Bob Moriarty: The World is Functionally Bankrupt
Tom welcomes Robert Moriarty back to the program to discuss the latest in interesting times in finance. Bob explains where the money is really coming from to bail out the recent failures in the banking system, noting that the $200 billion figure has ballooned to $2 trillion. The Federal Reserve has effectively committed to printing $2 trillion in a week, which is unprecedented.
Bob believes that the system can't be repaid mathematically, so something is bound to blow up, leading to inflation and deflation in response to the new debt. He also covers the history of banking in the United States and the purpose of the Glass-Steagall Act, as well as the impact of geopolitical risk.
Bob expresses his dismay about the quality of the leadership in the US and his concern about the potential for increased conflict. He concludes that there is no real limit to how much money can be spent on bailouts, and that sanctions and conflict risks seem to be increasing, without helping the situation.
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Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:55 - All Debts Get Paid
4:28 - Causes & Bond Markets
8:23 - Flationary Effects?
15:17 - Saudis & Ukraine
18:05 - Sanctions & Seizures
21:00 - Alt. Competing Systems
23:30 - New Standards
25:44 - FDIC Bailout-ing
27:42 - Cash & Real Assets
29:42 - Shares & Margin
31:42 - Geopolitics & Conflict
37:07 - Collum Year-In-Review
41:21 - Gold Price & Miners
43:53 - Scary Times
46:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why the existing monetary system is destined for complete failure.
- The expansion of the BRICS+ countries and heightening geopolitical tensions.
- What possible actions will the Fed undertake to "fix things" in this environment.
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.321gold.com
Books on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
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Chris Irons: Bank Crises, Fed Pivots, and The Hard Landing Reality
Tom welcomes back Chris Irons from the Quoth the Raven podcast to discuss the lack of fear in the markets, which is questionable considering the current circumstances. We are still far from the despair of a bear market, and the belief in a return to normalcy has kept equities overvalued.
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Recent events have pointed to a much harder landing than predicted, and this is just the beginning of the problem cycle. It may take months for rate hikes to affect the financial plumbing and cause further dominos to fall.
Nobody knows if the Fed has things under control or when more issues will arise. The Fed is attempting to quell panic with more panic, and they will likely choose to let inflation win over destroying the economy. This should be a great time for precious metals investors to sit back, relax, and watch the show. The Fed will probably be late with the right response, kick-starting a supercycle for gold. Eventually, they will cave and resume printing, supposedly to restore prosperity. Any move by the Fed will be amplified substantially.
Chris believes there will be a major blow up within crypto and the stablecoins, with most of the dollar-pegged coins eventually going to zero. He suggests if dabbling the space then invest solely in Bitcoin and avoid other riskier crypto assets. Lastly, he touches upon the problems with the dollar's reserve status and a recent interview with Andy Schectman on Kitco.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:36 - Panic With Panic
6:29 - Market Psychology
9:36 - Speculative Excrement
14:16 - Contagion Risks
18:04 - Soft Landing/Bailouts
23:12 - Market Risk & Gold
27:22 - Fed Policy Effects
29:16 - Inflation Re-Targeting
32:55 - Crypto Contagion & Banks
39:20 - Crypto Dollar Peg Frauds
43:50 - Dollar Hegemony Status
47:25 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
- Recent events have pointed to a much harder landing than predicted, and this is only the beginning of the problem cycle.
- Precious metals investors should be in an excellent position to relax and watch the show as the Fed will
likely be late with the appropriate action.
- Why the Fed will allow inflation to win out given the alternatives.
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videos
Podcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.com
Substack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Andy Schectman Interview: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/a-tsunami-of-inflation-one-interview
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast, a show dedicated to discussing Fringe Finance topics and exploring the boundaries of investment decisions. Irons has spent years reading the news and has developed a strong opinion on the mainstream media's ability to drive a narrative which serves the interests of a small minority. His focus is to provide content that is rarely found elsewhere and to curate content from people he respects. Irons is not afraid to challenge the mainstream narrative or succumb to it when it serves the collective best interests.
Chris is not providing investment advice and the content on The Quoth The Raven podcast/substack is not meant to be taken as such. Anything mentioned should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
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Brett Oland: Benefits of Gold Backed Banking For Protecting Your Wealth
Tom welcomes Brett Oland, the CEO of Bow Valley Credit Union, about their gold-backed initiative. Brett has been in the banking world for 20 years and he is a chartered accountant and CPA.
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Brett believes that inflation is a massive problem and it will continue for the foreseeable future, resulting in the devaluation of the US dollar. Brett explains currency printing, debt to GDP ratios, and how governments have crossed the debt to GDP Rubicon. Brett also discusses the environmental hysteria surrounding the green revolution, the US sanction list, and the One Belt One Road initiative, as well as the US unfunded liabilities and the worldwide pension crisis.
Tom then asked Brett about the possibility of a European nation, such as Spain, Greece, or Italy, falling as a result of the rise in DXY and commodities. Brett believes the US Federal Reserve will pivot either through quantitative easing or interest rate reductions. Brett suggests that the tool to stabilize the US balance sheet is gold, as it is globally accepted, and the US would need to couple their currency or treasuries to gold to prevent a massive deflationary event.
In order to protect Bow Valley Credit Union from the potential economic downturns, Brett has created a strategy to anchor part of their balance sheet with gold. Brett believes this strategy provides an effective way to hedge against tail risks, such as a devaluation event. Brett encourages everyone to talk to their local credit union and push for change in order to protect their finances against inflation.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:35 - Background
2:09 - A Gold Initiative
5:26 - The Convoy Protests
9:44 - Fintrac & Policies
13:00 - Presentation
18:08 - Inflation & Devaluation
26:30 - Japan & Yield Control
32:16 - Fed & Treasury
36:13 - Dollar Global Status
38:34 - Importance of Energy
42:27 - U.S. Unfunded Liabilities
49:24 - Three Options
59:16 - Scenarios & Gold
1:01:07 - Gold as Insurance
1:06:24 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why gold is an effective tool to stabilize the US balance sheet and hedge against tail risks.
- Credit unions should consider anchoring part of their balance sheet with gold.
- Consider talking with your local Credit Union for changes to protect member wealth.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.bowvalleycu.com
Brett Oland is the CEO and President of Bow Valley Credit Union, a position he has held for the past 4 years. Before his current role, Brett served on the Board of Directors of Credit Union Central of Alberta for 7 years. He was also on the Board of Directors of Bow Valley Credit Union for 6 years, with 2 of those years serving as Chair.
Brett holds a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Calgary and is a Chartered Professional Accountant, Canada. He also holds the ICD.D (Institute of Corporate Directors Designation) from Rotman, University of Toronto. With over 20 years of experience in the banking industry, Brett is a highly respected leader in the field.
