Reality Check."
#MichaelPento #Bonds #Dollar #GDP #Recession #Risk #Fed #MoneySupply #Entitlements #Inflation #Stagflation #Deficits #Depression #CBDC
896
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Tim Price: The Cracks in the Edifice are Starting to Form
Tom welcomes back Tim Price from Price Value Partners to discuss the issues the world now faces. He feels we are "standing on the edge of the debt precipice." Many countries are mired in heavy debt, thus leaving three options; maintain the servicing of existing debt, restructure the debt (essentially defaulting), or the usual way out - inflating the debt away. It comes as no surprise that inflation is front and center. Although, metrics around inflation are often distorted, leading many to believe it is much higher than acknowledged. The Fed's next developments may be to pivot, even with the past intention to raise rates further. If hard decisions had been taken after 2008, many of these issues may have been avoided. Alas, the only way out now appears to be more printing, risking the currency's destruction.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Tim then moves onto discussing the risks posed by Japan and how it differs from other Western countries, as well as the Biden administration and their policy drift. Globally, this has eroded trust in the financial integrity of the United States.
Inflation is typically linked to excessive money printing and supply, thus rendering rates mostly irrelevant. We are likely close to some sort of systemic crisis thus making assets, such as gold, the free market fix. No entity can fix these problems; what cannot go on forever eventually won't.
The discussion turns to ESG and its effects on politics and finance. ESG tends to be powered by large institutions, like Blackrock, but now there appears to be a reversal of these policies. Tim examines the benefits of holding gold in this environment.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:35 - A Debt Precipice
1:52 - Three Debt Choices
3:56 - Pivots & Rates
7:02 - Japan & Contagion Risks
10:38 - BRICS Rising & Inflation
14:35 - Financial Sins
18:08 - State of the Markets
22:46 - Trend Following Funds
28:07 - Charts & Finding Value
30:57 - Historical Comparisons
34:52 - ESG & Mkt. Distortions
38:14 - Shifting Narratives
43:58 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Three options exist for dealing with debt - servicing, restructuring, or inflation.
- ESG policies are being reversed, with gold becoming the preferred asset to hold in this environment.
- Rising debt and excessive money printing has pushed us close to a systemic crisis - no entity can fix this.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TimPrice1969
Podcast: https://www.sotmpodcast.com/
Website: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/
Articles: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/commentary
His Book: https://www.amazon.ca/Investing-Through-Looking-Glass-Irrational/dp/0857195360
Tim Price has worked in the capital markets for over 30 years. A graduate of Christ Church, Oxford, he spent a decade as a bond specialist before going on to serve as Chief Investment Officer at three separate wealth management firms.
Tim has been shortlisted for five successive years in the UK Private Asset Managers Awards program and was a winner in 2005 in the category of Defensive Investing. He is now co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, a fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks, and specialist value funds, from around the world. He also co-manages bespoke private client portfolios.
Tim writes for MoneyWeek Magazine and The Spectator, and his weekly commentaries are freely available at the Price Value Partners website.
#TimPrice #PriceValuePartners #Deficits #Debt #Inflation #Default #Miners #Gold #TrendFollowing #ESG #FinancialCrisis #Japan #Biden #USTrust #SystemicCrisis
233
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Geoff Blanning: Ex Nihilo - Money From Nothing and the Catastrophic Impacts of Inflation
Geoff Blanning, a former investment manager, is the author of the white paper “Put Tools Away Now, Please” and is co-producer of the Cobden Center documentary film “Ex Nihilo, The Truth About Money”. The objective of the film was to make the complex world of finance accessible to the average person and educate the public on the monetary system. He aims to persuade politicians to make changes to the UK's Bank of England and stem out the overwhelming cost of living squeeze.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
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The Cobden Centre's view is to create sustainable growth by having an “honest money” that preserves its purchasing power across generations. This requires a constrained central bank balance sheet, preventing chronic inflation. The expansion of the balance sheet has led to money being pumped into sectors such as property and financial which has led to a disparity of money and resources between sectors.
Geoff talks about the effects of financial sector speculation and how it misallocates labour and resources. He mentions the British government's target to combat inflation and mentions cryptocurrency as an example of misallocated resources. He identifies possible solutions such as education and political change, and notes that it will take a crisis to push this change in the right direction. He also explains the idea of 'monetary socialism' and how the interest rate should be set by the market for a more sustainable and less volatile monetary system.
