Michael Oliver: When Will the Miners Outperform Gold?
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis, explaining how they use momentum trends to look at the long-term picture of market sectors. Momentum can show something breaking before the price trend appears.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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He believes the Nasdaq is in a counter-trend rally which could work for a few months, but much of its performance is limited to a few over-weighted stocks. It wouldn't take much to initiate a new decline.
Michael discusses a point and figure chart designed to take out erratic price action with gold. He expects there to be a point where moves in gold and silver are so dynamic that big swings won't matter.
He then talks about the dollar and their past predictions based on momentum. In recent months the dollar has been moving sideways for several months and he expects a mini collapse when it reaches the 101 level. He argues that the world doesn't need a "global reserve currency" in this modern age with communications and near instant computer systems.
Michael believes commodities, including oil and agriculture, are now largely undervalued again. He notes that energy may be lagging in the coming commodity move and uranium has been in a pause and hasn't experienced a pullback, which may be indicative of the world in a new transition to that energy source. He adds that miners are often weak before the real breakout and, once reality sets in, they snap to the upside and outperform gold in relative performance.
Finally, Michael warns of the uncertainty with the coming elections, which doesn't appear to be priced into today's markets. He outlines a scenario that could play out if Trump were to start his own political party, noting that something is going to change fundamentally this election cycle in the United States.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Market Breathing
4:33 - Nasdaq Health
8:03 - Gold PF Chart
12:38 - Gold & Moving Averages
16:45 - Trends & Silver
19:10 - Dollar Performance
28:00 - Oil & Petrodollar
33:02 - Uranium Outlook
34:37 - Flash Crashes
40:42 - Miners Vs. Metals
45:23 - Election Uncertainty
50:52 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- MSA looks at long-term market trends and can show something breaking before the price trend appears.
- Commodities, including oil and agriculture, are now largely undervalued again.
- Uncertainty with the coming elections is not priced into today's markets.
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
#Markets #Momentum #Gold #MovingAverages #Silver #Dollar #Commodities #Petrodollar #URA #Energy #Uranium #Currencies #GoldBacked #Oregon #Illinois #Succession #PoliticalRisk
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David Morgan: Tyranny & The Looming Threat of CBDCs
Tom rejoins silver investor David Morgan to discuss Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). David has already done 30 podcasts examining crypto including possible ties between bankers,elites and the cryptocurrency world. He suggests banking elites desire to control the system via CBDCs is rooted in a reluctance to allow citizens to escape established systems.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
China's CBDC system is functioning successfully, becoming a model for other countries. Governments are expert at economic manipulation, said David, which is why he implores people to contact their representatives directly and express apprehension towards a crypto-central bank initiative. He acknowledges asset-backed cryptocurrencies offer a possible alternative, since they are still under the government's radar.
Opting out of the current financial system is a viable option, but asset backed investments are still small relative to the overall financial system. David doesn't expect anything major to disrupt the system over the summer, so gold is likely to remain quiet. Money holds power, but ultimately freedom is more important. This is why efforts to disrupt status quo are so important.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:00 - CBDC Adoption & Crypto
4:50 - Bank Instability & Control
10:10 - CBDC Uncertainties
11:37 - U.S. CBDC Timelines
16:54 - FedNow Trial Program
18:08 - Gov't Efficiency & Money
19:27 - Sidestepping the System
20:30 - Pressure Politicians
21:48 - Asset Backed Crypto?
24:16 - What Price Freedom?
25:36 - Freedom & Opting Out
28:47 - Precious Metals & Gov't
31:47 - Collapse Scenarios
36:47 - Summer Doldrums?
40:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
- Governments are using Central Bank Digital Currencies to increase their control and prevent people from escaping the system.
- Asset backed crypto currencies may provide an alternative financial structure and offer more freedom.
- There likely won't be any major disruptions to the existing financial system this summer, creating a period of steadiness for precious metals.
Guest Links:
Website: https://silver-investor.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguru
ISO 20022: https://www.progressoft.com/blogs/iso-20022-data-model-holds-the-key-to-cbdc-interoperability
David is a precious metals enthusiast with degrees in finance and engineering, and he originated The Morgan Report. This monthly report covers economic news, the global economy, and substantial capital gains by investing in the Resource Sector. The Model Portfolio includes top-tier, mid-tier, speculative, and special situations.
David considers himself a big-picture macroeconomist whose main job is educating people about honest money and the benefits of a sound financial system.
A dynamic, much-in-demand speaker worldwide, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has interviewed- The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, Investing Rules, and numerous other publications.
As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report, and numerous other publications.
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Michael Kao: Inflation & Asian Financial Contagion
Tom interviews Michael Kao, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, about his views on inflation and the various forces that can affect the price of commodities such as oil. Michael explains the butterfly effect of the pandemic lockdowns, his "commodity inflation butterfly" theory, and how the Fed's actions and OPEC's decisions need to be separated. He believes China understands the geopolitical importance of oil and has begun an EV, coal, and nuclear push to potentially lessen its dependence on oil in the long term. Michael also talks about his worries regarding the Chinese economy and how tariffs and sanctions have dented Russia's revenue.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Michael also talks about his take on the strength of the fiat money system. He argues that going back to a hard money standard would require severe austerity and is unlikely to happen in his lifetime. He believes that for a currency to gain wide adoption, it needs an elastic supply of said currency, which is something that the U.S. dollar has. Additionally, Michael has his doubts about the idea of bricks supplanting the U.S. dollar as a global reserve. He believes that because of the dollar's strong network effects, it would be next-to-impossible for its rivals to take its place.
When discussing the potential of a Minsky moment for China, Michael notes that the cracks already being to appear, but no one knows when or which domino will fall first. He worries that OPEC+ has shot their wad too early and this time around have no Bullets to save them. He is not encouraged by WTI price action and is worried that OPEC+ will eventually have to increase production. All of these factors points to a lot of slack in the market which will push the singularity corridor way out.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - Michael's Viewpoints
5:00 - Dollar Wrecking Ball
6:45 - Hikes & Lynch Pins
13:00 - Gretaverse & Energy
23:22 - OPEC Cuts & the Fed
31:25 - Growth, Capacity & Supply
37:20 - Russian Oil Revenue
40:43 - China Debt Time Bomb
52:10 - Boiling Frogs & ESG
57:46 - Thoughts on Gold
1:05:03 - Dedollarization
1:10:23 - Fiat & Dollar Dominoes
1:12:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The US dollar has a strong network effect and is therefore unlikely to be supplanted as a global reserve currency.
- OPEC cutting supply prematurely could cause high prices and damage demand while the Fed is currently using its tool of raising rates to combat inflation.
- China has begun an EV, coal, and nuclear push to potentially lessen its dependence on oil in the long term and mitigate a Minsky moment.
- The corridor of viability for a supply-demand singularity in the oil market has been pushed out to 2026.
- Going back to a hard money standard would require severe austerity.
Guest Links:
Website/Substack: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/about
Twitter: https://twitter.com/@UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings.
Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.
#Inflation #GreenEnergy #Europe #FiatSystem #OilPrice #USD #Dollar #Yuan #ChinaContagion #Gold #Winter #Oil #OPEC #China #Russia #Greataverse #ESG #Shale #Bonds #Treasuries
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Drew Rathgeber: Futures Simplified - Cost Savings on Precious Metals
Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest Drew Rathgeber, creator of ProGoldTrader.com and an 18 year trading veteran to the show.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Drew began by discussing spot transactions, explaining that the biggest counterparty risk is the company you are dealing with and their policies, as they can change the spread charge at any time. He then discussed spot trading accounts, noting that the biggest risk factor is the lack of regulatory authority and that they are effectively pooled accounts. Similarly, gold ETFs and funds have issues. Noting that the biggest risk is the inability to trade at night and that the market may not move in line with the price of the metal. He then discussed the futures markets, noting that the biggest counterparty risk is the FCM.