#Gold #Inflation #DebtToGDP #GDP #GreenEnergy #Sanctions #China #UnfundedLiabilities #Pensions #DXY #Dollar #Commodities #Hedging #Risk #Banking #CreditUnion #Alberta #Canada
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Gareth Soloway: Gold - The Safe Trade in a World of Absolute Risk
Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for InTheMoneyStocks.
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The Fed was discussing transitory issues, but now they are talking of a mild recession. They have built a house of cards heavily reliant on rates and printing, and no one knows what could break in the system today. The unintended consequences of their actions could lead to a collapse. Despite this, the Fed may be reluctant to curb interest rates, meaning we could be in for a protracted period of recession lasting several years.
Investors today are used to the Fed coming to the rescue, particularly since 2009. But if they don't, markets and investors will be confused about how the recovery will work out naturally. Credit card debt is skyrocketing and car loans are seeing defaults, leading Gareth to believe we are in for a long drawn out recession. People have been overspending since the end of the lockdowns, and soon will have to cut back. Countries with resources, particularly metals, will likely do better than most. China is seeing a surge in demand internally, and it will be interesting to see if this leads to an inflation surge.
Gold is still attractive for its use as a fear trade, and can also do well during inflation. However, it has yet to outperform this year. Servicing the debt will put a burden on the system, while corporations will also have issues refinancing. There are many layoffs coming as a result. Gareth believes the downside for gold is minimal, and the upside is potentially amazing. Silver is trickier to gauge because of its industrial demand aspects, but should perform well if your time horizon is longer than average.
The dollar could continue higher if we get through this recession, which will in turn pressure metals and equities. We need to keep an eye on the jobs numbers on Friday. The decline in natural gas futures has been impressive and we are now in a trading range. Gareth still believes the Bitcoin markets are likely due for a further decline, and that we are seeing similar patterns. A bear market rally appears to still be in play, and a pullback to 18,000 or even lower seems likely. A recession or pullback in equities will also impact the crypto space, so lower targets remain possible. Gareth believes regulations in crypto will benefit the markets, as it will allow institutions into the space. Right now, legally they would have a lot of trouble investing.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:35 - Feds In Control?
3:50 - Rates & Recession
5:18 - Weakness Starting?
7:29 - Global Outlook & China
9:12 - China, Copper, & Steel
10:40 - Gold & Inflation
12:30 - Black Swans & Tensions
13:28 - S&P Outlook Charts
16:36 - Gold Chart
20:36 - GDX Outlook?
21:58 - Silver Chart
23:00 - Dollar Direction
24:15 - Energy - Crude
25:25 - Trendlines & Closes
26:54 - Natural Gas Futures
28:46 - Bitcoin Volatility
31:39 - Trading Tip
33:40 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSoloway
Website: https://inthemoneystocks.com/
Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.com
Website: https://verifiedinvestingeducation.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/
Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. "Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets," he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship.
After building his wealth through trading in 2004, he left the financial industry to trade his own money and study charts and technical signals. This was when he met Nicholas Santiago. The two top traders spent days trading stocks/futures together, and nights putting their collective brainpower into the pure genius that would become the PPT Methodology.
He has given lectures at colleges around the United States, been asked to train hedge fund traders in other countries, and taught thousands of investors how to invest and trade profitably, achieving their dreams of financial independence. He lives life to the fullest and puts his heart and soul into teaching his members who come willing to learn the PPT Methodology.
#GarethSoloway #Fed #Inflation #Recession #Defaults #ConsumerDebt #Copper #Steel #Gold #Silver #NatGas #Oil #GDX #Regulation
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Bix Weir & Steve St. Angelo: Secret Stores of Gold, Free Markets, and the Energy Cliff
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Bix Weir, and Steve St. Angelo for a lively and professional debate around metals manipulation and mining. Bix believes there is a large amount of gold in the Grand Canyon region, while Steve believes it's uneconomic to mine both logistically and due to energy costs.
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The conversation focuses on Charles Spencer and his attempts to mine gold in the area in the early 1900s, and how his efforts failed due to the fineness of the gold and the lack of a profitable return. They also discussed the New York Times article from 1912, which Steve speculated was an attempt to get more investors to invest in the mining operation even though it had been shut down.
The conversation then turned to the KISS principle, with Steve discussing the energy return on investment of oil, and how it has been steadily falling since its peak in 1970. This has caused a variety of issues, such as inflation, and Steve believes that it is more important to focus on energy than to get lost in the details of the manipulation theory.
Louis McFadden, the chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency from 1920 to 1932, was then discussed, with Bix believing that he wanted to fix the problem of mines being uneconomical by introducing a tax of fifty percent. This was intended to give the miners a premium and encourage more gold production.
The two experts then discussed gold and silver as money. Steve argues a lot of this money has been lost throughout time. Bix also spoke of the fixing of the price of gold at $20.67 in the US in 1900, which the banks knew would cause a lot of mines to fail due to the increasing costs.
Finally, Bix and Steve discussed institutional investors and their lack of understanding for investing in silver and gold, and how the US Mint is required by law to produce coins in quantities equal to demand, yet they are only producing a third of what they are capable of. They believe that something bigger is going on and that the US Mint is holding back coins from the public.
They agree that gold and silver prices have been manipulated by large banks and the US government, but they disagree on the role of energy in the pricing. They also discuss the KISS principle, the energy cliff due to declining oil production, the Comex, and the US Mint's apparent lack of increased production of silver eagles. They emphasize the importance of energy, saying that it always comes first and is the foundation of the economy and all that we do. Lastly, they agree that silver will outperform gold in the coming years.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introductions
4:47 - Grand Canyon Gold?
21:30 - 1900 Gold Supply
33:54 - Gold Price Fixing
36:57 - Taxes on Gold
41:18 - Counterarguments
50:00 - Gold Manipulation Chart
1:00:10 - Derivative Impacts
1:01:43 - Todays Production Costs
1:06:05 - Supply/Demand & Price
1:09:55 - Mining & Energy Use
1:15:25 - 1980 Highs & Benchmarks
1:25:40 - High Frequency Trading
1:27:10 - Reserve Disparities
1:29:34 - Silver Eagles & Supply
1:39:12 - Energy & Fairy Tales
1:45:22 - Energy & Crypto Mining
1:46:54 - COMEX, Hedging, & ETFs
1:57:22 - Revaluation & Metals?
2:03:24 - Shale & Energy Sunset
2:06:20 - Silver Lining Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReport
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.
Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles on some of the top precious metals and financial websites.