A link to The film and further information is available at the links in the description below. The film is available for free on YouTube, and people with little or no background in finance have expressed a good reception to it. Geoff wishes to spread the film to the financial sector and make inroads, as many people do not understand the importance of money.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:52 - Documentary
1:20 - Trailer
4:18 - Understanding Money
6:08 - Inspiration
8:40 - Challenges Producing
12:04 - The Film's Reception
13:20 - Honest Money & Growth
16:10 - CPI Growth/M4 in U.K.
19:05 - Cantillon Effect
20:24 - Impacts of Cheap Money
22:05 - Crypto Concerns
22:38 - Fighting Inflation
23:58 - Interviews with Bankers
25:36 - Possible Solutions?
30:37 - Monetary Socialism
32:00 - Roadblocks to Change?
34:52 - Reception & Objectives
36:48 - Wrap Up
Guest/Documentary Links:
Film: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cSyctENy3A
Website: https://www.honestmoneyinitiative.com/
Website: https://www.cobdencentre.org/
Geoff Blanning is a former Investment Manager and Member of the Group Management Committee at Schroders Plc, author of "Put the tools away now, please" (2021) and Co-Producer of "Ex Nihilo: The Truth About Money" , a Cobden Centre documentary film, which exposes the fundamental flaws at the heart of our monetary system.
#Documentary #HonestMoney #MonetarySocialism #PurchasingPower #Inflation #CostOfLiving #PoliticalChange #CentralBanking #Crypto #ExNihilo #Rates #Markets #Education
754
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Brian Hirschmann: $7000 Gold & The Global Debt Contagion Powder Keg
Tom welcomes Brian Hirschman back to the show. Brian is Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership which is occasionally referred to as the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund."
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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Brian discusses how many investors don't know how to value gold in comparison to other assets. He explains how they have a methodology for analyzing the gold price over long times. Currently it's below the fifty year average and that could cause gold to skyrocket in coming years. He explains why gold did quite well during the inflationary period of the 1970s. Gold is the one asset that has no counterparty risk.
Gold has seemingly lagged possibly because bond investors remain confident in their inflation expectations but should that perspective change we will see gold rise. High inflation can be caused by excessive debt which can cause investors to dump that debt. This is especially a problem developing for the United States and some other Western nations.
He discusses the British Empires debt to GDP ratio and how they eventually defaulted on their obligations. He explains how Japan's approach differs but there situation remains precarious. Japanese depositors are now getting negative return when adjusted for inflation which has been increasing. It's possible that depositors might decide to start investing elsewhere to seek returns. This could become a big problem for the Bank of Japan.
Brian explains why global bubbles are worsening and why we could see multiple collapses all at once. Whatever bubble bursts first will take others with it. The situtation has only deteroriated and he expects to see higher inflation again soon.
He gives some targets for where gold and the miners could head as a result of the economic situation that is developing. Brian also talks about why the Mining ETFs and equities have largely not kept up with the gold price.
A.I. will probably improve economic growth but it likely won't be the panacea to get us out of the coming crisis.
Demographics are contributing to the entitlement problems and why the budget looks awful. This also means a general decline in the labor force which is not good for GDP.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:30 - Perspectives & Time
5:40 - Golds Recent Performance
8:10 - Inflation Causes & Effects
12:30 - Debt & Avoiding Default
20:10 - Capital Control Contagion
25:00 - Cures & Causation
28:00 - Growing Global Bubbles
37:30 - Gold Price Target
39:30 - Resource Valuations
41:20 - GDXJ Performance
43:10 - A.I. & Inevitable Crisis
45:30 - Demographic Issues
46:55 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold is currently trading below its fifty year average, making it a potential investment opportunity.
- High inflation caused by excessive debt could lead to a gold surge.
- Global bubbles, demographics, and A.I. could all contribute to a coming crisis.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLC
Website: https://www.hcapital.llc
Brian Hirschmann, CFA, is the Managing Partner at Hirschmann Partnership (HP) launched in 2014. Since its inception, HP has outperformed its benchmarks by a substantial margin despite being the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund," according to ValueWalk.
Previously he was an associate at Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies (GSPS), a multi-billion dollar hedge fund whose alumni include Robert Rubin, Tom Steyer, Daniel Och, and Eddie Lampert. After GSPS, Brian returned to Los Angeles to join Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management where he was an equity-owner and made over $1 billion in long-term investments.