Drew the possibility of the US government repricing gold, noting that he does not think it will ever happen, but it is a risk to consider.
Drew also discussed the advantages of using futures contracts compared to other markets such as crypto. He explained that when using futures contracts, customer funds are held in an escrow account by a Futures Clearing Merchant (FCM). This provides a layer of protection and oversight that is not available in other markets. Drew also touched on the stigma around futures markets, and how they are often seen as being manipulated. He explained that while manipulation does exist, it is important to remember that the goal is profits, and that futures markets were created for hedgers and producers to sell their products at the highest price possible. He also discussed the various sizes of futures contracts, and that it is possible to take delivery of physical metal from these contracts.
Finally, Drew discussed his program, ProGoldTrader, and how it aims to help people with their wealth preservation, learn futures trading, and lower their transaction costs. He believes that gold bugs should focus on the spread charge when investing in gold, as it can take a year or two to recover the cost of the spread. He also encourages people to consult their CPA for their individual tax situation.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:36 - Background & Lessons
4:00 - Understanding Markets
10:12 - Regulated Vs. Unregulated
12:34 - Case Study & Premiums
15:00 - Educating and E-Book
16:37 - Average Annual Gold Moves
18:42 - Collectors Vs Investors
21:33 - Market Types & Risks
26:18 - Futures Complexities
27:32 - FCM & Segregation
30:34 - Manipulation?
32:45 - Industry & Futures Uses
34:40 - Contract Sizes
35:37 - Taking Delivery
36:42 - Counterparty Risks
38:51 - Gold ETF Funds
41:42 - Gov't Gold Repricing
43:03 - Ultimate Gold Goals
44:10 - Pro Gold Trader
46:42 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Spot transactions carry counterparty risk via companies who can change the spread charge at any time.
- Futures contracts offer a layer of protection due to funds being held in an escrow account by an FCM.
- ProGoldTrader is a program to help with wealth preservation and lower transaction costs for investors.
Guest Links:
Website: https://progoldtrader.com
Email: drathgeber@ProGoldTrader.com
Apply Online: https://progoldtrader.com/open-an-account/
Drew Rathgeber got his start trading spot precious metals at one of the nation's largest bullion dealers in Newport Beach, CA in 2004. Then transitioned to futures in 2006, specializing in precious metals. Now is the owner and president of ProGoldTrader.com, which specializes in trading software and execution designed just for bullion traders.
TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS ON FUTURES, AND FUTURES SPREADS INVOLVE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL TRADERS AND/OR INVESTORS. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ACCOUNTS CAN AND MAY LOSE MONEY. ONLY GENUINE RISK CAPITAL, MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, SHOULD BE USED.
#GoldETFs #FuturesMarkets #FCM #Gold #Delivery #ProGoldTrader #SpreadCharges #WealthPreservation #Commodities #Futures
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Rafi Farber: The Inevitable Death of Fiat Currencies
Tom welcomes Rafi Farber back to the show to discuss the consequences of the debt ceiling debate. Rafi is an investor, author, and proponent of the Austrian Business Cycle.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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Farber discussed the possibility of flooding the market with $1 trillion worth of T-bills if a deal is passed, and the potential effects of this. He noted that similar factors were in play during the repocalypse of 2019, such as tax day and quantitative tightening, and that this current situation is worse.
Farber discussed the complexity of the current banking crisis, which is the fifth largest monthly loss for the big banks in deposits ever. He believes that this is due to a combination of deposits going into money market funds, and small scale debt defaults. He also discussed the IMF's worries about the banking crisis becoming worse, and how the main difference between the 2008 banking crisis and the current one is that the Federal Reserve now owns mortgage backed securities.
When asked where he saw inflation heading, Farber explained that the paradox of monetary and non-monetary forces on prices is that lower interest rates will initially drive prices down, but eventually the higher money supply will catch up and cancel out any productivity gains in the supply. This will lead to an exponential growth of money supply that will eventually be unsustainable, leading to the collapse of the banking system.
Farber also discussed the weakening of global currencies, using the British pound as an example. He argued that the UK government's decision to directly finance the government deficit and hand out 70% of paychecks to citizens was "hog wild" and is now leading to a hyperinflationary spiral with food prices at 20%. He then discussed the 10-year bond being at crisis levels, as the Bank of England now owns the bonds instead of retirement funds.
Farber concluded by discussing the importance of paying attention to the current state of the U.S. dollar and other currencies, and the implications this has for the future of the global economy. He argued that the only way to move beyond the skeletal remains of the Bretton Woods system is to trade in gold, but that governments don't want to do this because it's honest and they benefit from stealing. He encouraged people to stay grounded in logic and not overextend themselves, reassuring them that if they do, they will make it to the end of this game.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Ceiling Consequences
5:18 - Liquidity Issues
8:06 - REPOcalypse Thoughts
10:23 - Feds Balance Sheet
11:53 - Banking Deposits?
16:13 - Mortgage Securities
19:12 - Inflation Cycles
22:12 - British Pound
25:49 - Inflation & Metrics
28:20 - The Gold Benchmark
33:40 - BRICS & The Dollar
37:04 - Metal Delivery Months
39:50 - Gold/Silver Ratio
42:24 - Communication Speed
43:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Defaults and deposit problems in the current banking crisis.
- Concerns with the Fed now owning mortgage backed securities.
- Governments don't want to trade in gold because it's honest and they benefit from stealing, so it's important to stay grounded in logic and not overextend oneself.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/RafiFarber
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@endgameinvestor
Articles: https://seekingalpha.com/author/austrolib#regular_articles
Newsletter: https://seekingalpha.com/checkout?service_id=mp_1347
Rafi Farber invests based on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory and covers economic trends for timing the credit cycle. His marketplace service, The Libertarian Investor, helps subscribers manage the risks and profit from the ongoing fiscal and monetary crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. His approach uses gold, silver, and associated stocks and investment vehicles as a low-risk, high-return methodology.
#RafiFarber #AustrianEconomics #Dollar #DebtCeiling #Banking #CapitalFlight #Bonds #Treasuries #Inflation #Hyperinflation #Gold #Silver #Palladium #Repo #BritishPound
859
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Justin Huhn: True Turning Point in the Fuel Market Ahead
Tom welcomes back Justin Huhn to discuss the uranium markets and his recent webinar.
Justin believes that the current low price of uranium is indicative of another inflection point in the uranium industry.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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This is due to the positive news in June 2021, when Sprott's takeover of Uranium Participation resulted in a surge of interest from investors which led to equities doubling and tripling over the course of the following 3 months. This is leading to the establishment of several new physical funds, providing investors the opportunity to buy uranium at a discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV).
The West is facing self-imposed Russian sanctions, making the transportation of uranium more complicated, and resulting in more uranium heading east, while Kazakhstan has formed contracts with both China and Russia for joint ventures. China is looking to rapidly increase its stockpile of uranium, and the G7 nations have recognized this and are working towards excluding Russian influence in the nuclear energy market. This could lead to a structural deficit of 180 million pounds a year in 2023 and uranium funds such as Sprott taking physical pounds off the spot market which could influence the market further.
At the same time, public opinion towards nuclear energy is shifting to be more positive and supportive in the West and United States. The anti-nuclear movement of the 70s was driven by significant financial support from fossil fuel lobbyists, however Germany's attempt to expand renewables and shut down reactors has resulted in higher energy costs and one of the dirtiest grids in Europe. In Japan, public opinion is in strong support of nuclear power, while in the US there is also support. Occidental Petroleum’s CEO has spoken positively about the potential collaboration between fossil fuels and nuclear, pointing out that the fossil fuels are a limited resource so the companies will need to expand.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:20 - Miners & Input Costs
8:25 - Sprott & New Funds
12:56 - Term Market & 2005
20:09 - Russia & Contracts
25:44 - China Reactor Demand
28:22 - Geopolitical Changes
34:23 - Supply Shortages?