Guest Links:
Website: https://roadtoroota.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/RoadtoRoota
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC73WeDULjX2BwsSmICJ0y0w
Bix Weir has 30 years' experience in the financial industry with various fortune 500 companies. He is the creator of the "Road to Roota Theory" and his commentary is published at www.RoadtoRoota.com. Bix has dedicated his efforts over the last 15 years to exposing the long term manipulation of the gold, silver & crypto markets. He has worked closely with the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee helping to pull the curtain away from the Cabal of International Bankers that has taken control of our free market system.
"May the Road you choose be the Right Road."
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Danielle DiMartino Booth: Special Fed Minutes Review - The Credit Cycle Has Come Unglued
Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, she is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, a research and analytics firm. Danielle has a new offering on the Substack she recently started.
https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
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Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, she is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, a research and analytics firm. Danielle has a new offering on the Substack she recently started. https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
Tom and Danielle discuss the recently released Fed Minutes and the potential implications for the US economy. DiMartino Booth stated that the minutes were massaged in order to correct any market misperceptions that the Fed was going to pause its tight monetary policy. She also points out that jobs were not mentioned in the minutes, even though bankruptcies and job losses are on the rise, and that consumer credit card debt had jumped to an all-time high. DiMartino Booth argues that the Fed was trying to hide behind specious inflation and jobs data in order to keep up its tight policy stance, and she notes that income tax refunds were down 14% year-over-year.
They also discussed the debt limit issue, which DiMartino Booth describes as kabuki theater, but argued that it should still be a topic of discussion in order to address entitlement spending.
Lastly, DiMartino Booth discusses the recent nomination of Austin Goolsbee to the Chicago Fed and the White House's subsequent appointment of two more candidates after the leaked voting result against Goolsbee. This, she argued, was a victory for the hawks on the Fed and a loss for the White House. She also highlighted the recalculation of CPI, which she believes will help the Fed when it eventually eases its policy.
Danielle discusse the Fed's minutes from the last meeting which just came out. What is interesting is what is missing from the notes, namely labor and disinflation.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:42 - Minutes Review
2:16 - Labor, Debt & Bankruptcies
7:23 - Monetary Policy Lag
10:30 - Financial Conditions?
12:04 - Debt Limit Theatrics?
15:26 - Feds Path Forward
18:50 - CPI Adjustments
20:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Review of the Fed's minutes from their last meeting and what was missing.
- Fed acknowledging the lag time of policy decisions to effect and seasonal CPI adjustments.
- U.S. debt ceiling limits and why it's entirely theater.
Guest Links:
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Website: https://quillintelligence.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
#DanielleDiMartinoBooth #Fed #CPI #Inflation #Wages #Labor #Unemployment #Disinflation
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Doomberg: Energy Trade-Offs, Unsustainable Policies, & Impeachable Offenses
Tom welcomes back the Head Writer from the Little Green Chicken consulting firm AKA Doomberg.
Editors Note: Doomy is using a voice modifier.
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Doomberg discusses the consequences and risks of the probable U.S. coordinated attack on the Nordstream pipeline, arguing that it's likely an impeachable offense and such actions set a bad precedent geopolitically. He notes that the media would likely not be ignoring the news had Trump taken similar measures.
He then addresses the use of Substack, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses. He expresses the importance of staying professional, stating that the traditional media's hatred of Substack may be indicative of its importance.
Next, he talks about the tradeoffs between shipping petrochemicals via rail and allowing pipelines, which are cheaper and safer. He acknowledges that no mode of transportation is without risk, and that the media has become adept at using propaganda when it comes to energy.
He then reflects on California, a beautiful and prosperous land that encourages progressive thinking, although its ideas around energy are largely incorrect. He expresses his disagreement with the idea of preventing others from climbing the affluence ladder, which requires energy.
He then discusses home energy and efficiency, noting that there is currently a push for heat pump systems. He highlights the added complexity and cost, as well as the fact that they don't work well in extremely cold temperatures. He states that one needs an extremely reliable grid for such systems. He argues that if we had more nuclear and very stable grids, there would be benefits, but warns of the dangers if one's home loses heating.
Doomy explains the importance of base load power and the problems with high-intermittency systems like wind or solar. He acknowledges that grid scale battery solutions are difficult to achieve and that we lack the will to develop sufficient mining to gather the necessary metals to realize these ideas.
He then looks at Diablo Canyon, the last nuclear plant in California, which recently has been extended to stabilize the grid. However, he claims that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission have done their best to suppress most existing and all new projects, stating that they are completely captured by the environmental movement. He suggests that some problems are too big to fix and just need to be eliminated.
Lastly, Doomy provides his outlook on the crypto market, expressing his concerns around FTX and Tether. He emphasizes the hindrance and surveillance of the conventional financial system, and worries that Central Bank digital currencies will only exacerbate that control mechanism.
Talking Points From This Episode
- The alleged U.S. coordinated attack on the Nordstream pipeline may set a dangerous geopolitical precedent.
- The importance of alternative journalism platforms like Substack.
- Green energy goals and concerns regarding electrically dependent Heat pump systems in areas with poor electric grids.
- Why the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is completely captured by the environmental movement.
- Central Bank digital currencies will further hinder and surveil.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:47 - Nordstream & America
4:28 - Putin Apoligist & Media
12:14 - Journalism & Substack
18:40 - Pipelines Vs. Rail
26:27 - California & Energy
30:14 - Heat Pumps & Home Energy
35:32 - Thar She Doesn't Blow
39:53 - Grid Scale Solutions?
44:33 - Diablo Canyon & NRC
50:27 - Emissions & Green Agendas
56:45 - Crypto Regulations?
59:40 - Tether & Dollars
1:03:22 - Banking Privacy & Control
1:07:03 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergT
Website: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
#Doomberg #NordstreamPipeline #ImpeachmentRisk #Substack #Petrochemicals #RailShipping #Propaganda #EnergyEfficiency #HeatPumpSystems #BaseLoadPower #GridScaleBatteries #DiabloCanyon #NRC #CryptoMarket #FTX #Tether
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Nevada King Gold - “Destined to Discover” (TSX-V: NKG; OTCQX:NKGFF)
At the root of every successful exploration program is the people who make it happen. Yes, the gold has to be there - but experience and tenacity are a driving force behind the teams that discover future gold mines.
At the Atlanta Mine in southeast Nevada, Geologist Hayden Smith has taken on that responsibility for Nevada King Gold Corp. In “Destined to Discover,” Hayden explains what attracted him to geology, and details the elements that keep him engaged every single day as he helps establish Nevada King as a serious player in the Nevada gold space.
Nevada King is a dominant explorer and developer, focused exclusively on the Battle Mountain Trend, Nevada’s most prolific gold mining belt. The company is Nevada’s 3rd largest active claim holder, with plans to become its 2nd largest. In 2023 it anticipates drilling 30,000+ meters at its Atlanta Gold Mine Project.