Brian graduated with distinction from Yale, where Professor Robert Shiller strongly influenced his investment philosophy. Robert is one of the few to predict both the dot-com and housing bubbles. Robert was also influenced by Professor David Swensen, Yale's legendary endowment manager.
#HCapitalLLC #BrianHirschmann #Gold #GoldPrice #HistoricLevels #Inflation #Rates #Risk #Japan #Bonds #Deposits #BOJ #Cape #Miners #Resources #Demographics #Entitlements
675
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Craig Hemke: The Economy is Clearly Now in Recession
Tom welcomes Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report back to the show to discuss metals and bank involvement. Hemke talks about how certain entities are able to manipulate prices and make profits, and how the Commitment of Traders Report reveals these positions. He also discusses the possibility of another short squeeze and how this could impact prices. He then explains why the Commitment of Traders Report is not an ideal trading tool, and breaks down his strategy for making decisions regarding the metals market.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
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Craig then moves on to discuss the economy between the US and Japan, namely the Bank of Japan and the US Dollar. He talks about how the monetary policies of both countries are affecting global markets, and goes on to discuss how the dollar index is being affected. Craig explains why August is always a slow month for trading and speaks on the dangers of servicing the massive US's debt.
He also talks about the current and future situation with the Federal Reserve, noting that the jobs report in August could be underwhelming and other factors that will affect Jerome Powell's rate decisions. Craig then suggests that gold prices should start trending upwards in September and rally in October/November. Finally, he encourages patience and believes that the doldrums should end soon.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:30 - COT Reports & Trades
5:44 - Bi-Manipulation
13:45 - Summer Volume Signals
16:53 - DXY Levels & Psychology
20:49 - Dollar/Yen & BOJ
25:52 - Fed, Debt & Deficits
28:39 - Magnitude of Problems
32:30 - Mortgage Rates & Lags
36:50 - 70+ Year Mortgages
38:10 - Silver Supply Deficits
41:00 - Jobs Report & Numbers
47:36 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Craig explains how large entities manipulate the commodities market.
- His strategy of identifying large speculators positions can help predict price rallies.
- He suggests that gold prices will rally in October and November due to current positioning and COT reports.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFMetals
Website: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe
#CraigHemke #SilverSqueeze #CTFCReport #PhysicalMetals #Positioning #Commodities #Fed #StructuralDeficit #Supply #Gold #Silver #COTReports
Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services," he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets."
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Michael Lynch: Is Blackrock Intervening in American Silver Eagle Production?
Tom welcomes Petroleum Engineer and Analyst Michael Lynch to discuss the big movers in the silver market. He provides diagrams of how metals flow from the market to the retail level, and mentions how the United States Mint is legally required to meet the public's demand for gold and silver Eagles, though not other mint products.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
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Michael covers the costs for producing Silver Eagles, as well as how the premiums have changed lately. He believes the Mint's production issue is due, in part, to a lack of available blanks from supplier mints such as Sunshine Mint, which have experienced labor shortages and production challenges. He believes that Blackrock's Ishares SLV Trust is being used to heavily influence the market, keeping everyone happy but the retail buyers.
Michael suggests the Mint could solve its problems by bringing blank production in-house; this would give them more flexibility with production. He also suggests silver stackers consider selling ASE's and buying larger bars in order to minimize premiums and get more ounces.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:15 - U.S. Mint Operations
5:00 - Silver Eagle Sales
6:44 - ASE Costs & Premiums
10:38 - Current Situation
13:46 - Supply Dysfunction
19:30 - Premium Overview
24:33 - Blackrock & IShares SLV
28:54 - A-Mark Share Prices
33:39 - ASE Premium Dynamicso
38:15 - Conclusions
48:22 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
- The Mint has been unable to meet demand due to alleged production issues with blanks, but some suggest Blackrock is manipulating the market through Ishares SLV Trust.
- Silver stackers can avoid premiums by buying larger bars instead of Silver Eagles.
- A solution to the Mint's shortage would be to bring production in-house, giving them more production flexibility.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.reddit.com/user/Ditch_the_DeepState/submitted/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DtDS_WSS
Substack: https://econanalytics.substack.com
Michael Lynch has a background as a Petroleum Engineer and developed a keen interest in the history of money as a result of witnessing the collapse of the Indonesian currency. This interest has brought him to study the behavior of the Comex, JP Morgan, and SLV paper contracts.
#MichaelLynch #USMint #SAE #Silver #Eagles #SilverSupply #Blackrock #IShares #SLV #Dealers #Retail #Manipulation
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