38:27 - Nuclear Sentiment Shift
48:23 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The inflection point in the uranium industry has seen multiple physical funds, financial entities and funds competing for physical uranium, potentially suggesting a repeat of the 2005-07 bull market.
- West-East separation is increasing as Western utilities no longer contract with Russia due to sanctions, and East countries such as China are increasing their demand for uranium.
- Public opinion on nuclear energy is shifting more positively, seen in Germany, Japan and the US.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/
Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletter
Twitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsider
Nuclear Now - Oliver Stone: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21376908/
Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin's thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro's "Focus List," as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.
Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.
Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uranium shares. Regrettably, the Uranium Insider Pro subscription letter's subscriber growth and breadth no longer allow him to provide this tool.
The success of Uranium Insider has been gratifying, and the emerging bull market in uranium continues to offer an unusually attractive risk:reward proposition for fellow contrarian investors.
@uraniuminsider #Sprott #Uranium #Nuclear #Energy #Metals #Funds #Underfeeding #Enrichment #Germany #Poland #Russia #Kazakhstan #China #Germany #Japan #Coal #Reactors
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David Kranzler: The Strongest Fundamentals for Gold Since 2008
Tom welcomes back David Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics to the show.
David discusses how companies often reframe their results to be more "socially acceptable". During the tech bubble the game of earnings management evolved; analyst's influence drove the consensus estimates down and then, when the company beat the estimates, it painted a manipulated picture of their financial standing.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
David explains the effect that higher rates have on the housing sector; many households are already overstretched and not prepared to pay for house payments when interest rates increase. We are beginning to return to the liar loan phase which helped cause the 2008 housing crisis with Mortgage-Backed Securities. Similarly, auto loans are also being bundled with both prime quality and riskier loans being sold to investors.
The financial system is dependent on continued growth of the money supply, which drives it. However, if the increase is pulled back too quickly, the entire system can collapse, which will eventually happen. Lastly, David urges people to ignore mainstream media and do their own research.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Reframing Results
10:31 - Rates & Housing Impacts
18:45 - Lending Shenanigans
24:49 - Banking Crises & Rates
29:44 - Inflation Themes & M2
44:50 - Gold & Monetary Systems
49:22 - Confidence in Miners?
56:33 - Mining Risk & Returns
57:45 - Gold & Rising Tides
1:00:00 - Putting a Pin In It
Talking Points From This Episode
- Factors driving the debt cycle globally.
- Why we're in a dangerous period with housing and auto loans .
- Risks around earnings and company financials statements.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamics
Website: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com
Newsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
#DavidKranzler #Housing #Construction #Mortgages #Bubbles #MBS #Economics #Amazon #Miners #Equities #Gold #BullMarkets #M2 #Juniors
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David Brady: Protect Yourself During the Controlled Demolition of the Economy
Tom welcomes back David Brady, CEO, and Co-Founder of Global Pro Traders to discuss the current financial picture. He believes this is the last pull back before a big take off in gold, silver, platinum, and miners. Hedge funds are massively short bonds in particular the 10-year, and the banks are on the opposite side of that trade. History shows that banks are almost always the winners. He provides a few targets he anticipates in the next run.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
David believes we will get a deflationary event at some point in the near future. By the end of the year, he feels a depressionary scenario is likely, with soaring unemployment, bankruptcies, credit card debt, and auto reposessions. Real estate is stagnating, and the banking crisis is worsening. The Fed will cut rates and print, but that might not save the markets this time. We could be looking at a controlled demolition of the economy, with most sectors going down. Prices for necessities will skyrocket, and there won't be many places to put your money.
David believes a mind-shift is occurring in the public with regards to gold and confidence in currencies. We're seeing talk about fertilizers being bad for the environment and the purchasing of farms in the Netherlands. If the politicians don't agree on the debt ceiling agreement, all hell could break loose. The Fed would have to restart the printers as the debt rating falls. We can't just keep borrowing while devaluing the currency, which means some sort of financial reset is inevitable. You want to be in assets proven to hold value through time.
*Time Stamp References:*
0:00 - Introduction
0:42 - Unease & Crises
10:38 - Flash Crash Potential?
19:00 - Interest in Gold?
21:56 - Inflationary Event
26:12 - COT Report Trends
29:10 - Debt Ceiling Theatrics
40:03 - Europe & Dollar Dynamics
43:14 - Dollar & Gold Movement
47:15 - Reality & Growth Goals
54:30 - Concluding Thoughts
*Talking Points From This Episode*
- Hedge funds are short bonds while banks are long; who will be right.
- A great recession is a risk in which prices for necessities will skyrocket.
- We are facing a financial reset, and why the best bet is to invest in assets proven to hold value.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotrader
Sprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
Silver Chartist: https://silverchartist.com
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
#GlobalProTrader #Fed #Markets #Rates #Gold #Silver #Recession #Depression #Equities #Dollar #DXY #FinancialReset #WealthPreservation
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Simon Mikhailovich: Converging Macro Trends are Changing the World as We Know It
Tom welcomes back Simon Mikhailovich. Simon is a contrarian investor, entrepreneur, and the founder of The Bullion Reserve.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Simon discusses the counterparty risks that are present in the financial system and how they can lead to bank failures. He notes how the financial system is a series of daisy chains that, if broken, can cause a domino effect and throw the entire system into question. He also notes the 2008 crisis was fifteen years ago, and in that time the Fed has been unable to end its extraordinary policies. This is resulting in a massive amount of debt that would be impossible to service at higher interest rates. Simon believes that this is leading to a radical deglobalization, higher costs, and a reshuffling of the global supply chain that is highly inflationary. In this environment, he suggests that gold may be a better investment than Bitcoin due to its perceived reliability.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Counterparty Risks
9:45 - Bank Run Prevention
12:33 - Bail Outs & Confidence
14:09 - Social Polarization
20:50 - System Fragility
29:45 - Cost of Living
36:17 - Human Nature & Time
44:00 - Phase Transitions
48:15 - Gold Price & ETF Flows
53:18 - Gold As Insurance
54:44 - Value of the Dollar
58:42 - Rates, Dollar & Gold
1:04:36 - Bitcoin & Adoption
1:10:37 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Counterparty risks in the financial system can lead to bank failures, putting the entire system in question or gridlock.
- The Fed's extraordinary policies since 2008 has resulted in a massive buildup of debt, making servicing it impossible at higher rates.
- In this environment, gold provides a guaranteed level of confidence not available with bitcoin.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/S_Mikhailovich
Website: https://www.bullionreserve.com
Simon A. Mikhailovich is a co-founder, lead manager of The Bullion Reserve, and a director. Mr. Mikhailovich is an entrepreneur and contrarian investor who predicted and profited from the financial crises of 2000 and 2008. Before co-founding TBR in 2014, Mr. Mikhailovich co-founded Eidesis Capital, a special situations investment firm. Between 1998 and 2014, the Eidesis team deployed over $2.5B of capital through special opportunity funds focused on high yield corporate bonds and loans, credit derivatives, distressed CDOs and MBS, and gold. Previously, Mr. Mikhailovich was a Portfolio Manager at Falcon Asset Management, overseeing alternative investments in hard assets, including oil and gas properties, timberlands, and agribusiness. During the credit cycle of the early 1990s, he headed a workouts' team responsible for restructuring multiple businesses in North America and Europe. Mr. Mikhailovich received a M.S. in Business (Finance) from the University of Baltimore and a B.S. from Johns Hopkins University.