Learn more at: https://nevadaking.ca/
Keep updated on Nevada King Gold at Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/nevadakinggoldcorp
Follow us on twitter at: https://twitter.com/NevadaKingGold
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Jeffrey Christian: Central Bank Gold Buying and Recession Outlook
Tom welcomes back Jeffrey Christian Managing Partner of CPM Group. Jeffrey is an expert on the gold and silver markets.
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Jeff explains that in 2000, they issued a buy recommendation on gold at around $285, due to the political and economic environment that was going to last for decades. He then outlines the different drivers for gold and silver in different market environments, as well as the optimal level of metals in a portfolio. He examines the idea that China holds 40,000 tons of gold in its reserves, and why China does not want to have the reserve currency of the world.
Mr. Christian also explains why the mining industry has a lower beta compared to the price of the underlying metal. He states that due to a lack of investor interest in the sector, along with the rise of stock index funds and ETFs, institutional investors have been cutting costs and reducing their involvement in individual stock trading. This has caused a contraction in the stock market, reducing the buy side's ability to support research. He also explains the red, green, blue bubble chart that takes into account many different factors that CPM puts together, as well as the potential for hydrogen engines in the future and the importance of specialty metals, such as tantalum, in the electronics industry.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Commodity Research
5:24 - Factors Driving Metals
10:07 - Gold & Silver Differences
11:44 - An Optimal Portfolio
14:03 - Bad Data & Conjecture?
20:09 - Gold & China
24:56 - Gold Reserves & Sources
36:15 - China & Reserve Currency
39:00 - BRICS Effects & Dollars
44:40 - Mining Equities & Beta
49:30 - Inflation & the Media
55:18 - CPM Recession Outlook
57:37 - CPM RGB Bubble Chart
59:01 - A Year of Transition
1:02:27 - Metals & Energy Scenarios
1:05:10 - Fossil Fuel Future
1:07:16 - Platinum & ICE's
1:10:14 - Tantalum Uses & Supply
1:12:36 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The drivers of gold and silver in the commodities market, as well as the optimal level of metals in a portfolio.
- The asymmetry of the gold and silver markets, and how bad data and misinformation can lead to incorrect decisions.
- China's gold industry and why they don't want to be the reserve currency of the world.
- Uses for the specialty metal tantalum and the importance of Australia becoming clean source of the metal.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLC
Website: https://www.cpmgroup.com/
Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.com
YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
#JeffreyChristian @CPMGroupLLC #Gold #Silver #Commodities #CPMGroup #Drivers #Politics #Economics #RiskReward #Energy #FossilFuels #Tantalum #Electronics
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Bob Elliot: Gold the Excellent Risk Diversifier that is Widely Underheld
Tom welcomes Bob Elliot to the show he is CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds.
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Bob Elliot discussed the current economic situation, the role of debt cycles, and the trade-offs between a fiat monetary system and a commodity-based system. He noted that productivity is the main driver of growth over the long term, and that debt cycles have been used to make up for declining productivity. He explained the risks associated with governments borrowing to make up for productivity declines and noted that wage growth is maintaining nominal spending at a higher level.
Bob also discussed the Great Depression and Japan's deflationary trap, arguing that the US has been more successful in responding to deflationary forces due to their policy mix.
He also argued that the Federal Reserve should be agile in responding to data rather than predicting what will happen and mentioned gold as a great diversifying asset to protect against tail risks.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:10 - Our Economic State
4:01 - Demographics & Labor
11:14 - Wage Growth & Inflation
16:38 - Limits to Debt Growth
23:08 - Destabilizing Effects?
27:20 - Recessions & Deleveraging
31:03 - Great Depression Response
35:30 - Japanese Debt Levels
40:04 - U.S. Immigration & GDP
43:43 - Perpetual Growth?
46:27 - Fed Policy & Response
49:34 - Hiking Cycle & Effects
52:40 - Risk & Open Mindedness
56:07 - Gold & Going Defensive
59:04 - Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode
- Productivity is the main driver of long-term growth, but current GDP numbers are low.
- Debt cycles have been used to make up for declining productivity and support asset prices.
- Trade-offs between fiat monetary system and commodity-based system.
- Federal Reserve should be agile in responding to data rather than predicting outcomes.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
Course Article: https://t.co/Yc6ZBXaEJ8
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital and private equity.
Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio's personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He's the author of hundreds of Bridgewater's widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world's foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.
Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. There he revamped the investment strategy for the company's $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.
#Productivity #Debt #GDP #Stimulus #Wages #Productivity #DebtCycles #DeflationaryForces #Immigration #InterestRateHikes #Gold #TailRisks
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Alfonso Peccatiello: Immaculate Disinflation or a Serious Crash?
Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show.
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Alfonso is predicting a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year. He bases this prediction on three indicators - the frozen housing market, the Fed’s attempt to engineer tighter financial conditions, and the reaction of central banks to inflation. He also talks about immaculate disinflation, which is an environment where inflation comes down rapidly without a recession. The market is pricing this, which means people are selling insurance trades like the dollar, volatility, and cash, and buying high-beta stocks. Alfonso disagrees with this take and believes a recession is still more likely than a soft landing.
He notes that the stock market usually bottoms before earnings bottom, and that valuations start to rise as the Fed cuts rates. He believes that a true bull market won't be seen until 2024, and that people should be wary of trying to anticipate the Fed's pivot. He also notes that the bond market underpins everything in the current financialized economy. The amount of debt between private and public sectors is 300-400% of GDP and bond yields are the price of the cost of borrowing. An inverted yield curve has hardly ever mis-forecasted a recession, and he cautions against believing that “this time is different”.
Finally, he talks about net liquidity decreasing due to the Fed running off its balance sheet. The Treasury General Account is taking the hit instead of reserves, but once the debt ceiling debate is resolved, the Treasury General Account will need to be replenished. This will cause a double whammy effect on liquidity between June and December, with quantitative tightening running on the background. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve’s running off its balance sheet removes liquidity from the system.
Alfonso also talks about how to avoid getting stuck in a narrative and what data should be paid attention to. He recommends self-awareness, training oneself to not think that one knows everything, and building a macro process and data-driven macro process. He advises looking for episodes of extreme market conviction, as it allows one to understand when things are getting stretched and when people are assigning too much conviction. He also encourages people to become active macro investors, as this is a much more complicated investing landscape than before.
#AlfonsoPeccatiello #Inflation #Recession #Fed #CentralBanks #YieldCurve #Treasuries #Housing #Employment #Sentiment #Risk #Macro #Gold
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
- Alfonso predicts a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year, based on three indicators.
- The market is pricing in a soft landing but more likely a true bull market won't be seen until 2024.
- He advises looking for market conviction, examining the macro environment, and develop market self-awareness in order to understand the complex financial landscape.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:05 - Base Case For Markets
4:30 - Immaculate Disinflation
7:44 - Recession Insurance
9:53 - Expectations & FOMO
19:12 - FED Timing & Pivots
21:55 - Macro & Bond Markets
25:29 - Yield Curve Inversion
29:38 - Fed Balance Sheet
35:05 - Narratives & Data
39:40 - Risks & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.themacrocompass.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf
Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com
Alfonso Peccatiello is the Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, a disruptive investment strategy firm whose mission is to democratize professional macro analysis, tools and portfolio strategy.
The Macro Compass leverages Alf's experience running large pools of institutional money and offers financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategy.
Before launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso was the Head of Investments for a $20 billion portfolio for ING Germany.
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Christopher Aaron: Golds False Breakdown Means a Strong Bull Market Ahead
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron. He discusses his new analysis that he recently discussed at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.
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He discusses the history of gold and miners over the past few years. We've seen a period of consolidation of the last couple of years, but that is shifting. In September, we didn't see a wash-out in the metals after a breakdown. Instead, we went above the 1650 level. Buyers started to move into the market, which was different behavior than what we have seen. The big picture is we have seen a false breakdown that doesn't carry through. Numerous shorts had to cover following that event. The key takeaway is a false breakdown is a signal for a move in the opposite direction.
The big picture is this market should now be biased to the upside. He expects a good end to the year for gold. He believes the next rally towards the 2000 level will be successful. The first sign will be that the monthly close will prelude a breakout to new all-time highs. He provides some targets for where gold should reach.
Chris discusses what is realistic for silver markets in the coming couple of years. Eventually, when we reach the $45 dollar level, investors may want to take some profits. It probably won't blast through it right away. He discusses some of the industrial demand factors for silver.
He believes that inflation will plateau around the 4.5% range, and later it may rise higher. This is not what markets are expecting.
Valuations for miners are quite low, and the price for reserves in the ground is quite low. We're looking at 5x to 10x lower valuations than ten years ago. He notes that sentiment remains quite low in the miners and metals. Only very prudent investors are moving into metals.
He notes there are those who like to keep the population in a state of fear and concern. They like the state of perpetual war, and fiat currency is what permits this behavior. They want to keep people on the taxation and inflation treadmill. We need a system that prevents government from spending beyond its means.
What is important to keep in mind is that society in many ways is progressing. Despite the bad things, there is a lot of potential, and it's important to keep space for possibility and optimism.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:44 - Analysis & Gold Outlook
7:30 - Technicals & Resistance
10:47 - Fundamental Issues
14:10 - Measured Target
16:12 - Silver Vs. Gold Mkts.
24:42 - Dollar & Metals
26:27 - Fed & Inflation
30:12 - The Lag in Miners
38:17 - Sovereign Opportunities
41:54 - War, Gold, & Narratives
48:51 - Taxes - Words & Numbers
51:20 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- Analysis of the gold and silver markets, plus price targets.
- Dollars impact on the metals and the effects of inflation.
- Taking personal responsibility and finding sovereign opportunities.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGold
Website: https://igoldadvisor.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metal's investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 to 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.
Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.
Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business, with advanced Department of Defense training in intelligence analysis.
#ChristopherAaron #Gold #Technicals #PriceAction #Resistance #GSR #Silver #PriceTargets #Inflation #Miners #Valuations #Government #Taxation
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Phil Denniston: Free Markets, Education, and The Gold Standard
Tom Welcomes author and economist Phil Denniston. Phil discusses the inadequacies of his economics education and how economic problems around the year 2000 caused him to question it.
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The bursting of the housing bubble lead him to study and learn from a more rational school of economic thought. All the world's problems come back to the bubble-bust cycle and debt.
Capitalism is a spectrum and our system has elements of free markets, but it's not truly free. We set the price of money, and price fix many markets. All of which create distortions. We have cronyism, where markets are controlled by interests of the highest bidder. The types of people we need in government aren't likely to want the job.
A lot of economic activity occurs due to the price fixing of money. We blow up asset prices and create bubbles. This maintains zombie companies that shouldn't be around any longer. Capitalism requires failure, but that doesn't happen as often as it should. The result is stagnation and eventually recession or depression.
Every dollar today is created as a loan. Debt is principal plus interest, and more dollars will be needed to repay it. We have to have endless growth within a finite world. A lot of conflict comes back to the money system. Our current system is the aberration, in normal economic times money is tied to something of value. Free markets always choose a backed system. Government intervention in the system can only make things worse.
A return to the gold standard will never occur until they are forced into this solution. When things blow up, there will be only one way to restore confidence, which is a backed currency. Hopefully, we actually have the gold reserves the U.S. government claims. Collapse will bring short to medium term pain.
Humans are herd animals, and we fear being cut-off from the rest of the tribe. It's important to train yourself to think differently and apart from the propaganda. Group think can be dangerous, and it's key to stand up for what you believe in. Focus on what you can control.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:04 - Economics Journey
6:06 - Those In Charge
9:40 - Fed Distortions
13:42 - The Economic Endgame?
17:56 - Inherent Flaws
19:43 - Systems & Government
27:15 - Realigning Incentives
29:35 - Better Bedtime Stories
34:29 - Madness of Crowds
36:52 - Concluding Thoughts
38:49 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Guest Links:
Website: https://inflationeducation.net
Twitter: https://twitter.com/inflationedu
Phil Denniston is founder and CEO of InflationEducation.net, better bedtime stories revealing the secrets of the debt-based fiat money system using the principles of liberty, sound money, Austrian Economics, and Natural Law. Phil holds a BA in Economics from the University of Colorado. With InflationEducation.net, Phil married his two passions: Understanding what's behind the curtain in finance, markets, and geopolitics, and using that nightly ritual building memories with your children to teach them how the system really works. Phil is also a contributing author for PeakProsperity.com.
#PhillipDenniston #Economics #Government #Incentives #Capitalism #FreeMarkets #Debt #Dollar #GoodIntentions #GoldStandard #Education
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Peter Grandich: The Best Gold Bull Market I Have Ever Seen
Tom welcomes returning guest Peter Grandich to the show, Peter Grandich. Peter discusses the potential for this gold bull market and why it's likely extraordinary. Central banks are buying at record levels, and many of those buying are doing it for safety reasons. Don't bet against the Fed and don't bet against central banks when it comes to gold. Mining shares have yet to reflect, and arguably as cheap as they can get regarding the price of gold.