#SimonMikhailovich #BullionReserve #Banks #Bailouts #DebtCeiling #SystemicRisk #Default #CounterpartyRisk #Gold #ETFS #Inflation #Manufacturing #Pensions
334
views
Rick Rule: The Moral Crisis of ESG Imposition on Mining Companies
Tom welcomes back the legendary investor Rick Rule to discuss ESG and the mining industry.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Rick Rule argues that ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) should be understood in an entirely different way than proposed by politicians - as technology has made it possible to lift up the lower third of mankind materially speaking. The billionaires flying into Davos shouldn't have the right to tell others what not to do; free-market forces are better solutions for these problems, rather than imposing regulations or central planning on individuals as suggested by "big thinkers" like Justin Trudeau. Rule suggests Canada's refusal to sell natural gas as hypocritical in a world becoming more reliant on energy sources like coal.
As societies become more wealthy, the willingness to pay for improvements like the environment and habitat improvements increases. He notes that without the use of modern fertilizers, we would need twice the arable land to merely survive. For much of humanity, food would become scarcer and or unaffordable. India is doing a lot of research into growing more food in a smaller area, and they are now a net food exporter. We should use every available technology to steward the land and the well-being of humanity.
Solutions already exist and do not need to be imposed by central planners. The success of Central Planners is highly questionable. Socialists have accomplished some amazing, albeit negative things.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Environmental concerns should be addressed through technology, free-market forces & individual solutions rather than regulations or top-down approaches proposed by "big thinkers".
- Canada's refusal to sell natural gas, hypocritical in a world becoming more reliant on energy sources like coal.
- Food production can be improved through technology, research, and modern fertilizers.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:30 - Rick's 'E'SG Position
14:08 - Social-Ist in ESG
17:44 - Governance & Hubris
20:42 - Alternative Energy
24:54 - Governance & Diversity
30:11 - Discussing ESG
30:52 - Efficient Systems?
34:07 - Opposing Ideas & Energy
37:15 - Big Thinkers & Cabals
44:00 - SEC & ESG Guidelines
47:05 - Free Markets & Coercion
48:00 - Biases & Understanding
49:38 - Rule Symposium & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickrule
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
July Conference: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumonNaturalResourceInvesting2023#/?affl=PalasaidesRadio
Bootcamp: https://www.rulesymposium.com/bootcamp
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.
#RickRule #ESG #WEF #Technology #Economics #Food #Commodities #Carbon #Energy #Skills #Humanity #FreeMarkets #Capitalism #Socialism
242
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8
comments
Jonathan Davis: 2023 Could be as Bad as 2008
Tom welcomes Economist and Wealth Advisor Jonathan Davis back to the show.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Jonathan believes we could be repeating the 2008 banking crisis. Central bankers make incorrect statements about the future and have their own agendas often connected to politics. The Fed is surrounded by incapable academics and often behind the curve.
Real estate mortgages will have to be reset at higher rates, and unemployment is likely to rise. Interest rates and inflation don't always work together, and there's little value in bonds for long-term investors. Commodities are in a state of collapse, and manufacturing is in contraction globally. China has a large debt and had to implement harsh lockdowns. Western countries are still closing nuclear plants while Japan and China are opening new reactors.
The next major risk-off event could be soon and gold will rebound when it happens. He advises investing in funds for specific asset classes rather than individual stocks.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - History Repeating?
3:30 - Data Dependent
6:14 - Inflation Ahead?
9:00 - Rates & Charts
14:07 - Long-Term Treasuries?
15:43 - Bias, Fed & Complacency
18:17 - Equities Sell Off & Gold
21:49 - Commodity Crash & China
25:52 - Gold & Heart Conditions
29:13 - U.K Mid Caps & DXY
34:05 - Lagging Miners?
35:52 - Uranium Thoughts
40:45 - Best Markets for Metals
42:46 - Overall Recovery Themes
50:40 - Historic Dow Chart
53:14 - Strategies & Funds
56:25 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The 2008 banking crisis seems to be repeating.
- Commodities are in a collapse along with global manufacturing.
- Focus on investing with funds for specific asset classes rather than picking individual stocks.
Guest Links:
Website: https://jonathandaviswm.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/j0nathandavis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/boomsbusts
Jonathan Davis BA MBA FCII FPFS, Chartered Financial Planner, is the Wealth Adviser. He is a former Chairman of the London Region of The Institute of Financial Planning (now Chartered Wealth Management Institute).
Jonathan has been delivering wealth advice since 1987. Johnathan established the Jonathan Davis Wealth Management in January 2007, where they provide a niche Wealth Management advising a small number of clients. He established this firm in January 2007.
He has over 1000 appearances in the press, radio, and TV. He is often asked to comment on financial issues.
#JonathanDavis @boomsbusts #Banks #BankCrisis #Inflation #GlobalRecession #Tech #Crypto #FUD #Crude #Uranium #Gold #Silver #Investing #Bonds #China
313
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Tavi Costa: The Interest Rate Wrecking Ball
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Tavi discusses how debt is squeezing the margins of companies and earnings are becoming increasingly problematic. Many believe the issues have been resolved, but mis-marking of balance sheets is affecting numerous sectors, such as banking, commercial real estate, and junk bonds. Yields are rising due to excessive debt issuance over recent years and the most aggressive fiscal policy relative to unemployment. With conflicting policies, it's hard to see gold not doing well in this environment. Oil markets and energy remain tight due to a dearth of capital spending and the use of strategic reserves by governments.
Everyone is now worrying about liquidity, and it appears likely the Fed will have to intervene at some point. Commodity businesses related to precious metals, particularly exploration and development, are trading at historically undervalued levels. This is setting up what might well be one of the best times to invest in the gold space, as the market is yet to understand the resource sector. Numerous companies with major discoveries are still trading at suppressed levels, offering a great opportunity.
*Time Stamp References:*
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - Rates, Debt & Consequences
6:50 - Factors to Consider
14:30 - Central Bank Reserves
18:30 - Bond Performance
26:00 - Energy & Investment Themes
33:00 - Explorers & Producers
40:00 - Capital Positioning
45:30 - Other Metals
52:00 - Wrap Up
*Guest Links:*
► Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta
► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_Capital
► Website https://crescat.net
► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/
*Talking Points From This Episode:*
► Outlook for the economy in an ever increasing debt system.
► Lack of capital expenditures in resources will exacerbate problems in energy and metals.
► Resource companies with solid fundamentals continue to trade at historic undervaluations.
_Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University._
#TaviCosta #CrescatCapital #Rates #Debt #Spending #Deficit #Gold #CentralBanks #Bonds #Oil #China #Trade #Commodities #Miners #Explorers
136
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Jeff Clark: Hitting Paydirt in Mining Stocks
Tom welcomes Jeff Clark back to the show! Jeff is the Founder of GoldAdvisor.com and author of the new book "Paydirt." He started outlining the book during Covid, with the goal of making it entertaining and engaging, yet simple and straightforward. Sixteen other experts from the industry also contributed to the book.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Jeff believes we are on the cusp of another bull market cycle, and mining is one of the few areas left with good return potential. When it enters the mania phase, he won't hesitate to sell, as it's important to lock in profits. He urges investors to not be afraid to sell miners, as they should be seen as girlfriends rather than wife material.
Jeff then explains the Lassonde Curve and how it can help investors understand where a mining equity is during the lifecycle of a developing project. He also stresses the importance of discipline when positioning, recognizing red flags in miners, and taking advice from those in the industry.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Learning how to pick good miners and why Jeff wrote "Paydirt".
- Why excellent opportunity remains in the mining sector.