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We started to see some liquidation last year, but not as much in the retail sector. Most investors and money managers today have never seen a real downturn. Investors need to start value investing because the tailwind of printing trillions has stopped. The Fed is probably not in a position to start the printers back up. Inflation is hard to fix.
People are more concerned about running out of money than dying because retirement is going to become a major issue.
The world has a tremendous immigration and social spending problem. Many immigrants will not be productive, but will fall into the support systems. There will be tremendous strains on government, and that will be passed onto the younger generation as a tax burden. This will create a war between age classes. There are many things that financial advisors are not taking into consideration.
It's remarkable how many additional metals are needed for electrification and electric vehicles. The global supply chain is hampered by a lack of interest in mining and investment in these sectors.
Peter discusses some of the problems with the U.S. power grid and why we need better solutions that will have to come from Nuclear Energy. This will require a significant time lag to build these projects.
The recent employment number was so surprising because they changed most of the metrics they used. Inflation is here, economy is on the rocks and people are going to notice when they have no discretionary income.
Talking Points From This Episode
- The potential of the bull market in precious metals.
- Why the Fed is unable to restart the money printing train.
- Electrification, the need for metals, and a lack of capital investment.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:44 - Sentiment & Gold Buying
3:42 - Gold Price Behavior
5:38 - Paper Derivatives
8:55 - A Changing Landscape
11:20 - Inflation & Retirement
15:46 - Fed Stuck
18:39 - Demographics & Economies
22:12 - C.B. & the Dollar System
24:10 - Global Supply System
27:35 - Copper & Energy Metals
31:13 - Uranium Sentiment
36:10 - Grid & Energy Concerns
38:35 - Trends in 2023
42:29 - Rates & Latent Effects
44:54 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://petergrandich.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/petergrandich
Peter Grandich entered Wall Street in the mid-1980s with neither formal education nor training. Within three years, he was appointed Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange member firm. He would hold positions as Chief Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager for four hedge funds, and a mutual fund that bore his name. His abilities have resulted in hundreds of media interviews, including Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Financial Post, Globe and Mail, US News & World Report, New York Times, Business Week, MarketWatch, Business News Network and dozens more. In addition, he has spoken at investment conferences worldwide, edited numerous investment newsletters, and was one of the more sought-after financial commentators.
Grandich has been a member of the National Association of Christian Financial Consultants, The New York Society of Security Analysts, The Society of Quantitative Analysts, and The Markets Technician Association. He is an active supporter of Athletes in Action, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, Good News International Ministries, and Catholic Athletes For Christ. Through Athletes in Action, Grandich assisted with Bible study and chapel services for the New York Giants and New York Yankees from 2002 to 2016.
His autobiography, Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid, was first published in 2011 and is now on its fourth printing.
Peter Grandich resides in New Jersey with his wife, Mary, and has one daughter, Tara. In 2015, he turned a three-decade dream into a reality by opening a storefront office in the "Norman Rockwell style" Jersey Shore town of Spring Lake. He then extended that vision by opening a satellite office in Millstone Township in 2019.
#PeterGrandich #GoldBullMarket #CentralBanking #Gold #Fed #Inflation #Retirement #Electrification #Copper #Uranium
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Michael Moor: All Pistons are Firing for Gold to Reach New Highs this Year
Tom welcomes back Analyst and experienced commodities trader. Michael now provides advisory through his website moor-analytics to bring actionable intel for traders.
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Michael is a technical-based analyst and has a deep understanding of commodities like the natural gas market. He believes that technical analysis can be a powerful tool to get in and out of markets before the fundamentals catch up.
The two experts discussed the technical patterns for gold, the S&P 500, and Bitcoin. For gold, they looked at various timeframes to gain more insight. On the S&P 500, they talked about the exhaustion levels and the bullish correction that could be triggered if the market holds. Michael also noted that the current character of the market is a corrective character, not a trending one. Finally, they discussed Bitcoin, noting that the rollover in November 2021 put the market into a bearish trend. However, they suggested that the market is building a base, and the nervousness has been put on hold.
Overall, Michael Moor is an experienced trader and technical analyst. He believes that technical analysis can be a powerful tool to get in and out of markets before the fundamentals catch up. He also looks at the macro level of a market, layering a shorter-term basis on top of that. He also looks at seasonality, which could be a major factor for example in the natural gas market. Finally, Michael is currently bearish on gold and expects a pullback in the near future.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
- Usefulness of technical analysis in predicting market movements ahead of fundamentals.
- The importance of seasonality in the natural gas market.
- Outlook for gold and why it could go quite high this year.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:00 - NatGas Chart & Trends
3:26 - Fundamentals?
7:13 - Thoughts on Crude
9:07 - Time Considerations
12:12 - Positioning
14:06 - Energy Strategies
20:43 - P.M. Analysis
25:10 - Gold Bull Trends
28:21 - General Equities
32:40 - Bitcoin Outlook
37:48 - Wrap Up
Guest links:
https://www.moor-analytics.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-moor-119b492/recent-activity/
https://twitter.com/Michael15564596
Michael Moor studied Management and Finance at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) in order to get a more technical financial background. After starting with Citigroup, he moved on to be a Trader's Assistant for Chicago Research & Trading (CRT) on the trading floor of the NYMEX, working with futures and options pit traders. He developed a reputation for consistently making large directional calls in the markets, and started Moor Analytics at the request of two Natural Gas and Crude Oil option traders. This grew to encompass over 1/4 the NYMEX membership as clients, and was the #1 large-call published analyst on the NYMEX for over 10 years until he moved the business off the floor. He has since also included European energies and Gold, and currently has proprietary traders, hedge funds, and oil companies as clientele.
#MichaelMoor NatGas #Technicals #CrudeOil #Energy #TradingStrategies #Gold #Bitcoin #Equities #Markets
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Andrew Hoese: The End of Cheap Energy Means More Systemic Inflation
Tom welcomes back Andrew Hoese from Finding Value Finance to the show. Andy runs an educational channel where he digs deep into economic data and conducts chart analysis.
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Andy Hoese discussed the real estate cycle and its effect on other markets. He explained that the cycle is driven by demographics and consists of four stages: recession, recovery, expansion, and hyper supply. Currently, he believes that we are in the recovery stage, but if interest rates are not lowered, then we are in the hyper supply stage.
He believes that the Federal Reserve is stuck in a tricky situation, as they must manage inflation and the baby boomer retirement, while also considering the base effect of inflation. He suggests that current inflation is being driven by credit expansion and the demographic that is coming into their peak spending years. This leads to a commodity super cycle and an imbalance between credit creation and things being created in the economy.
The Fed will have to hold interest rates higher in order to prevent a large inflationary problem, but that they will eventually relax and hold rates steady. He suggested that investors look for fractals and fundamentals when evaluating potential investments and pointed out the importance of using ratios to analyze investments.
He believes that platinum is particularly attractive right now because it is inexpensive compared to other metals, and energy service companies could benefit from an upswing in the market. Ultimately, the speaker believes that if a solution to cheap energy production is found, it could shift the current market conditions.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:32 - Real Estate Cycles
8:14 - Wages & Inflation
11:43 - The Fed Pause?
20:38 - PPI/CPI Ratio Chart
23:44 - M2/GDP Ratio Chart
25:22 - Ratios & Market Flows
29:13 - Rates & Inflation
30:00 - China & Global Demand
33:40 - Q.E. & Malinvestment
40:49 - Gaining The System
44:48 - Best Looking Sectors
50:58 - Energy Services & Uranium
54:13 - Energy Ratio Charts
59:50 - Uranium Charts
1:06:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The real estate cycles and the impact of demographics.
- The Fed's tricky position of managing inflation expectations.
- The outlook for commodities including energy, metals, and mining.
Guest Links
Website: https://www.finding-value.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Finding_Finance
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/ilikcagrls/videos
Andy Hoese is a Colorado-based investor and entrepreneur who is passionate about teaching people about the financial markets. He was born in Minnesota and graduated with a degree in manufacturing engineering from California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, CA.
Andy grew up with an affinity for mountain biking, dirt bikes, and competitive sports such as baseball and hockey. He was always good at math and science, which made his engineering degree the perfect fit. After working in aerospace engineering at his first job, he developed an obsession with investing and financial markets and would spend hours on YouTube researching and learning.
Andy started his own YouTube channel, Finding Value Finance, in August 2020. He is an avid car enthusiast who owns several rotary cars, including an RX-7 FD and an RX-8. He also likes to get out on the track for some racing during the summer and fall, and has been working out regularly since the age of 16.
Andy's three-pillar approach to investing includes ratios, market conditions, and technical analysis. He looks for alignment between these three factors when evaluating potential investment opportunities.
He is passionate about helping others to progress their own investment journey in a positive way, and hopes to make a lasting impression on everyone who joins his journey.
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David Murrin: Part 2 - Golds Time to Shine is Just Coming Into View
David continues the conversation discussing which commodities will be highly strategic. He belives all the metals are set to take off along with oil.
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David discusses the role of commodities in the conflicts of the world and how governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to secure essential resources and protect their economies. He also talks about the collapse of real wealth due to inflationary dynamics and asset price depreciation, as well as the devaluation of the dollar due to the money printing of central banks. He argues that the only lever central banks have to fight inflation is to raise rates, but this could have a crushing effect on markets and people's wealth.
David discusses various geopolitical themes to watch for in the coming year, such as the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, and inflation. David predicts that China may make a move soon and that the US, Japan, and South Korea would be the targets of a possible preemptive strike. He believes that Russia does not have the ability to mount an effective offensive in Ukraine and the Allies in NATO are prepared to back a Ukrainian victory. David also talks about the importance of being prepared for surprises and adapting to changing conditions. Finally, he reflects on the human desire to fight, noting that warfare can bring people together for a common cause.
0:00 - Intro
0:24 - Strategic Commodities
3:49 - China & Supply Chains
7:14 - Real Wealth Collapse
9:05 - Dollar & Devaluation
11:50 - Inflation Path & Rates
14:37 - Gold the Anti-Entropic
19:04 - Metals & Mining Stocks
23:02 - Geopolitical Themes
29:40 - Change & Perspective
37:03 - Wrap Up
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastr
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today's turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.
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David Murrin: Part 1 - The U.S. and Europe are in a Terminal State of Decline
Note: This episode is broken into two parts, second part will be out Wednesday.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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Tom Bodrovics interviews global forecaster and author David Murrin on the topic of the road to war being peppered with polarization. Murrin explains that the human strategy for survival is through social structures, and that wars between a weaker system and a rising system are necessary to create a better outcome. He also explains that war is regulated by the Kondratiev cycle which takes place every 56 years. He then talks about how China is seen as the primary polarizer, with America as the secondary polarizer. He then moves on to discussing Germany and how it has not yet responded with secondary polarization. He believes that Germany's reunification with East Germany was a reverse takeover, and that Germany has been subverted by Putin. Murrin then talks about the UK's response to Russia, and how misguided it is to not be increasing defense spending while at war with Russia. He says that the UK needs to be spending 5% of its budget on defense until the threat of China and Russia is abated.
David discusses the importance of lateral thinking, particularly in times of war. He posits that dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world. He explains the concepts of hunter-gatherers and agrarianism, pointing out that when the Western world is in decline, there is a disproportionate number of linear leaders who aren't able to adapt. He then moves on to discuss his five stages of empire model, which is a construct to explain human social systems, and the Kondratiev cycle. Central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to their linear thinking. He argues that the current wave of inflation is likely to lead to further escalation of wars and that China's need for commodities will drive its agenda.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:37 - Polarization & War
6:07 - Germany's Response
15:30 - Political Oscillations
16:53 - Stages of (Empire) Decline
27:46 - Disordered Thinkers
35:49 - Commodity Cycles
Talking Points From This Episode
- David Murrin discusses the Kondratiev cycle, which takes place every 56 years and regulates war.
- According to Murrin, dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world.
- Murrin explains how war is often linked to commodities and how central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to linear thinking.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastr
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
#DavidMurrin #Russia #Ukraine #Commodities #Politics #Dyslexia #LateralThinking #Strategies #Commodities #Inflation #KondratievCycle #War #Regulation #china
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribes people catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014....
Please see David's website for his full bio.
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Matthew Piepenburg: The Great Reset - Weaponizing Our Debt-Soaked World
Matt Pippenburg once again joins Tom Bodrovics on Palisades to discuss the Great Reset proposed by Klaus Schwab, and how it is a symptom of a broken and debt-soaked developed economy.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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Matt believes Schwab is an opportunist taking advantage of the COVID crisis, and his idea of 'stakeholder capitalism' is actually extreme centralization. This has never worked in history and has led to an addiction to debt, which has been weaponized by pharmaceutical companies, science, the media, political parties, and regulatory bodies.
Matt argues that journalists are no longer unbiased and have become propaganda tools. He believes many politicians have become opportunists and most people are good, but their faith in politicians is fracturing. Matt believes that any type of centralized system goes against human nature and the debt crisis has caused a massive wealth transfer from the lower and middle classes to the top 10%. This has left people too tired and too debt-strapped to take a stand for their freedom and makes them vulnerable to opportunists like Schwab.