- Important lessons from geologists and timing in the mining cycle.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:42 - Paydirt Picking Miners
4:08 - Passion & Opportunity
6:34 - Gold Rush Mind Set
9:13 - Gold, Silver, or Stocks
12:18 - Miners & Insomnia
14:53 - Phase of the Cycle
18:12 - Lessons & Gains
19:27 - Silver Demand & Uses
22:15 - Energy & Industrial Uses
24:05 - Silver & Fuel Rods
25:45 - Metals & Price
27:10 - Geologist Lessons
30:05 - The Lassonde Curve
33:20 - Timing & Mining Cycle
36:46 - Royalty & Streaming?
38:36 - The Deal Breakers
40:36 - Portfolio & Discipline
42:54 - Entry and Exits
44:42 - Information Resources
46:16 - Paydirt & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://thegoldadvisor.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheGoldAdvisor
Website: https://goldsilver.com
Jeff Clark is an accomplished metals and mining analyst, author and speaker, recognized as a global authority on precious metals. His roots in the industry are deep, with an award-winning gold panner father and family-owned mining claims in California, Arizona, and Nevada. Jeff has just authored his new book "Paydirt!" which is available at thegoldadvisor.com. Jeff is an active investor and writer, and has previously served as senior editor for the renowned publication BIG GOLD, as well as Senior Precious Metals Analyst for Hard Assets Alliance and a Senior Editor for Casey Research. He is currently on the board at Strategic Wealth Preservation, a bullion storage facility in Grand Cayman, and provides analysis and market commentary for GoldSilver.com. Jeff is a regular conference speaker, including at Cambridge House and Sprott Resources events, the Silver Summit, and many others.
#JeffClark @TheGoldAdvisor #Gold #Silver #JuniorMining #Miners #Mining #Nuclear #Royalty #Streaming #Equities
216
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Michael Pento: The Fed Can't Control Inflation without Bursting All Asset Bubbles
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, to the program.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Michael compares the huge increase in debt leading up to the 2008 financial crisis and the current debt bubble. Pento highlighted the $68.9 trillion in total non-financial debt that is currently outstanding, which is double the amount of debt prior to the crisis. He notes that this was caused by the Federal Reserve taking interest rates to 1% and then to 0%, which created an artificial edifice known as the US economy. Pento described how the Fed’s balance sheet went from $800 billion in 2007 to $9 trillion in 2022, which caused misallocations of capital and asset bubbles. He warns that the only way to bring down inflation was to pop the bubbles, but that this would cause further economic destruction. He explains that this cycle of inflation-deflation would eventually lead to an inflation oppression, in which high rates of inflation would be combined with low economic growth. He coined this term “infla-pression” back in 2012.
Michael discusses the four horsemen of the economic apocalypse, which are cash, US sovereign debt, the dollar and shorts. He believes that the Federal Reserve's BTFB has prevented a liquidity crisis and created a number of zombie banks. He has been investing in gold and miners, and his current allocation is 14%. He is waiting to see further erosion in economic growth before he increases his gold allocation to 20%. He advises that 5% of investments should be in physical gold, and the rest could be in liquid or paper gold. He believes that now is the time for people to buy the dip in precious metals.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - 2008 Debt Crisis & Today
3:30 - A Perfect System
5:45 - Yellen & Q.E. Lite
6:52 - Inflationary Cycles
8:57 - Asset Bubbles & Inflation
14:36 - Infla-pression
16:00 - The Four Horseman
19:47 - Rates & Allocations
22:05 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The US non-financial debt is double the amount prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
- Michael coined the term “infla-pression” which is a combination of high inflation and low economic growth.
- Michael advises that now is likely the time to buy the dip in precious metals.
Guest Links:
Website: http://pentoport.com
E-Mail: mpento@pentoport.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Last Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv5wARHQcMY
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, with over 27 years of investment experience. He was the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios that raised over $3 billion, distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. He is the author of the book "The Coming Bond Market Collapse" and has a weekly podcast called "The Mid-week Reality Check."
#MichaelPento #Debt #AssetBubbles #Deficits #DebtCatastrophe #Inflation #Housing #Bonds #Equities #Cash #SoverignDebt #Dollar
336
views
4
comments
Greg Weldon: The Crowd is Just Waking Up to the Gold Trade
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Greg Weldon. Greg is publisher of Weldon Live and an Veteran Commodity trader.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Almost a trillion dollars of consumer credit has been created, and there is fear that banks will scale back lending, resulting in further market declines. If central banks pull back from lending, problems could arise quickly. A contraction in credit is possible, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be testing the boundaries.
Paul Volcker is Powell's hero, but the debt load today is much higher than it was in the 1980s. Inflation base effects are just now starting to kick in. We could see further declines in energy, which will temporarily impact inflation. The Fed may need to back off sooner than they wanted.
The charges on credit cards are at record levels due to people's need to pay bills. Everything is costing more, and borrowing at high interest rates is a problem. Rents are near all-time highs, so the pain will persist. Greg believes the Fed is almost done and could hold this level, or even start easing. They appear to have enough ammunition for the next recession.
Everyone knows there are issues coming with pensions and other parts of the financial system. Difficult times are coming and people need to prepare. When looking to protect financial assets, it will become increasingly difficult. Stocks may rise, but inflation may eat those gains, making it hard to keep up.
The writing is on the wall in regards to the US dollar and its manipulation of other nations' economies. Now that China's economy is surpassing that of the US, the global tone is changing. Lastly, he talks about his thoughts on gold targets, real rates, and the direction of the dollar.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Fed & Consumer Credit
3:38 - MMT & Lack of Growth
6:09 - Bank Deposit Concerns
8:20 - Inflation Re-Targeting
10:22 - Consumer Concerns
17:44 - Fed: 1980s & Today
26:35 - Public Debt & Pensions
29:15 - Diversifying Globally
32:36 - Inflation & Energy
36:12 - Dollar & China
39:10 - Gold Targets
44:37 - Real Rates Outlook
47:04 - Other Sectors
49:50 - Commodity Nations
51:32 - Energy & Gas Inventories
54:05 - Nickel Fraud
56:29 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- High consumer credit, combined with banks' potential scaling back of lending, could result in a contraction in credit and further market declines.
- Everyone needs to prepare for difficult times ahead, as it will become increasingly difficult to protect financial assets.
- The global financial tone is changing, which could impact gold targets, real rates, and the direction of the dollar.
#GregWeldon #Debt #Banks #Consumers #Inflation #Recession #Confidence #Rents #Credit #Energy #Bitcoin #RealRates #China #Gold #Gasoline #Nickel #LME
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Adam Hamilton: The Fed Cannot Stop Inflation, Gold will Shine
Tom welcomes back Adam Hamilton, founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service and is a market speculator.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Adam discusses the seasonality in gold, which typically sees three different rally periods each year, similar to agricultural commodities. However, there is no fundamental reason for gold's spring rallies - it seems people are simply more optimistic during this time, leading to more buying of gold stocks, starting around mid-March and ending around May.
Adam explains how moving averages are useful for determining if equities are overbought or oversold, and suggests raising trailing stops to preserve gains when it is significantly overbought. He notes that the Fed is under pressure from other central banks that are pausing on hiking, causing huge problems in the economy and instability in banks - rate hikes are hitting ordinary people hard, and those with mortgages could become increasingly vulnerable.
Adam expects the Fed to hike one more time and then pause to see the impact, closely monitoring labor markets data, although he is aware that some of the U.S. BLS data is highly suspect. Alternative data sets are showing declining labor growth, and if labor markets are far weaker than expected, this could have outsized consequences when Fed policy is mis-applied. He believes that the dual mandate should not exist, and the Fed's focus should simply be on price stability - inflation is just an effect caused by too much money in the system, and the value of money should be set by free markets.
Silver is seen as a sentiment gauge for gold and has been doing well, although futures buying is waning. Gold above 2000 is attracting a lot of interest.
Lastly, he discusses the miners and why investor sentiment is taking time to adjust to this new market environment.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Spring & Seasonality
6:06 - C.B. Hike Pauses & Fed
9:04 - Feds Path Forward
10:12 - Expectations & Pausing
12:22 - Jobs, The BLS & JOLTS
22:26 - Feds Dual Mandate?
24:55 - COT Positioning
28:02 - Institution Interest
31:40 - Base Effects & CPI
33:50 - Silver Markets & ETFS
37:09 - Miners & Sentiment
38:48 - Efficiency & Production
42:44 - Information Sources
46:22 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Seasonality and sentiment in the precious metal markets.
- The Feds path forward and the problems with it's dual mandate.
- Silver as a sentiment gauge for gold and institutional interest.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.zealllc.com/
Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htm
Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on task like most other professions.
After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting, and entrepreneurship. Adam went on to be a Big Six CPA and consultant after graduation, never stopping learning.
By early 2000, Adam finally had enough experience and capital to found Zeal at 25 years old. Rather than hide his research and trading work in a hedge fund, Adam wanted to help others thrive in the markets. So he started sharing his now-world-famous market research work through very-affordable newsletters.
Customers raved, and many millions of dollars of newsletter sales later Adam was blessed to become a self-made millionaire. He is very thankful to be living his dream, and plans to research, trade, and share wisdom through newsletters for the rest of his life. Adam is a Christian saved by Jesus Christ. He and his wife are greatly blessed with 2 children, and they live in Colorado.
#Gold #Dollar #CentralBanks #Fed #Pivot #Inflation #Labor #Debt #Consumers #Mortgages #COTReport #Miners #MiningCosts #Silver
127
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Kevin Wadsworth & Patrick Karim: Breakouts on the Charts Leading to Larger Moves for Gold and Silver
Tom welcomes back the dynamic charting duo Patrick Karim and Kevin Wadsworth. They discuss how we are starting to see a potential breakout for gold as it touches multiple points while building out a new trend line. On the monthly chart, we have nearly had a confirmed breakout. If this month closes around the current level, it will confirm a monthly breakout. We need to see capital flows move into gold, which you can spot with ratios like gold to the SPX. It doesn't take much capital rotation for gold to breakout. The gold charts display evidence of being far away from their natural position and there is a build up of latent investment energy that could easily be explosive.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Patrick explains how Ichimoku clouds work in technical analysis by measuring market strength over time. Markets can break through when clouds are narrow, and you should treat these, along with other indicators like moving averages. Many of their charts point to a high point in metals markets towards the end of the 2020s.
It is important to consistently question your analysis as new information arrives and compare past bull markets to see where things may head in the coming years. They provide a demo live analysis for determining the strength and entry point for a market. Initial breakouts are often not the move you are waiting for, as markets take time to establish a base and wash out the bag holders.
They analyze the Dollar Index Milkshake theory to measure the potential weight of evidence. Gold tracks purchasing power more than the dollar index. Much dollar demand comes from overseas, and this may be gradually changing.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Golds Breakout?
6:12 - Gold/SPX & ASA
13:00 - Profit Levels
15:13 - Ichimoku Clouds
19:22 - Historic Analysis
25:50 - Breakout Ratings
44:00 - Thesis & Plans
48:24 - DXY Milkshake Theory
58:05 - Dollar Demand Surge?
1:02:55 - Miner Paradigm
1:10:27 - Probabilities
1:14:26 - Uranium ETF Chart
1:22:00 - Crypto Thoughts
1:23:21 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthStarCharts
Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Advisor consists of linking with the emergency response community. He gives advance notice of life-threatening weather events and advice during events influenced by the weather, such as wildfires and industrial accidents.
The science behind weather forecasting aims to unlock methods and techniques for predicting the future with ever-increasing accuracy. A friend and colleague helped spark an interest in the global economy and the financial world in the early 2000s. The financial crash of 2008 got Kevin hooked, and he gradually became aware of the similarities between forecasting the future weather and forecasting future price movements in the financial markets. Around that time, he read an abridged version of Strauss and Howes 'The Fourth Turning', which intrigued him.
The cyclical nature of markets mirrors the cyclical nature of the weather and seasons. The process of gathering evidence via multiple computer models that assess the likelihood of all possible future outcomes works just as well for predicting the future price of gold for indicating whether it's likely to rain on the weekend or not.
His focus is on tuning out all the noise and presenting clear and uncluttered charts while gathering all the evidence. Kevin tries to have no bias, but instead follows the weight of evidence. He says, I'm not a bull or a bear; I'm simply presenting the evidence as I see it.
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.
#PatrickKarim #KevinWadsworth #Charts #TechnicalAnalysis #Markets #PreciousMetals #Gold #Silver #Uranium #Dollar #DXY
297
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2
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Adrian Day: Negative Real Rates Means More Inflation Ahead
Tom welcomes Adrian Day back to the show. They discuss the lag in economic consequences as a result of rate hikes and changes in monetary policy. Adrian notes that the impacts vary depending on market sector, and that the overall economic effect has yet to be felt. He explains that during lockdowns, spending patterns changed, and coming out of them, the spending habits changed again, with savings rates collapsing back to pre-COVID levels and credit card balances rising. Consumers are feeling the pinch, and more debt defaults and corporate bankruptcies are likely to come.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Adrian then discusses three areas where they are finding yield in this environment. He is not a major bull on the price of oil, but does not expect a major decline either. He also notes that due to a slowing global economy, some ESG targets may not be achievable for a while. He is looking for opportunity in copper and lithium companies.
He believes that the market is underestimating Fed Chair Jerome Powell's will to cause a recession, and that the Fed is willing to see markets decline significantly. As such, he feels that the markets are being overly optimistic in assuming that rates will decline by the end of the year. In his opinion, central banks have entered a complex situation of their own making, and cannot kill inflation without causing a recession and further problems in the financial system. He believes that gold is far and away the best asset class to hold during periods of stagflation.
Timestamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:45 - Monetary Policy Lag
11:12 - Bank Failures
14:15 - Bonds & Stock Balancing
16:25 - Finding Yield
27:32 - Global Economic Outlook
32:10 - Electrification
35:58 - Geographic Diversification
39:17 - Gold Price & Inflation
48:55 - Bailouts & Moral Hazard
51:57 - Feds Path Forward
56:43 - Commodity Countries
58:10 - Consensus Thoughts
1:00:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- The economic effects of rate hikes and changes in monetary policy are still yet to be seen, but consumer spending patterns have already changed drastically.
- Adrian Day is looking for yield opportunities in copper and lithium companies.
- He believes gold is the best asset class to hold during periods of stagflation.
- The market is underestimating Jerome Powell's will to cause a recession and see equity declines.
Guest Links:
Website: https://adriandayassetmanagement.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.
#AdrianDay #EuroPacific #Rates #FedPolicy #Consumers #Spending #Inflation #Debt #ConsumerDebt #Bankruptcy #Banking #Yield #NatGas #Energy #GlobalEconomy #Gold #ESG #Electrification #Copper #Jurisdiction
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James Anderson: On the Cusp of a Mega Bull Run in Gold
Tom welcomes James Anderson back from SD Bullion to the show. James discusses the recent surge in gold demand due to problems in the banking system, with some depositors buying up gold out of concern. They have seen record volume which has prompted them to place temporary minimum order limits, as it is difficult to increase staffing levels to meet this sudden demand.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Central banks have been buying gold at near record levels, likely exceeding any past historic period, and much of this gold is flowing to eastern countries as they seek greater degrees of sovereignty.