Matt argues that the stock market has gone up due to money printing and rate repression, which is not what Adam Smith or free market capitalism was designed for. This has been great for the top 10% of American wealth, but it has destroyed the middle class and caused an addiction to this type of easy money. Matt believes that central bank policies have had an inflationary, social, wealth transfer, or political effect, which Ben Bernanke was awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics for. He calls out George Santos and Sam Bankman-Fried for their lies, and believes politicians should be held accountable for their decisions.
Matt believes that an objective truth is needed to determine what is right and wrong, and that the inflation scale used to measure the economy is completely fraudulent yet still widely accepted. He believes the Fed's pivot to quantitative easing will cause hyperinflation and further fracture faith in the Fed. He suggests that a reset may be the only option, but this could be highly chaotic and could be used to control people.
Matt explains that gold is a valuable asset for currencies and is an inflation hedge. He also likes agricultural land and Bitcoin's narrative, as gold offers certainty and security. He believes the US will experience stagflation, with slow growth and rising inflation, and that the Fed's pivot will be very dangerous. Matt encourages people to think more critically, question what they are being told, and be open-minded to changing their opinions. He believes sound money, regardless of what form it takes, is the solution to the issues that come with printing money.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Klaus Schwab's Great Reset is a symptom of the broken and debt-soaked developed economy.
- The debt crisis has caused an addiction to debt and weaponization of pharmaceutical companies, the media, political parties and regulatory bodies.
- Centralized systems goes against human nature and has caused a massive wealth transfer.
- Gold offers certainty and security as it cannot be mouse-clicked, hacked, or recreated and can't be controlled in the same way as a central bank digital currency.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland
Website: https://goldswitzerland.com/
Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/
Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is the Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management AG and the acclaimed author of the Amazon #1 Release, "Rigged to Fail". He is fluent in French, German and English, and a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA) and the University of Michigan (JD).
Prior to joining MAM, Matthew invested his own and other HNW family funds into alternative investment vehicles while operating as a General Counsel, CIO and later Managing Director of a single and multi-family office. He also worked closely with Morgan Stanley’s hedge fund platform in building a multi-strat/multi-manager fund to better manage risk in a market backdrop of extreme central bank intervention/support. His conviction that precious metals provides the most reliable and longer-term protection against potential systemic risk ultimately led him to join MAM.
Matthew's widely respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behaviour of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com.
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Sneak Peak - Premier Tonight - Central Banker "Options"
Palisades has an outstanding interview premiering tonight. Matthew Piepenburg discusses the three options left to central bankers.
https://youtu.be/oG7Yw6i4blg
@GoldSwitzerland #MatthewPiepenburg #Fed #CentralBanking #WEF #Davos #Debt #Recession #Stagflation #Hyperinflation
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Sneak Peak - Premier Tonight with Matthew Piepenburg
Palisades has an outstanding interview premiering tonight. Matthew Piepenburg explains why a lot more pain is likely coming to the markets this year.
https://youtu.be/oG7Yw6i4blg
@GoldSwitzerland #MatthewPiepenburg #Fed #CentralBanking #WEF #Davos #Debt #Recession #Stagflation #Hyperinflation
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Sneak Peak - Matthew Piepenburg - Fed Cornered
Palisades has an outstanding interview premiering Friday on YouTube with Matthew Piepenburg. We're in an impossible situation between stagflation or more inflation.
Hit Like and Subscribe - Friday Interview Link Below
https://youtu.be/oG7Yw6i4blg
@GoldSwitzerland #MatthewPiepenburg #Fed #CentralBanking #WEF #Davos #Debt #Recession #Stagflation #Hyperinflation
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Promo - Matthew Piepenburg - Why The Fed Needs Inflation
Matt also argues that the stock market has gone up due to money printing and rate repression, which is not what Adam Smith or free market capitalism was designed for.
Episode Premieres Friday.
https://youtu.be/oG7Yw6i4blg
@GoldSwitzerland #MatthewPiepenburg #Fed #CentralBanking #WEF #Davos #Debt #Recession #Propaganda #GreatReset #Politics #SoundMoney #Media
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Promo - Matthew Piepenburg - Debt and Crises
Palisades has an outstanding interview with Matthew Piepenburg which Premieres on Friday. Matt argues that journalists are no longer unbiased, politicians are becoming opportunists, and debt has caused a wealth transfer from the lower and middle classes to the top 10%.
https://youtu.be/oG7Yw6i4blg
#GoldSwitzerland #MatthewPiepenburg #Fed #CentralBanking #WEF #Davos #Debt #Recession #Propaganda #GreatReset #Politics #SoundMoney #Journalism
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Michael Oliver: Fed has Damaged Markets and Its Credibility
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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Michael discusses where we are in the bear market and how much longer it could last. He believes the next lows will set the tone for the bear market. Continued weakness in the Nasdaq is very bearish for broader equities, and since last June, there has been a lot of sideways chop in the S&P. A sell-off after the next high is certainly a possibility, and we should expect more volatility in markets this year.
The opposite is true of silver and gold, as the Fed is likely to become concerned about problems in the financial sector. Janet Yellen has commented on the lack of liquidity in the bond markets, and though 30-year bonds are in rally mode, Michael is skeptical that rates have peaked. A decline in bonds with rising yields seems likely. There is also pressure on the Fed which could lead to its demise in a few years.
We've seen a lot of paper assets decline in the past year, while gold and commodities have held up well. Consumer credit is skyrocketing, along with persistent inflation that is hitting families hard. Repossessions and mortgage failures are likely. If there is a new wave up in commodities, it will only further erode confidence in our leaders.
Silver's spread has broken out and is doing quite well in percentage terms; Michael compares gold's historic moves with today's, noting historically it's not unusual for gold to have eight-fold moves in a few years. He thinks the same could happen with silver and doesn't rule out $200 silver. He believes Bitcoin has been beaten up enough and will move sideways for some time.
Uranium has also been holding up well compared with pullbacks in oil and natural gas.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:30 - Bear Market Thoughts
5:45 - S&P, Gold & Silver
7:50 - Rate Hikes & Fed
12:08 - Dollar Confidence
14:50 - Fed's Options & Impact
20:53 - Inflation & Commodities
28:38 - Blame The Fed?
34:23 - Energy & Investors
37:28 - Gold Strength & Silver
45:10 - Bitcoin Reliability
48:32 - Thoughts on Uranium
51:02 - Expect a Volatile 2023
52:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The bear market and how much longer it could last.
- Gold and silver have been performing opposite to the bear market.
- An eight-fold move in gold is possible and has occurred historically.
- The Fed could soon reach a confidence crisis when its policies fail to work.
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
#Commodities #Momentum #BearMarkets #Volatility #Bonds #Fed #Dollar #Inflation #Recession #Gold #Silver
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