James believes we are on the cusp of a mega bull run in gold. Many investors will have to learn the hard way since the US has not experienced difficult times for many decades.
He expresses concern about ETFs possibly not having the metals they claim, and eventually when demand exceeds supply, bullion supply will become scarce. He also warns of bad actors in the retail space who push overpriced metals, charge terrible fees, and pilfer from the vulnerable. He advises sticking with physical bullion and buying from local coin shops or reputable dealers online, with transparent pricing and reasonable premiums.
Lastly, James discusses the currency situation in Turkey, which has declined over the past decade, and the increase in gold flowing into that country.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:32 - Gold Market & Banks
3:34 - Dealers & Staffing
6:00 - Central Bank Buying
8:28 - Gold Demand & Prices
10:48 - Public Perception
17:26 - Gold & Industry
19:28 - Silver Supply/Demand
22:10 - Silver Squeeze
25:22 - Dollar & BRICS
28:00 - CBDC Currencies
32:50 - Fraud in Metals
36:27 - Crypto & Scams
39:16 - Industry Surprises
40:25 - Wrap Up & Turkey
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold demand has exploded and Central Banks are buying at near record levels.
- The US dollar is bearish long-term as the BRICS roll out alternative payment systems, which will eventually lead to the CBDC solution.
- Some retailers are pushing overpriced metals and charging terrible fees, look for reputable dealers.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameshenryand
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/sdbullion/videos
Website: https://sdbullion.com/
Blog: https://sdbullion.com/blog
James Book: https://sdbullion.com/21st-century-gold-rush-book
Cat Highlight: https://youtu.be/xqtr6spMCGs?t=269
A bullion buyer years before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, James Anderson is a grounded precious metals researcher, content creator, and physical investment grade bullion professional. He has authored several Gold & Silver Guides and been featured on the History Channel, Zero Hedge, Gold-Eagle, Silver Seek, Value Walk, and many more.
Given that repressed commodity values are now near 100-year low-level valuations versus large US stocks, investors and savers should buy and maintain a prudent physical bullion position. Continued stimulus and unfunded promises will only debase the dollar further.
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Lee Adler & Bob Coleman: More Turmoil to Come in the Banking Sector
Tom welcomes Lee Adler and Bob Coleman back to the show to discuss the banking system, the role of the U.S. Treasury, and the current state of the banking and employment markets.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Adler explains that money pumping by the Fed ended a year ago and that tracking the ICI data on money market funds will be a big key to watch. He also mentioned the potential risks in the banking system which could lead to another crash in equities. Coleman and Adler discussed the current employment market and consumer debt levels, and how the passive investing craze could lead to a lack of liquidity in the market. They highlight the importance of storing gold in a safe jurisdiction and the risks associated with custodians.
Adler suggested that the best indicator of when the next crash may occur is to look for someone calling gold a pet rock again, or for gold to be touted as the only insurance policy. Coleman believes the Fed's CPI numbers are designed to manipulate the public and that gold is a good indicator of confidence. He also gives advice on how to understand the monetary policy landscape while filtering out the politics.
The two concluded by suggesting investors watch the return on their money due to inflation and taxes. Adler and Coleman's conversation provided insight into macro liquidity, the risks associated with the banking system, and the importance of understanding the monetary policy landscape.
0:00 - Introductions
0:55 - Macro Liquidity
5:15 - Fed Reaction Mode
7:09 - Q.E. Vs. Bailouts
12:54 - Banking Sector Problems
17:10 - Deposit Outflows & Stocks
22:34 - Reverse Repos
28:30 - Debt Ceiling
31:30 - Rates & Bank Runs
40:03 - Good Ole Yellen
42:06 - Depositor Insurance
44:57 - Gold & Confidence
49:44 - Recession Thoughts
53:30 - Gold & Cycles
57:56 - More Bank Turmoil?
1:00:28 - Gold & Liquidity Flows
1:04:12 - Commercial Real Estate
1:06:48 - Consumer Debt & Layoffs
1:12:42 - Manipulation & Risk
1:16:14 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Macro liquidity is an important factor to watch to assess the state of the market and whether the situation is stabilizing.
- Gold is a good indicator of confidence in the markets and can be used as an insurance policy against a crash.
- When investing, it is important to consider the risks associated with custodians and exchanges, and to understand the monetary policy landscape.
Guest Links - Lee Adler:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/lee_adler
Website: https://liquiditytrader.com
Articles: https://wallstreetexaminer.com/
Articles: https://capitalstool.com
Lee Adler is published on LiquidityTrader.com, The Wall Street Examiner, and Capitalstool. He also published and was the lead analyst for Sure Money Investor and developed David Stockman's Contra Corner.
He has been in finance since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities.
Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner Lee was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years and specialized in the analysis of failed properties. He also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s.
Lee has been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since he was a teenager. Yogi Berra said, "You can observe a lot by watching. I've seen a lot through the years, and have incorporated much of it into my research."
He says, "I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you."
Guest Links - Bob Coleman:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Presentation: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/webinars
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.
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Vincent Lanci: The Most Important Weekly Close for Gold Ever
Tom welcomes Vincent Lanci back to the show to discuss the importance of this week's gold close. If it is the highest ever, it could mean bullish continuation trends as money gets reallocated. He noted the changes he has seen in the gold market, such as Basel III putting a floor in gold, and the eastward shift of gold demand. He discussed the lack of trust in the metals markets, the differences between gold and silver, and the correlations between different commodities.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Vincent discussed the potential path forward for inflation in the context of the current recession, and the actions the 'BRICS' are taking to separate their economies from US dollar hegemony. He outlined Zoltan Pozsar's concept of the "Three Prices of Money," where investors should have a piece of the old economy, a piece of the potential new economy, and a bridge between the two.
Overall, Vince discussed why this week's gold close is so important, and how investors should be prepared to navigate a changing economy as businesses move to other countries and new technologies and renewable energy sources become more prevalent.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:38 - Golds Performance
9:10 - Inflection Points
14:43 - Gold Flowing East
20:53 - Manipulation & Trust
25:18 - Silver Lagging?
29:58 - Other Commodities
35:14 - Recession & Inflation
41:08 - Long Gold & Short Bonds
42:44 - Zoltan Pozsar & BRICS
47:00 - Exter's Pyramid
49:37 - Bond Demand, YCC & Japan
59:20 - Actionable Advice
1:06:35 - Bullion'N'Boobs
1:09:56 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- This week's gold close could potentially be the highest weekly, monthly and quarterly close ever, signaling bullish continuation trends.
- Price leadership has moved east due to the East-West cold war and de-globalization, resulting in more gold flowing east and a potential end of the petro dollar.
- Zoltan Pozsar's idea of the three goals suggests investors should own a piece of the old economy (black gold), a piece of the potential new economy (white gold), and a bridge between the two (yellow gold) to prepare for the US dollar weakening in buying power.
Guest Links:
Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/PalisadesTomSpecial
Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/VlanciPictures
ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS's parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003 Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000 he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.
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Rick Rule: Gold & Natural Resources About to Outperform other Asset Classes
Tom welcomes back the legendary investor Rick Rule to discuss current events in the banking system.
Rick discusses the systemic risks that exist in the commercial banking system, citing the example of Silicon Valley Bank.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
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He provides advice on how the average depositor can assess the financial stability of their financial institution, such as looking at the percentage of total capital represented by equity, the duration mismatch, and the amount of very liquid assets relative to the deposit base. He also warned of a potential “perfect storm” in commercial real estate if banks become less willing to lend and if high yield ETFs experience mass redemptions.
Rule believes that banks should prioritize security and confidence as the primary goal, with diversity and inclusion as a secondary goal. He advises investors to do their research and read balance sheets and income statements to ensure their money is held in a safe place. Natural resources have been systemically underinvested in for the last several decades and that they will likely outperform other investment classes over the next 10 years. For most of his money, he is chasing beta, or outperformance of natural resources relative to other investment classes, by investing in the biggest and best companies in the sector. For the remaining 20-25%, he is looking for alpha by speculating, particularly through private placements. He believes that the best time to achieve alpha is in a market panic, and that investors should be willing to bet big when the odds are stacked in their favor.
Rick also hosts bootcamps to help educate investors and pass on the lessons he has learned throughout his career. In retirement, he is still working 40-50 hours a week, but only on things he enjoys and finds fulfilling. He believes that high interest rates are not enough to change his outlook on gold, as long as real interest rates remain negative.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Research and read balance sheets and income statements to ensure your money is held in a safe place.
- Natural resources have been systemically underinvested in for the last several decades and may outperform other investment classes in the next 10 years.
- Bet big when the odds are stacked in your favor to achieve alpha during a market panic.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:43 - Banking Risks
5:17 - Yields & Belief
10:50 - Return Free Risk
15:29 - Purchasing Power
18:07 - Deposit Guarantees
21:25 - Regulatory Environment
24:38 - Security & Free Markets
27:49 - Banking Risks & Leverage
33:40 - Low Rates & Contagion
36:32 - Safely Parking Cash?
39:05 - Portfolio Structure
45:14 - Market Tops
47:42 - Boot Camps
51:45 - Semi-Retirement
53:45 - Rates & Selling Thesis
55:28 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickrule
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
July Conference: https://www.rulesymposium.com/2023
Bootcamp: https://www.rulesymposium.com/bootcamp
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.
#RickRule #BankingSystem #SystemicRisk #SiliconValleyBank #DepositorAdvice #RealEstate #CapitalEquity #DurationMismatch #LiquidAssets #Confidence #BalanceSheets #IncomeStatements #NaturalResources #Beta #Alpha #MarketPanic #Bootcamps
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Spaces: New Risk Landscape and Trouble In The Metals, Gold $2000+
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
This is an edited rebroadcast of our recent Twitter Spaces conversation on banking, metals, trust, cryptocurrencies and the faltering global dollar system.
Bob Coleman discusses the problems in the banking system and the tough position the Fed is between preserving the system and preventing inflation. They're trying to slow the contagion, but we may be experiencing a false sense of security. If things break from here, we could see things get out of control. The belief is the Fed will always have our back, but in today's world there is considerable risk.
Reggie Middleton expresses his concerns around the SEC's use of selective enforcement, particularly in the crypto space. There is a length discussion on building trust in digital assets and potential risks with some types of cryptocurrencies.
Jaime and David discuss the usefulness of both Gold and Bitcoin. We need both systems if we are to get through the coming financial reset. It will be important to have investments in various areas because it remains uncertain what the future financial system will be based on. David argues that a bi-metallic standard may once again become important.
Bob Coleman - Idaho Armored Vault
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jaime Carrasco - Portfolio Manager at Canaccord Genuity Inc
Twitter: https://twitter.com/IJCarrasco
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/
Website: Canaccord Genuity https://www.canaccordgenuity.com/
David Morgan - Morgan Report
Website: https://silver-investor.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22
Blog: https://www.themorganreport.com/blog
Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with Allendale
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1
Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Reggie Middleton
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ReggieMiddleton
#Banking #Risks #Contagion #Bonds #Derivatives #Fed #COT #Silver #Gold #SEC #Contagion #Bitcoin #Crypto
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David Hunter: The Epic Last Hurrah for the Markets
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Talking Points From This Episode
- The coming global bust and why inflation will persist.
- We're in the last decade of a forty plus year supercycle.
- His thoughts on energy in the near-term and during the bust.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:40 - Market Re-Cap
4:29 - Meltup Rally Thesis
7:27 - Timelines
9:29 - Fed Policy & Liquidity
16:30 - Policy Lag & Inflation
20:00 - Rates & Liquidity
23:12 - Politics & Powell
29:00 - ECB/BOJ Pivots & Gold
37:44 - Metals Reaction
41:52 - Energy Prices
46:40 - Overall Summary
52:03 - Wrap Up
Guest Links
Email: Dhunter31@gmail.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
#DavidHunter #Markets #Meltup #Fed #Liquidity #FedPolicy #Debt #Ponzi #Inflation #GlobalBust #Oil
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Tom Luongo: The War for the Dollar is Already Over
Tom welcomes back our other favorite Tom, the Tom Luongo, to discuss the recent banking crisis and the Fed's involvement in it. Luongo believes Jerome Powell is trying to return to a classic regional banking model. He explains how the Fed is betraying the Eurodollar system by having SOFR at odds with LIBOR.
*Palisade Radio Links:*
► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca
► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024
► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Luongo believes Powell wants to undo the damages of the last 15 years and feels it is important to understand the motives of the Fed and globalists.
He also suggests that the Fed took out Silicon Valley Bank due to its involvement in crypto, which could have created an escape velocity for trust in those systems, and challenged the Federal Reserve's control of monetary policy and fiscal policy.
Powell's move to guarantee the hole in the regional banks' balance sheets has had a positive impact on the local credit unions, which can now start offering positive savings rates again. Additionally, the Fed has created a sump pump for US Treasury demand here in the US banking system, which transfers risk overseas and helps protect credit spreads. Christine Lagarde has been attempting to manage credit spreads, but is running out of bullets.
Mr. Luongo discusses the recent shift in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, which saw the appointment of Ueda as the new head of the bank. Tom suggests that this signals the end of Quantitative Easing in Japan, and that this could lead to the unwinding of the low-yield carry trades that had been supported by the BOJ's yield curve control. He then explains how this could impact Christine Lagarde's efforts to maintain credit spread stability, as the BOJ's yield curve control had been supporting her efforts. Finally, he speculates that this could lead to a weakening of the Euro, potentially leading to its breaking the parity with the Dollar and going as low as 60 or 70 cents.
Tom explains the differences between Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell and why Yellen is seen as a political animal. He then explains the differences between the East and West in terms of their monetary systems - the East is moving towards a commodity-backed system, while the West is trying to maintain the old system. Tom concludes by discussing the speed of capital flows, and the need for trust in order for a new system to work.
Lastly, the Toms also discussed the importance of reading widely and steel-manning your own arguments to have a strong foundation for forming opinions. Luongo also encouraged listeners to be cautious but avoid panic, and to understand that Davos and other powerful players are still making moves on the board.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
0:50 - Banking Crisis & FED
6:36 - Targeting Inflation
14:46 - Eurodollar & Crypto
17:26 - Bail-Outs & Capitalism
22:10 - Spreads & Domestic Mkt.
29:25 - Rate Risks & Europe
34:20 - Japan & BOJ & Europe
45:10 - LIBOR vs. SOFR
52:33 - Yellen Vs. Powell
58:10 - New Monetary System?
1:02:00 - Dollar & Global Trade
1:10:46 - Remonetizing Gold?
1:18:28 - Picking Rates?
1:20:00 - The Bigger Picture
1:23:42 - Learning & Growth
1:31:14 - The Anti-Info Age
Talking Points From This Episode:
- How Davos and other powerful players still making moves on the board.
- The importance of raising interest rates to 6-7% and focusing on balance sheet and dollar flow reduction.
- The potential de-dollarization of the global economy due to US policies.
- The need for a gold-backed currency to solve the US' unfunded liability problem.
Guest Links:
Website: https://tomluongo.me
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.
Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.
He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, "I've since grown up a lot."
Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company's business model.
Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses.
As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs.
#TomLuongo #Globalism #BankingCrisis #Libor #Sofr #Banking #Japan #BOJ #Powell #Yellen #CreditSpreads #BRICS #Dollar #Eurodollar
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